Traders Market Weekly: Fed and BOJ Dribble Ahead

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 31 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #74651
    Truman
    Participant

    Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE 20.21, +2.61, +14.8%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides JulQ EPS in-line, revs in-line; raises FY24 EPS and revenue guidance
    PVH (PVH 117.49, -1.72, -1.4%): beats by $0.28, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS ahead of consensus, revs in-line; guides FY25 EPS in-line, reaffirms FY25 revs guidance; CEO of Tommy Hilfiger Global and PVH Europe to leave
    CrowdStrike (CRWD 339.37, +33.79, +11.1%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs, net new ARR grows 22%; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; raises FY25 EPS and revenue guidance, with midpoints above consensus estimates
    Dollar Tree (DLTR 116.06, -4.24, -3.5%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; reaffirms FY25 EPS guidance, revs guidance; confirms review of strategic alternatives of the Company’s Family Dollar business segment, which could include among others, a potential sale, spin off or other disposition of the business
    United Natural Foods (UNFI 12.62, +0.48, +4.0%): beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line; raises FY24 EPS guidance, guides revs inline
    Thor Industries (THO 94.50, -1.46, -1.5%): beats by $0.33, beats on revs; lowers FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
    Guidewire Software (GWRE 117.66, +9.61, +8.9%): beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line
    Tesla (TSLA 176.05, +1.28, +0.7%): sales in China up 17% in May, according to WSJ
    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSM 156.01, +3.54, +2.3%): price target raised to $170 from $150 at Barclays

    #74652
    Truman
    Participant

    The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 5.2% after last week’s 5.7% drop.

    The ADP Employment Change Report showed an estimated 152,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls in May (consensus 175,000), versus a downwardly revised 188,000 (from 192,000) in April.

    Manufacturing jobs declined by 20,000 and leisure and hospitality showed a weaker hiring trend.
    Large businesses accounted for 98,000 positions, medium businesses accounted for 79,000 positions, and small businesses saw a contraction of 10,000 jobs.
    Annual pay for job-stayers held steady at 5.0% for the third straight month while annual pay for job-changers softened to 7.8%.

    The key takeaway from the report is that it conveys softening job gains and pay growth, which is something that should be relatively pleasing to the Fed’s eye.

    Treasury yields moved lower in response.

    The 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.31% and the 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.77%.

    #74653

    Dow 38,807.33 96.04 0.25%
    S&P 500 5,354.03 62.69 1.18%
    Nasdaq 17,187.90 330.86 1.96%
    VIX 12.63 -0.53 -4.03%
    Gold 2,375.30 27.90 1.19%
    Oil 74.29 1.04 1.42%

    GOAT LIVE version with Southern California marching band & some of best horns ever :)

    #74666
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly higher note while markets in South Korea were closed for a holiday.

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.6%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.3%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.5%,
    India’s Sensex: +0.9%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: HOLIDAY,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7%.

    There was speculation that Chinese solar companies could become the subject of a U.S. regulatory probe.

    Stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen may limit access of certain funds to some value-added market data feeds.

    There was speculation that Chinese solar companies could become the subject of a U.S. regulatory probe.

    Standard & Poor’s cautioned that the potential failure of Saigon Commercial Bank would have far-reaching effects.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Truman.
    #74667
    Truman
    Participant

    Australia
    April Home Loans 4.3% m/m (expected 1.2%; last 3.5%),
    Private House Approvals -1.6% m/m, as expected (last 3.8%),
    Building Approvals -0.3% m/m (last 1.9%).
    April trade surplus AUD6.548 bln (expected surplus of AUD5.370 bln; last surplus of AUD4.841 bln)

    #74669
    Truman
    Participant

    Bank of Japan policymaker Nakamura said that current data supports keeping current policy intact.

    #74670
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade in the green ahead of the European Central Bank’s expected rate cut announcement at 8:15 ET.

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.8%,
    Germany’s DAX: +0.8%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.4%,
    France’s CAC 40: +0.6%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.6%,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.6%.

    The market will be eager to hear commentary from ECB President Lagarde to help shape rate expectations for the next few months.

    The ECB is expected to approve the Greek banking sector’s request to resume dividend payments after more than 15 years.

    Italy’s stats agency raised its domestic growth forecast for 2024 to 1.0% from 0.7% while the initial forecast for 2025 was set at 1.1%.

    #74671
    Truman
    Participant

    Eurozone’s April Retail Sales -0.5% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.7%); 0.0% yr/yr (expected 0.1%; last 0.7%)
    Germany’s April Factory Orders -0.2% m/m (expected 0.6%; last -0.8%)
    Italy’s April Retail Sales -0.1% m/m (expected 0.3%; last -0.2%); -1.9% yr/yr (last 1.9%)
    Spain’s April Industrial Production 0.8% yr/yr, as expected (last -1.3%)
    Swiss May Unemployment Rate 2.4% (last 2.3%)

