Traders Market Weekly: Hello 2024, Unexpected Opportunity on The Menu

Viewing 15 posts - 76 through 90 (of 94 total)
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    December Services PMI 59.0 (expected 56.5; last 56.9)


    November Retail Sales 0.5% m/m (last -0.9%); 2.5% yr/yr (last -0.1%)


    South Korea
    ordered the evacuation of two islands after North Korea fired hundreds of artillery shells in the area.


    Passenger vehicle sales in China were up 9.0% yr/yr in December.


    Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to the week.
    STOXX Europe 600: -1.0% (-1.3% week-to-date),
    Germany’s DAX: -0.8% (-1.6% week-to-date),
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.9% (-1.0% week-to-date),
    France’s CAC 40: -1.1% (-2.4% week-to-date),
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.6% (-0.4% week-to-date),
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -1.0% (-0.2% week-to-date).


    December CPI 0.2% m/m (last -0.6%); 2.9% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.4%).
    December Core CPI 0.4% m/m (last -0.6%); 3.4% yr/yr (expected 3.5%; last 3.6%).
    November PPI -0.3% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.3%); -8.8% yr/yr (expected -8.7%; last -9.4%)

    November Retail Sales -2.5% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 1.1%); -2.4% yr/yr (expected -0.5%; last -0.1%)

    December Halifax House Price Index 1.1% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr (last -0.8%)

    December CPI 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.5%); 0.6% yr/yr (expected 0.7%; last 0.7%)

    December Business Confidence -6.8 (last -9.4)


    Agilon Health (AGL 9.17, -2.91, -24.1%): lowers FY23 revs guidance; sees FY24 revs above forecast; announces Tim Bensley to retire as CFO


    Lockheed Martin (LMT 459.23, +1.36, +0.3%): awarded $1.15 bln U.S. Navy contract modification


    Constellation Brands (STZ 239.25, -3.08, -1.3%): beats by $0.18, misses on revs; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance


    Medical Properties Trust (MPW 3.92, -1.08, -21.6%): Provides Update on Steward Health Care; plans to accelerate its efforts to recover uncollected rents and outstanding loan obligations from Steward and related processes designed to significantly reduce its exposure to Steward


    llumina (ILMN 130.99, -0.44, -0.3%): announced that Susan Tousi, Chief Commercial Officer, will be leaving the Company effective as of January 5, 2024, and that Bas Verhoef, Head of Region – Europe, will serve as Interim Chief Commercial Officer


    Nonfarm payrolls increased by a larger-than-expected 216,000 in December; however, downward revisions for October and November led to 71,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.

    Nonfarm payrolls increased by 216,000 in December (consensus 162,000) following a revised increase of 173,000 in November (from 199,000). Nonfarm private payrolls increased by 164,000 in December (consensus 132,000) following a revised increase of 136,000 in November (from 150,000).

    Still, the unemployment rate held steady in December at a remarkably low 3.7% and average hourly earnings growth ticked up to 4.1% year-over-year from 4.0% in November.

    Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% in December (consensus 0.3%) following a 0.4% increase in November. The average workweek declined slightly to 34.3 hours in December (consensus 34.4) from 34.4 in November.

    The key takeaway from the report is that it wasn’t weak, so the market is going to have grapple with the notion that the Fed may not cut rates as many times in 2024 as the market had come to expect at the end of 2023.

    The 10-yr note yield, at 4.04% before the data, jumped to 4.09% in response, but pulled back to 4.05%.
    The 2-yr note yield, at 4.40% right before 8:30 ET, jumped to 4.48% in response, but sits at 4.44% now.

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by Truman.

    The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 50.6% (consensus 52.5%) from 52.7% in November. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the December reading connotes services sector activity expanded at a slower pace versus November. December marked the twelfth consecutive month of growth for the services sector.

    The key takeaway from the report is that the largest sector of the U.S. economy saw a slowdown in activity in December to a level that was just above contraction — a directional move that should at least keep the Fed from raising rates again if it doesn’t elect to cut rates as soon as the market expects.

    Treasury yields turned lower in response, which has provided a boost to the equity market.

    The 10-yr note yield is down two basis points from yesterday at 3.97% after hitting 4.09% immediately following the jobs report. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.36%.


    Factory orders increased 2.6% month-over-month in November (consensus 1.3%) after declining an upwardly revised 3.4% (from -3.6%) in October. Excluding transportation, factory orders increased just 0.1% after declining 1.3% in October. Shipments of manufactured goods were up 0.5% on the heels of a 1.3% decline in October.

    The key takeaway from the report is that factory order strength was muted in November excluding transportation.


    Morning Markets:

    Dow 37537.68 +97.34 (0.26%)
    Nasdaq 14605.26 +94.96 (0.65%)
    SP 500 4718.28 +29.60 (0.63%)
    10-yr Note +2/32 3.976
    NYSE Adv 2024 Dec 602 Vol 137 mln
    Nasdaq Adv 2222 Dec 1705 Vol 1.5 bln

    Industry Watch
    Strong: Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Information Technology, Energy
    Weak: Real Estate, Health Care, Consumer Staples

    Moving the Market
    — Digesting the Employment Situation Report for December
    — Treasury yields declining from overnight highs in response to this morning’s data
    — Bouncing after losses this week

    The S&P 500 is up 0.5% and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) is up 0.6%.

    All 11 S&P 500 sectors trade up with gains ranging from 0.1% to 1.0%.

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