Traders Market Weekly: The Meaning of Market Volatility (or Lack of) Risk

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    NVIDIA (NVDA 276.75, +6.73, +2.5%): HSBC upgraded to Buy from Reduce


    Total housing starts might have declined 0.8% month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.420 million (consensus 1.407 million), but that was due to a decline in multi-unit starts. Single-unit starts were up 2.7% month-over-month to 861,000.

    Building permits, meanwhile, declined 8.8% month-over-month, driven by a 24.3% decline in permits for 5 units or more, whereas single-family permits increased 4.1% month-over-month to 818,000.

    The key takeaway from the report is the growth seen in single-family starts and single-family permits — a leading indicator — which is needed given the limited supply of existing homes for sale.


    Treasury yields moved higher after the data release.

    The 2-yr note yield, at 4.18% shortly before 8:30 a.m. ET, is up three basis points to 4.21%.
    The 10-yr note yield, at 3.57% before 8:30 a.m. ET, is up one basis point to 3.60%.


    The S&P 500 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 97 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 16 points and are trading slightly above fair value.


    Yields after Housing starts:

    2-yr: +2 bps to 4.20%
    3-yr: +2 bps to 3.93%
    5-yr: +1 bp to 3.70%
    10-yr: UNCH at 3.59%
    30-yr: UNCH at 3.81%


    Dow 33,976.63 -10.55 -0.03%
    S&P 500 4,154.87 3.55 0.09%
    Nasdaq 12,153.41 -4.31 -0.04%
    VIX 16.83 -0.12 -0.71%
    Gold 2,017.40 10.40 0.52%
    Oil 80.90 0.07 0.09%


    CDW (CDW) guides Q1 net sales below consensus due to more cautious buying; expects US IT market to decline at a high single-digit rate in 2023… CDW down 9.1%

    Fulton Fincl (FULT) misses by $0.09, misses on revs… FULT down 1.7%

    Interactive Brokers (IBKR) misses by $0.06, reports revs in-line… IBKR down 3.4%

    Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; worldwide da Vinci procedures grew by approximately 26%; increases FY23 procedure growth to +18-21% yr/yr from +12-16%… ISRG up 9.0%

    Marten Transport (MRTN) beats by $0.01, misses on revs… MRTN down 6.2%

    Netflix (NFLX) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus as co shifts timing for paid sharing broad launch from late Q1 to Q2… NFLX down 0.5%

    Omnicom (OMC) beats by $0.16, beats on revs… OMC up 1.4%

    Regions Fincl (RF) in annual shareholder meeting slides: liquidity position is stable; Q1 deposit flows largely in-line with expectations for balance normalization; March ending balances approximately flat with levels in early March… RF up 1.4%

    United Airlines (UAL) beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS target… UAL up 2.1%

    United Comm Banks (UCBI) misses by $0.11, misses on revs… UCBI down 5.1%

    Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) beats by $0.27, net interest income increased 35.7% yr/yr… WAL up 16.0%


    Fair Value for Wednesday, April 19:

    S&P 500: 4,180
    Nasdaq 100: 13,184
    DJIA: 34,121


    Fox Corporation (FOX) confirms that a settlement was reached in the Dominion Voting Systems lawsuit…

    FOX down 0.1%


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.2%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.4%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.7%
    India’s Sensex: -0.3%
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.2%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%


    The Bank of Japan is expected to hold off on changes to its yield curve control policy past next week’s meeting. The central bank is expected to issue a forecast calling for 2.0% inflation in FY25.

    Japan’s February Industrial Production 4.6% m/m (expected 4.5%; last -5.3%) and Capacity Utilization 3.9% m/m (expected 4.0%; last -5.5%). April Reuters Tankan Index -3 (expected -1; last -1)


    Australia’s March Leading Index 0.0% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.1%)


    Treasury Secretary Yellen is expected to comment on the relationship with China during a speech on Thursday.


    Major European indices trade near their flat lines.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%
    Germany’s DAX: -0.1%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.2%
    France’s CAC 40: UNCH
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.2%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.3%


    Expectations are solidifying for a 25-bps rate hike from the Bank of England on May 11.

    Ambulance workers in the U.K. are planning another strike for next month while rail workers in Germany will hold a nationwide strike on Friday.

    U.K.’s March CPI 0.8% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 1.1%); 10.1% yr/yr (expected 9.8%; last 10.4%).
    March Core CPI 0.9% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 1.2%); 6.2% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; last 6.2%).
    March Input PPI 0.2% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 0.0%)
    Output PPI 0.1% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.4%)

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