Traders Market Weekly: US Elections, Rates and Inflation

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 66 total)
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    China’s Foreign Ministry refuted yesterday’s reports about a Reopening Committee being formed. The Japanese government noted that JPY6.3 trln was spent on interventions in the currency market in October. A Chinese military vessel entered Japan’s territorial waters earlier today. Tensions are growing between North and South Korea after DPRK fired at least ten missiles. South Korea’s CPI increased at its fastest yr/yr pace since December 2008 in the October reading.
    South Korea’s October CPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.3%); 5.7% yr/yr (expected 5.6%; last 5.6%)
    Australia’s October AIG Manufacturing Index 49.6 (last 50.2). September Home Loans -9.3% m/m (last -2.7%). September Building Approvals -5.8% m/m (expected -7.0%; last 23.1%) and September Private House Approvals -7.8% m/m (last 4.8%)
    New Zealand’s Q3 Employment Change 1.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.5%; last 0.0%). Q3 Unemployment Rate 3.3% (expected 3.2%; last 3.3%) and Participation Rate 71.7% (expected 71.0%; last 70.9%). Q3 Labor Cost Index 1.1% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 1.3%); 3.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.4%)


    Major European indices trade in mixed fashion after October Manufacturing PMI readings from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain fell deeper into contractionary territory.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%
    Germany’s DAX: -0.1%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.2%
    France’s CAC 40: -0.4%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.2%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.2%


    Russia will reportedly resume its participation in the Black Sea grain deal.
    European Central Bank policymaker Nagel said that the ECB has a long way to go on rate hikes and that the central bank should begin reducing its bond portfolio at the start of 2023.
    Shipping giant Maersk beat Q3 expectations but warned that demand for containers is falling.
    Eurozone’s October Manufacturing PMI 46.4 (expected 46.6; last 48.4)
    Germany’s October Manufacturing PMI 45.1 (expected 45.7; last 47.8). October Unemployment Change 8,000 (expected 15,000; last 13,000) and October Unemployment Rate 5.5%, as expected (last 5.5%). September trade surplus EUR3.7 bln (expected surplus of EUR700 mln; last surplus of EUR1.2 bln). September Imports -2.3% m/m (expected -0.4%; last 4.9%) and Exports -0.5% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 2.9%)
    France’s October Manufacturing PMI 47.2 (expected 47.4; last 47.7). September budget deficit EUR146.60 bln (last deficit of EUR149.90 bln)
    Italy’s October Manufacturing PMI 46.5 (expected 46.9; last 48.3)
    Spain’s October Manufacturing PMI 44.7 (expected 47.5; last 49.0)


    Paramount Global (PARA 17.16, -2.01, -10.5%) and Estee Lauder (EL 190.00, -16.76, -8.1%) are making big downside moves this morning after reporting quarterly results.

    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 62.86, +3.20, +5.4%) is moving higher this morning after its earnings report.


    Energy complex futures are mixed ahead of the open. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.1% to $88.16/bbl while natural gas futures are up 6.0% to $6.46/mmbtu.


    Dow -132.56 at 32522.67, Nasdaq -74.85 at 10755.85, S&P -23.69 at 3832.48
    The major averages inched somewhat lower in the last half hour.

    All 11 S&P 500 sectors trade in negative territory with real estate (-1.5%) showing the steepest loss.

    Meanwhile, health care (-0.2%) has the slimmest loss, which is limited by earnings-driven gains in components Charles River (CRL 224.00, +16.71, +8.1%), CVS Corp. (CVS 98.62, +4.00, +4.2%), and Humana (HUM 561.42, +6.93, +1.3%).


    FEDWATCH is ON … and that even has potential of being a true “OCTOBER” surprise — if 50 BPS rather than 75 BPS were done to “pause” at least 1 meeting. However, this is not likely as it’s more of a political move.

    Rather than helping inflation — it actually hurts poor & those in credit card debt who are already pinching pennies. And politics aside, I do hope for better times ahead in nation … as COVID is getting under control & we could get a balanced budget — that’s the answer. Hope new crop of politicians on BOTH SIDES of aisle help improve things for our great nation down the road 🙂

    If anyone needs a “write in” candidate, you can vote for “Bambi” or “CautiousInvestor” – lol 😉 🙂


    Waiting game ahead of FOMC decision at 2:00 p.m. ET and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET

    Mixed reaction to slew of earnings news since yesterday’s close

    ADP Employment Change for October showing the labor market remains strong, creating some concerns that the Fed might not soften its rate hike approach following the November meeting

    Dow 32600.60 -54.63 (-0.17%)
    Nasdaq 10726.18 -104.52 (-0.97%)
    SP 500 3836.93 -19.24 (-0.50%)
    10-yr Note 0/32 4.05
    NYSE Adv 955 Dec 2023 Vol 295 mln
    Nasdaq Adv 1434 Dec 2866 Vol 2.2 bln


    Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors trade in negative territory. Utilities (+0.5%) is alone in the green while consumer discretionary (-1.5%) is buried in last place, hampered by’s (AMZN 94.33, -2.47, -2.6%) and Tesla’s (TSLA 222.21, -5.61, -2.5%) underperformance.


    Weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index fell 0.5% after 1.7% increase last week
    The ADP Employment Change totaled 239,000 in October (consensus 198,000) following a revised total of 192,000 in September (from 208,000)
    Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 3.12 million barrels following last week’s draw of 2.59 million barrels


    Even with expected 75 BPS hike – FED may lessen these down road
    with over 10 million unfilled JOBS – employment is too hot for FED to let off gas

    And 1 of my FAV 1-hit wonders — as RATES are going SKY-HIGH until inflation is cured 😉 🙂


    PPPPPLLLLUUUNNNGGGGEEEEEEE – DOW went from 300 up to 300 down
    After media finally read FOMC announcement — it was more HAWKISH than predicted
    as Cramer might say — SELL, SELL, SELL … batton down the hatches
    as this may move us back to more BEARISH territory (albeit NOV8 results not-withstanding)


    Dow 32,147.76 -505.44 -1.55%
    S&P 500 3,759.69 -96.41 -2.50%
    Nasdaq 10,524.80 -366.05 -3.36%
    VIX 25.86 0.05 0.19%
    Gold 1,638.20 -11.50 -0.70%
    Oil 89.26 0.89 1.01%


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a lower note while Japan’s Nikkei was closed for Culture Day.

    Japan’s Nikkei: CLOSED,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -3.1%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.2%,
    India’s Sensex: -0.1%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: -0.3%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -1.8%.


    China’s October Caixin Services PMI 48.4 (expected 49.2; last 49.3)
    Hong Kong’s October Manufacturing PMI 49.3 (last 48.0)
    Australia’s October Services PMI 49.3 (last 50.6). September trade surplus AUD12.444 bln (expected surplus of AUD8.850 bln; last surplus of AUD8.664 bln). September Imports 0.4% m/m (last 4.1%) and Exports 7.0% m/m (last 2.7%).
    India’s October Nikkei Services PMI 55.1 (expected 54.6; last 54.3)
    Nikkei reported that Japan’s Business Federation will urge its members to raise compensation in the spring to offset higher prices.
    China’s Caixin Services PMI remained in contraction for the second consecutive month in the October reading.
    North Korea fired more missiles in Japan’s direction.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 66 total)
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