Traders Market Weekly: War, Rates and Bankers Deliver Chaos

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 71 total)
  • Author
  • #66399

    Major European indices are trading with a decidedly positive disposition, taking their cue it seems from the U.S. market, which traded higher on Monday despite the uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Hamas War.

    Thus far, there has been no indication of a broadening out of that two-party war, so today’s rally effort is a bit of a relief trade that worst-case scenarios have not unfolded. That view has tempered the move in oil and natural gas prices, which is a plus for Europe.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: +1.4%
    Germany’s DAX: +1.5%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +1.6%
    France’s CAC 40: +1.5%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.8%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +1.7%


    Bank of England member Mann in a speech to the NABE maintained a tough line about the need to be more aggressive with monetary policy to prevent a drift in inflation expectations and inflation staying above target.


    Italy’s August Industrial Production +0.2% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.9%) and -4.2% yr/yr (expected -5.0%; last -2.3%)


    The S&P 500 futures are flat and are trading in line with fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 2 point and are trading roughly in line with fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

    The stock market is poised for a higher open following yesterday’s afternoon rally. A drop in market rates has contributed to the positive bias despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty around the situation in Israel and Gaza.

    The 2-yr note yield is down six basis points to 5.00% and the 10-yr note yield is down eight basis points to 4.70%.

    WTI crude oil futures are down 0.6% to $85.95/bbl after climbing 4.0% yesterday.


    PepsiCo (PEP 162.68, +1.32, +0.8%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS above consensusnce


    IMF lowered its 2024 global growth outlook to 2.9% from 3.0%.


    PG&E (PCG 12.42, -0.16, -1.0%) will pay $45 mln penalty for California wildfire, according to Bloomberg

    General Motors (GM 31.08, +0.09, +0.3%): Unifor members begin strike at GM


    Rivian (RIVN 19.38, +0.60, +3.2%): upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

    Electronic Arts (EA 126.81, +2.22, +1.8%): upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities


    Honeywell (HON 188.81, +2.29, +1.2%): realigns portfolio; sees Q3 revs in-line with expectations; EPS within or above prior guidance


    US September NFIB #smallbusiness optimism index 90.8 v 91.3 prior

    – 21 months in a row come in below the 49-year average of 98.
    – 23% of business owners continue to report inflation remains their single biggest problem in operating their business via @NFIB


    Wholesale inventories declined 0.1% in August ( consensus -0.1%) following a prior revised decline of 0.3% (from 0.2%) in July.


    Market opens to gains amid falling rates and oil

    The stock market opened to gains, which has the S&P 500 back above 4,300.

    The drop in Treasury yields and oil has been supportive of the broader market. The 2-yr note yield is down eight basis points to 4.98% and the 10-yr note yield is down nine basis points to 4.69%.

    WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% to $85.66/bbl.

    The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) is up 0.7%.

    Most of the S&P 500 sectors trade up led by materials (+1.3%) while the energy sector (-0.1%) brings up the rear.


    Dow 33,739.30 134.65 0.40%
    S&P 500 4,358.25 22.59 0.52%
    Nasdaq 13,562.84 78.60 0.58%
    VIX 16.93 -0.77 -4.35%
    Gold 1,873.70 9.40 0.50%
    Oil 85.80 -0.58 -0.67%


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a good showing,

    Registering gains on all fronts in the wake of another day of positive-minded trading in the U.S that was helped by lower bond yields and what remained a two-party war between Israel and Hamas.

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.6%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +1.3%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.1%,
    India’s Sensex: +0.6%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: +2.0%,
    Australia’s All Ordinaries: +0.7%.


    Other support factors for Asian markets included better-than-expected operating results from South Korean memory chip maker Samsung and reports that China is considering new stimulus measures.

    Japan’s October Reuters Tankan Index 4.0 (last 4.0); Machine Tool Orders -11.2% yr/yr (last -17.5%)
    South Korea’s August Current Account $4.81 bln (last $3.74 bln)

    Kyodo reported that the Bank of Japan is thinking about raising its FY23 core CPI forecast to 3.0% from 2.5%.

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 71 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.