    #74672
    Truman
    Participant

    Costco (COST 834.79, +0.49, +0.1%): reports adjusted comparable sales growth of +6.5% for May
    Smartsheet (SMAR 42.99, +5.21, +13.8%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY25 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
    lululemon athletica (LULU 335.32, +27.05, +8.8%): beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line, comps up +6%; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY25 EPS above consensus, reaffirms revs guidance; increases repurchase plan
    Semtech (SMTC 41.79, +3.11, +8.0%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line
    Sprinklr (CXM 8.32, -2.52, -23.3%): beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY25 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; appoints Trac Pham as co-Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately
    Five Below (FIVE 111.70, -21.09, -15.9%): misses by $0.03, misses on revs and comps; guides Q2 EPS and revs below consensus; guides FY25 EPS and revs below consensus; lowers FY25 comp guidance
    Victoria’s Secret (VSCO 21.95, -0.66, -2.9%): beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line; reaffirms FY25 revs guidance
    ChargePoint (CHPT 1.699, -0.03, -1.8%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus

    Reviewing overnight developments:

    #74673
    Truman
    Participant

    NIVIDA (NVDA 1245.90, +21.60, +1.8%): up nearly 2.0% premarket after topping $3 trillion in market value yesterday

    Old Dominion (ODFL 171.00, -4.70, -2.7%): reports operating metrics for May

    Microsoft’s (MSFT 422.81, -1.20, -0.3%): AI deal being probed by regulators, according to MarketWatch

    #74674
    Truman
    Participant

    Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 1 increased by 8,000 to 229,000 (consensus 216,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 25 increased by 2,000 to 1.792 million.

    The key takeaway from the report is the uptick in initial jobless claims, which will be seen as a sign of some loosening in the labor market.

    Q1 Productivity was revised down to 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) from 0.3%. Q1 Unit Labor Costs were revised down to 4.0% (consensus 4.7%) from 4.7%.

    The key takeaway from the report is the downward revision to unit labor costs. Although a backward-looking report (we’re two-thirds done with Q2), that revision will take out some of the labor cost inflation sting seen in the advance report.

    The April trade deficit widened to $74.6 billion (consensus -$76.5 billion) from an upwardly revised $68.6 billion (from -$69.4 billion). Exports were $2.1 billion more tan March exports, but imports were $8.0 billion more than March imports.

    The key takeaway from the report is that there was an uptick in both exports and imports in April, which is a reflection of increased global trade activity; however, with imports exceeding exports, that will create a drag on Q2 GDP.

    #74675
    Truman
    Participant

    Market AT Lunch

    Dow 38850.40 +43.07 (0.11%)
    Nasdaq 17172.99 -14.93 (-0.09%)
    SP 500 5349.14 -4.89 (-0.09%)
    10-yr Note -1/32 4.294
    NYSE Adv 1205 Dec 1527 Vol 259.0 mln
    Nasdaq Adv 1598 Dec 2532 Vol 3.04 bln

    Industry Watch
    Strong: Communication Services, Financials, Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, Utilities
    Weak: Materials, Industrials, Information Technology

    Moving the Market
    — Not a lot of conviction with market near all-time highs
    — Mixed action mega cap stocks contributing to mixed feeling at index-level
    — Rising market rates acting as limiting factor for equities
    — Digesting this morning’s economic data

    A look inside the DJIA shows that Intel (INTC 30.46, -0.32, -1.04%), 3M (MMM 98.36, -0.70, -0.71%), and Goldman Sachs (GS 459.26, -2.42, -0.52%) are underperforming.

    Salesforce (CRM 242.66, +6.13, +2.59%) bouncing

    #74676
    Truman
    Participant

    ECB Delivers Expected Cut; Next One In September (Most Likely)

    The ECB surprised no one today with its first rate cut after a five-meeting run of unchanged rates; the deposit facility rate will now sit at 3.75%, down from 4.00%.

    Although the ECB feels the time is right to cut and it acknowledges “progress over recent quarters”, the bank’s statement was taken somewhat hawkishly by markets given worries about wage growth and upward revision to inflation forecasts.

    We expect the ECB will have enough information by the September meeting to cut again by 25bps, but it will not know enough by July to cut then; we also continue to forecast a total of 100bps in cuts through 2024.

    Lagarde’s press conference saw some choppiness in markets, but she held her cards close to her chest. The market reaction was sharp on the statement, with a jump in yields on the ‘hawkish cut’ but range-bound throughout the presser.

    The market reaction was sharp on the statement, but range-bound throughout the presser aside from the short-lived chop on the dialing-back phase comments.

    At the conclusion of Lagarde’s presser (cutoff time for market levels here), German 2yr and 10yr yields are up about 3bps versus pre-decision (and a net ~5bps higher vs USTs after some ULC revisions). The EUR is fractionally higher against the USD in the high 1.08s and also barely firmer against the GBP. The market has taken out some in terms of expected cuts by year-end, roughly 4bps less to see a total of ~60bps (today’s 25bps inclusive). We think this undershoots what the ECB will deliver, at least 75bps in total.

    #74677

    Dow 38,886.17 78.84 0.20%
    S&P 500 5,352.96 -1.07 -0.02%
    Nasdaq 17,173.12 -14.78 -0.09%
    VIX 12.60 -0.03 -0.24%
    Gold 2,391.20 15.70 0.66%
    Oil 75.57 1.50 2.03%

    #74678

    Dow 38,798.99 -87.18 -0.22%
    S&P 500 5,346.99 -5.97 -0.11%
    Nasdaq 17,133.13 -39.99 -0.23%
    VIX 12.20 -0.38 -3.02%
    Gold 2,305.80 -85.10 -3.56%
    Oil 75.26 -0.29 -0.38

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 31 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.