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The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 7.7% with purchase applications declining 6.0% while refinancing applications fell 13.0%.
Total retail sales increased 3.0% month-over-month (consensus +1.7%) following an unrevised 1.1% decline in December. Excluding autos, retail sales jumped 2.3% (consensus +0.8%) following an upwardly revised 0.9% decline (from -1.1%) in December.
The key takeaway from the report is that consumers were spending freely on goods in January despite the ongoing inflation pressure; in fact, every single sales category showed a month-over-month increase, led by a 7.2% surge in sales at food services and drinking places.
US industrial production was unchanged in January (consensus 0.5%) from a revised 1.0% decline in December (-0.7%). Capacity utilization fell to 78.3% in January (consensus 79.1%) from a revised 78.4% in December (from 78.8%).
Dow 34,128.05 38.78 0.11%
S&P 500 4,147.61 11.48 0.28%
Nasdaq 12,070.59 110.45 0.92%
VIX 18.21 -0.70 -3.70%
Gold 1,847.60 -17.80 -0.95%
Oil 78.60 -0.46 -0.58%Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly higher note.
—Equity Markets—
Japan’s Nikkei: +0.7%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.8%
China’s Shanghai Composite: -1.0%
India’s Sensex: +0.1%
South Korea’s Kospi: +2.0%
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.8China will reportedly extend tariff waivers on some goods from the U.S. until mid-September.
Travel in China during the Spring Festival was reportedly up 50.5% yr/yr.
Australia’s unemployment rate jumped to its highest level since May in the January reading.
ANZ raised its forecast for the terminal RBA rate by 25 bps to 4.10%.
Bank Indonesia held its key rate at 5.75%
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas announced a 50 bps rate hike to 6.00%.China’s January House Prices -1.5% yr/yr (last -1.5%)
Japan’s December Core Machinery Orders 1.6% m/m (expected 3.0%; last -8.3%); -6.6% yr/yr (expected -6.0%; last -3.7%). January trade deficit JPY3.497 trln (expected deficit of JPY3.872 trln; last deficit of JPY1.452 trln). January Imports 17.8% yr/yr (expected 18.4%; last 20.7%) and Exports 3.5% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 11.5%)
Hong Kong’s January Unemployment Rate 3.4% (last 3.5%)
Australia’s January employment change -11,500 (expected 20,000; last -19,000) and full employment change -43,300 (last 14,400). January Unemployment Rate 3.7% (expected 3.5%; last 3.5%) and Participation Rate 66.5% (expected 66.6%; last 66.6%)
Major European indices trade mostly in the green.
STOXX Europe 600: UNCH
Germany’s DAX: -0.1%
U.K.’s FTSE 100: UNCH
France’s CAC 40: +0.7%
Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.5%
Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.2%Commerzbank reported profit growth in Q4 and announced plans for a dividend and buyback
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Airbus reported strong results for the year.The European Central Bank’s latest economic bulletin reiterated a plan to continue raising rates significantly at a steady pace while ECB President Lagarde repeated that high inflation is having a significant impact and must be brought back down to 2.0%.
ECB policymaker Panetta spoke in favor of smaller rate hikes.Italy’s December trade surplus EUR1.067 bln (expected surplus of EUR1.400 bln; last surplus of EUR1.423 bln)
Spain’s December trade deficit EUR4.51 bln (last deficit of EUR3.31 bln)Twilio (TWLO 75.61, +9.56, +14.5%): beats by $0.30, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; authorizes $1.0 bln repurchase program
Roku (ROKU 71.36, +7.87, +12.4%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Atlantic Equities
RingCentral (RNG 43.25, -5.16, -10.7%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI
Cisco (CSCO 50.05, +1.60, +3.3%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; raises FY23 guidance; raises dividend 3%
Boston Beer Co (SAM 345.00, -47.91, -12.2%): reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; expects FY23 depletions and shipments to fall 2-8% yr/yr
Zillow (ZG 48.57, +1.91, +4.1%): beats by $0.15, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line
Synopsys (SNPS 368.00, -11.48, -3.0%): beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
Shopify (SHOP 48.11, -5.28, -9.9%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; disappoints with revenue outlook
Crocs (CROX 135.11, +9.44, +7.5%): beats by $0.42, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS and revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-lineJanuary Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 0.7% month-over-month (consensus 0.4%) following an upwardly revised 0.2% decline (from -0.5%) in December.
Core-PPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.5% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.1%) in December.
On a year-over-year basis, PPI was up 6.0%, versus 6.2% in December, and core-PPI was up 5.4%, versus 5.8% in December.The key takeaway from the report for the market is that headline inflation was hotter than expected on a monthly basis. That will stoke worries about inflation pressures persisting at higher levels for longer than expected — and the Fed keeping rates higher for longer — even though there was improvement on a year-over-year basis.
The Philadelphia Fed Index for February dropped to -24.3 (consensus -8.0) from -8.9 in January, with the New Orders Index slipping to -13.6 from -10.9 and the Prices Paid Index increasing to 26.5 from 24.5.
The key takeaway from the report is that the overall number is the lowest since May 2020 and that firms generally expect prices to moderate in the next six months.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 11 decreased by 1,000 to 194,000 (consensus 203,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 4 increased by 16,000 to 1.696 million.
The key takeaway from the report is that the persistence of initial claims below 200,000 reflects a very tight labor market, and a reluctance on the part of most companies to cut their workforce, which will continue to drive worries at the Fed about tight labor market conditions feeding into sticker wage-based inflation pressures.
January housing starts declined 4.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.309 million (consensus 1.355 million) from a downwardly revised 1.371 million (from 1.382 million) in December.
Building permits increased 0.1% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.339 million (consensus 1.350 million) from an upwardly revised 1.337 million (from 1.330 million) in December.
The key takeaway from the report was the lack of growth in both single-family starts (-4.3%) and permits (-1.8%), which is a reflection of the adverse impact of rising interest rates and ongoing inflation pressures that are crimping builders’ willingness to build new homes and buyers’ willingness to purchase new homes due to affordability constraints.
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