Traders Market Weekly: Central Banker Deluge

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 30 total)
  • Author
  • #30926

    December 10 – 16 2021 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… Banker M
    [See the full post at: Traders Market Weekly: Central Banker Deluge]

    • This topic was modified 1 year, 3 months ago by Nick.
    • This topic was modified 1 year, 3 months ago by CautiousInvestor.
    • This topic was modified 1 year, 3 months ago by TradersCom.
    • This topic was modified 1 year ago by TradersCom.

    Wake-Up Call Briefing

    Positive bias carries over in futures trade
    UK calls attention to rapid COVID spread and Omicron issues
    Market still confident in vaccine/booster regiment to help mitigate Omicron impact
    PFE buying ARNA for $6.7 bln or $100.00/share cash
    HOG to merge its LiveWire unit with IMPX in SPAC deal
    JPMorgan names AAPL and QCOM Top Picks for 2022
    Ratings actions for KO, PFE, MRK, PTLO, SAVE, PH, XM, SHOP, SG, and COUP
    Oil prices take a dip
    10-yr yield presses lower in curve-flattening trade


    Market Updates

    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: +12.0
    10 yr Note: 1.476%
    USD/JPY: 113.68 +0.30
    EUR/USD: 1.1268 -0.0049
    Europe: FTSE: 0.0% DAX: +0.9% CAC: +0.2%
    Asia: Hang Seng: -0.2% Shanghai: +0.4% Nikkei: +0.7%
    Gold (1786.20 +1.40) Silver (22.20 +0.01) Crude (71.78 +0.10)


    PRAYERS continue for those impacted by tornado outbreak
    song below is from Christian artist in our area with comforting lyrics
    one of greatest performances I ever heard as he came to our church a few years ago



    Dow 35,650.95 -320.04 -0.89%
    S&P 500 4,668.97 -43.05 -0.91%
    Nasdaq 15,413.28 -217.32 -1.39%
    GlobalDow 4,019.02 -31.69 -0.78%
    Gold 1,788.00 3.20 0.18%
    Oil 71.21 -0.46 -0.64%


    The S&P 500 is down 1.3%, as the market extends yesterday’s losses amid concerns surrounding inflation and growth. The Nasdaq Composite underperforms with a 2.0% decline, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%) and Russell 2000 (-0.8%) outperform on a relative basis with more modest losses.

    Inflation concerns have been fueled by a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index for November, which was up 0.8% month-over-month (consensus 0.5%) and up 9.6% year-over-year.

    The report has bolstered expectations for the Fed to taper faster than planned and potentially be more aggressive with rate hikes, which some fear could stymie growth when the global economy is still struggling to fend off the coronavirus. The FOMC will conclude its two-day policy meeting tomorrow.

    Presently, the mega-caps are leading the decline amid profit-taking interest, leaving the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK 252.00, -6.09, -2.4%) down 2.4%. For comparison, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP 157.35, -1.2, -0.8%) is down 0.8%.

    The S&P 500 information technology (-2.7%), consumer discretionary (-1.7%), and communication services (-1.1%) sectors, which contain the mega-caps, are among the weakest performers right now. The financials (+0.4%) and energy (+0.2%) sectors are the only sectors bucking the negative trend with modest gains.


    The S&P 500 continues to trade lower by 1.1%, extending its two-day decline to 2.0%. There is likely some hesitation in front of the FOMC policy statement tomorrow that’s contributing to the downside pressure.

    Interestingly, 2021 meme favorites AMC Entertainment (AMC 23.53, +0.29, +1.3%) and GameStop (GME 138.98, +2.10, +1.5%) have turned positive after being down 10.7% and 5.4%, respectively, after the open. There’s been no specific news to account for the turnaround.


    The major European indices closed lower note.

    Germany’s DAX lost 1.1%, UK’s FTSE lost 0.2%, and France’s CAC lost 0.7%. The Europe Stoxx 600 declined 0.7%.


    Pfizer (PFE) announced today that a Phase 2/3 study of its oral antiviral treatment candidate reduced the risk of hospitalization or death in high-risk adults by 89% when taken within three days of symptom onset.


    Something different with a little Tim Burton-esque video that is full of dark and funny moments


    Dow 35,544.77 -106.18 -0.30%
    S&P 500 4,634.13 -34.84 -0.75%
    Nasdaq 15,237.64 -175.64 -1.14%
    GlobalDow 4,012.03 -6.69 -0.17%
    Gold 1,771.40 -16.90 -0.95%
    Oil 70.46 -0.83


    One key thing to watch after the Fed meeting is how interest rate hike expectations change. At present Fed futures are pricing in 2 hikes next year.

    The Fed at today’s FOMC is expected to quicken the taper to $30B per month. With the current pace at $105B, that would get to no bond buying near March and pave the way for tightening(s) assuming all goes well (uncertain).

    The Fed will also adjust their dot plot which would likely show tightening twice in 2022 (up toward 0.75% for the Fed funds target) vs near unchanged in the September plot (projected 0.3% from 0.25% in September). The 2023 plot should likewise show a jump. In September it forecast a 1.0% rate. That should move toward 1.5% or so.



    As the #Russell Index sells off into oblivion …. Rusty asks are you entertained yet … Is there a low in sight

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 3 months ago by TradersCom.
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 30 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.