Traders Market Weekly: Political Risks and Central Banks

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 62 total)
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  • #46003
    Truman
    Participant

    Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 15 decreased by 12,000 to 214,000 (consensus 233,000). The low level of initial claims is somewhat remarkable given the seeming lack of claims in the wake of Hurricane Ian. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending October 8 increased by 21,000 to 1.385 million.

    The key takeaway from the report is that it covers the week in which the survey for the October employment report was conducted. The low level of initial claims will feed expectations for another solid increase in nonfarm payrolls. In turn, it will drive a belief that the Fed is going to stay aggressive with its rate hikes.

    #46004
    Truman
    Participant

    2-yr: +3 bps to 4.59%
    3-yr: +3 bps to 4.60%
    5-yr: +3 bps to 4.38%
    10-yr: +3 bps to 4.16%
    30-yr: +2 bps to 4.15%

    #46026
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    Next UK Prime Minister odds via Ladbrokes:

    Sunak odds-on to replace outgoing Truss
    #RishiSunak 4/5
    #PennyMordaunt 5/2
    #BorisJohnson 3/1
    #BenWallace 12/1
    #KemiBadenoch 20/1
    #BrandonLewis 25/1

    #46030

    ++ +1s on excellent insight above as MONEY truely never sleeps – lol
    as my FAV artist notes “markets are driftin away”

    #46031

    Dow 30,332.80 -91.01 -0.30%
    S&P 500 3,665.59 -29.57 -0.80%
    Nasdaq 10,614.84 -65.66 -0.61%
    VIX 30.20 -0.56 -1.82%
    Gold 1,631.30 -2.90 -0.18%
    Oil 85.71 0.16 0.19%

    #46037
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    More blood in the bond pits today:
    U.S. Treasuries yields to fresh highs for the year.

    2-yr: +4 bps to 4.60%
    3-yr: +6 bps to 4.63%
    5-yr: +10 bps to 4.45%
    10-yr: +10 bps to 4.23%
    30-yr: +9 bps to 4.22%

    Meanwhile the $SPX trades 3666.89 an omen?

    #46070
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.4% (-0.7% for the week)
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.4% (-2.3% for the week)
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.1% (-1.1% for the week)
    India’s Sensex: +0.2% (+2.4% for the week)
    South Korea’s Kospi: -0.2% (UNCH for the week)
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7% (-1.1% for the week)

    #46071
    Truman
    Participant

    Japan’s Core CPI grew at its fastest pace since late 2014 in the September reading while continued weakness in the yen sent it to its lowest level against the dollar since mid-1990.
    The Bank of Japan conducted an emergency bond buying operation after the 20-yr JGB yield increased to a level not seen since mid-2015.
    Press reports suggest that the Biden administration will expand the ban on sales of advanced technology to China to include quantum computing and artificial intelligence.
    Japan’s September CPI 0.4% m/m (last 0.4%); 3.0% yr/yr (last 3.0%).
    September National Core CPI 3.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.8%)
    Hong Kong’s September CPI 4.4% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; last 1.9%)
    South Korea’s September PPI 0.2% m/m (last -0.4%); 8.0% yr/yr (last 8.2%)
    New Zealand’s September trade deficit NZD1.62 bln (last deficit of NZD2.63 bln). September Credit Card Spending 34.1% yr/yr (last 29.3%)

    #46072
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade on a sharply lower note while the pound and Gilts are also under pressure again.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -1.4% (UNCH week-to-date)
    Germany’s DAX: -1.4% (+1.3% week-to-date)
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.8% (-0.8% week-to-date)
    France’s CAC 40: -1.8% (+0.9% week-to-date)
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.7% (+2.0% week-to-date)
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -2.2% (+1.2% week-to-date)

    #46073
    Truman
    Participant

    Press reports from the U.K. suggest that Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak, and former Prime Minister Johnson are the front runners to replace Liz Truss.
    Germany’s parliament voted in favor of suspending its constitutional debt brake. Adidas lowered its guidance for the fiscal year for the third time this year.
    Germany dropped its opposition to an EU gas price cap.
    U.K.’s September Retail Sales -1.4% m/m (expected -0.5%; last -1.7%); -6.9% yr/yr (expected -5.0%; last -5.6%). September Core Retail Sales -1.5% m/m (expected -0.3%; last -1.7%); -6.2% yr/yr (expected -4.1%; last -5.3%). September Public Sector Net Borrowing GBP19.25 bln (expected GBP12.30 bln; last GBP8.58 bln).
    October GfK Consumer Confidence -47 (expected -52; last -49)

    #46074
    Truman
    Participant

    Energy complex futures are lower this morning.

    WTI crude oil futures are down 0.1% to $84.44/bbl
    natural gas futures are down 5.5% to $5.06/mmbtu.

    #46075
    Truman
    Participant

    The S&P 500 futures are down 32 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 146 points and are trading 1.3% below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 224 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value.

    Verizon (VZ 35.65, -1.35, -3.4%) and American Express (AXP 135.97, -6.45, -4.5%) are two of the biggest laggards in premarket action despite both companies reporting better-than-expected earnings.

    #46076
    Truman
    Participant

    Twitter (TWTR 48.64, -3.80, -7.25%): Large job cuts are likely at Twitter when Elon Musk assumes control, according to the Washington Post
    American Express (AXP 134.10, -8.32, -5.84%): beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY22 guidance
    Schlumberger (SLB 46.65, +0.96, +2.10%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs
    Snap (SNAP 7.78, -3.01, -27.90%): beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line, internal outlook for Q4 revs below consensus; ARPU declines to $3.11; also announces $500 mln stock buyback authorization
    CSX (CSX 28.24, +1.16, +4.28%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs
    Verizon (VZ 36.75, -0.25, -0.68%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; reaffirms FY22 EPS guidance
    Whirlpool (WHR 124.99, -6.34, -4.83%): misses by $0.86, misses on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; strategic review of EMEA nears conclusion
    Tenet Healthcare (THC 43.44, -10.88, -20.03%): beats by $0.22, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; also authorizes a $1 bln share repurchase program

    #46077
    Truman
    Participant

    Longer-dated Treasuries are on track for a firmly lower start while shorter tenors are set to begin closer to their flat lines.

    The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.6% at 113.51, on track to add 0.2% for the week.

    2-yr: +2 bps to 4.62%
    3-yr: +3 bps to 4.66%
    5-yr: +3 bps to 4.48%
    10-yr: +6 bps to 4.29%
    30-yr: +9 bps to 4.31%

    #46100

    Dow 31,082.56 748.97 2.47%
    S&P 500 3,752.75 86.97 2.37%
    Nasdaq 10,859.72 244.87 2.31%
    VIX 29.97 -0.01 -0.03%
    Gold 1,659.80 23.00 1.41%
    Oil 85.16 0.65 0.77%

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 62 total)
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