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Awesome Superbowl! A bit behind this weekend with the events – however great weekly this week – have to say gets jam packed with more and more wisdom each week!
Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly lower note.
—Equity Markets—
Japan’s Nikkei: -0.9%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.1%
China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.7%
India’s Sensex: -0.4%
South Korea’s Kospi: -0.7%
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2%Kazuo Ueda, who is expected to receive the nomination to lead the Bank of Japan, said that current monetary policy stance is appropriate and that easy policy needs to continue.
India is reportedly looking to triple its defense-related exports over the next two years. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe will face parliamentary hearings on Wednesday and Friday.
Singapore’s Q4 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.8%); 2.1% yr/yr (expected 2.3%; last 4.0%)
Major European indices trade in the green.
—Equity Markets—
STOXX Europe 600: +0.6%
Germany’s DAX: +0.4%
U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.3%
France’s CAC 40: +0.8%
Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.6%
Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.6%The EU Commission’s winter forecast called for 0.9% growth in the eurozone while the outlook for 2024 remains unchanged at 1.5%. Inflation for 2023 is expected to decelerate to 5.6% and slow to 2.5% in 2024.
Bank of Italy Governor Visco said that additional rate hikes will be justified if there is a wage-price spiral, adding that he does not know where the terminal rate will be.
Moody’s affirmed Germany’s AAA rating with a Stable outlook.
Swiss January CPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -0.2%); 3.3% yr/yr (expected 2.9%; last 2.8%)
Earnings
Check Point Software (CHKP 133.00, +5.84, +4.6%): beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; announces $2.0 bln expansion of share repurchase program
TreeHouse Foods (THS 40.96, -7.37, -15.3%): misses by $0.01, misses on revs; guides FY23 revs below consensus
Fidelity Nat’l Info (FIS 70.00, -5.43, -7.2%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; confirms merchant business spin off
Monday.com (MNDY 145.50, +14.32, +10.9%): beats by $0.80, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY23 revs above consensus
Teradata (TDC 35.80, +1.53, +4.5%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
The stock market opened on an upbeat note, boosting by a strong showing from the mega cap stocks.
The S&P 500 briefly dipped below the 4,100 level, but buyers showed up quickly and the main indices have been trending higher in recent trading.
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is up 1.0% versus a 0.4% gain in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and a 0.6% gain in the S&P 500.
Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors trade up led by the information technology (+1.3%), real estate (+0.8%), and communication services (+0.6%) sectors. The energy sector (-1.0%), meanwhile, sits alone in negative territory as oil prices pullback ($79.51/bbl, $-0.21, -0.4%).
Market breadth reflects broad buying interest. Advancers lead decliners by a 8-to-3 margin at the NYSE and a 3-to-2 margin at the Nasdaq.
Energy complex futures are falling. WTI crude oil futures are dpwn 0.9% ot $79.00/bbl and natural gas futures are down 2.3% to $2.45/mmbtu.
SUPER BOWL was excellent … Congratulations to Chiefs & their MVP QB
Loved a lot of the music as well … including one of the best renditions outside of Whitney in #25 🙂The JPMorgan Trading Desk has put out it’s trading plan for tomorrow’s CPI Release for the $SPX $SPY
$ES_FAt JPMorgan, the trading team including Andrew Tyler saw an almost two-in-three chance for the CPI data to arrive within 20 basis points of the median estimate from economists.
After a surprise jump in Manheim’s used-vehicle price index, expectations for a hotter reading have grown. If inflation comes in above 6.5% — a scenario that Tyler’s team assigned a 5% probability, the S&P 500 would drop 2.5% to 3%. Should that occur, invest should look to sell expensive software stocks and cryptocurrencies while buying Treasuries and the dollar, the team suggested.
“This bearish outcome would align with the resurgent inflation hypothesis and could be driven by services where the consumer has shown a rebound in spending, evidenced by the latest Manheim print,” they wrote in a note Friday. “More troubling for bulls is that this scenario would occur before we have witnessed an inflationary impulse from China.”
“The recent backup in bond yields may be enough such that we do not see another rate hike priced in given that we would have the March print before the next Fed meeting,” Tyler and his team said.
Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note.
—Equity Markets—
Japan’s Nikkei: +0.6%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.2%
China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.3%
India’s Sensex: +1.0%
South Korea’s Kospi: +0.5%
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2%The Japanese government nominated Kazuo Ueda to lead the Bank of Japan, as expected, and there was growing speculation that Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe will be replaced.
Taiwan will reopen to visitors from Hong Kong and Macau next week.
Australian iron ore miners are expected to report sharply lower earnings on a yr/yr basis.
Japan’s Q4 GDP 0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.5%; last -0.3%); 0.6% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; last -1.0%). December Industrial Production 0.3% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.1%) and Capacity Utilization -1.1% m/m (last -1.4%)
India’s January WPI Inflation 4.73% yr/yr (expected 4.54%; last 4.95%)
Australia’s January NAB Business Survey 18 (last 13) and NAB Business Confidence 6 (expected 1; last -1). February Westpac Consumer Sentiment -6.9% (last 5.0%)
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