Traders Market Weekly: Eyes on Powell and Adani Risks

Viewing 14 posts - 76 through 89 (of 89 total)
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    Equity futures extended their gains recently.

    The S&P 500 futures are up 40 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 253 points and are trading 2.0% above fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 39 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.


    Initial claims is an encouraging signal for the labor market, which, in light of Fed Chair Powell’s comments yesterday, is not the scare factor for the market that it has been in the past.

    On the contrary, the default view for the market now is to perceive it as good portent for a soft landing.


    Dow 34,053.94 -39.02 -0.11%
    S&P 500 4,179.76 60.55 1.47%
    Nasdaq 12,200.82 384.50 3.25%
    VIX 18.63 0.76 4.25%
    Gold 1,926.60 -16.20 -0.83%
    Oil 75.79 -0.62 -0.81%

    Helmholtz Watson

    Huge beat in US jobs that may have some seasonality issues, but it is impressive with gains and revisions well above expectations.

    From the BLS:

    Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Employment also increased in government, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike.

    The average gain in 2022 was 401K


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.4% (+0.5% for the week)
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.4% (-4.5% for the week)
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.7% (UNCH for the week)
    India’s Sensex: +1.5% (+2.6% for the week)
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.5% (-0.2% for the week)
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.6% (+0.8% for the week)


    Press reports from last evening indicate that a Chinese spy balloon has been spotted above Montana.
    Hong Kong’s daily entry quota and pre-arrival coronavirus testing will be scrapped, and group tours will resume on Monday. Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki said that the decision on the next Bank of Japan governor has not been made yet. South Korea’s Finance Minister Choo said that chip exports are expected to recover in the second half of the year.
    China’s January Caixin Services PMI 52.9 (expected 51.6; last 48.0)
    Japan’s January Services PMI 52.3 (expected 52.4; last 51.1)
    Hong Kong’s January Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (last 49.6). December Retail Sales 1.1% yr/yr (last -4.2%)
    India’s January Nikkei Services PMI 57.2 (expected 58.1; last 58.5)
    Australia’s January Services PMI 48.6 (expected 48.3; last 47.3). December Home Loans -5.7% m/m (expected -2.8%; last -3.0%) and Invest Housing Finance -4.4% m/m (last -3.6%)
    Singapore’s December Retail Sales 1.3% m/m (last -3.6%); 7.4% yr/yr (last 6.5%)


    Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to a solid week.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.3% (+0.6% week-to-date)
    Germany’s DAX: -0.9% (+1.5% week-to-date)
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.4% (+1.1% week-to-date)
    France’s CAC 40: -0.4% (+0.6% week-to-date)
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.3% (+1.2% week-to-date)
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.4% (+1.1% week-to-date)


    Major European Services PMI readings from Germany and Italy returned into expansionary territory while reading from France and the U.K. remained below 50.0. Producer prices in the eurozone increased unexpectedly in December, but the yr/yr rate still decreased to 24.6% from 27.0% in November. Bank of England Governor Bailey said that it is too soon to say if yesterday’s rate hike was the last. Several European Central Bank policymakers spoke about the high likelihood of another 50-bps rate hike at the March meeting.
    Eurozone’s December PPI 1.1% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -1.0%); 24.6% yr/yr (expected 22.5%; last 27.0%). January Services PMI 50.8 (expected 50.7; last 49.8)
    Germany’s January Services PMI 50.7 (expected 50.4; last 49.2)
    U.K.’s January Services PMI 48.7 (expected 48.0; last 49.9)
    France’s December Industrial Production 1.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 2.0%). January Services PMI 49.4 (expected 49.2; last 49.5)
    Italy’s January Services PMI 51.2 (expected 51.0; last 49.9)
    Spain’s January Services PMI 52.7 (expected 52.5; last 51.6)
    : beats by $0.32, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS and revenue guidance


    Apple (AAPL 148.89, -1.93, -1.3%): misses by $0.07, misses on revs as iPhones, Macs, wearables all miss expectations; expects Q2 yr/yr revenue performance to be similar to Q1
    Amazon (AMZN 108.38, -4.53, -4.0%): reports Q4 results, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line; expects organizations’ optimization efforts to continue acting as a headwind to AWS growth over the next couple of quarters
    Alphabet (GOOG 104.64, -4.16, -3.8%): misses by $0.14, reports revs in-line; google advertising revenue down 3.6%, cloud revenue up 32.7%; announces segment reporting changes; Company to meaningfully slow pace of hiring, but will still invest in priority areas such as AI
    Nordstrom (JWN 26.65, +5.51, +26.1%): Activist investor Ryan Cohen said to be taking sizable stake in Nordstrom (JWN), according to WSJ
    Qualcomm (QCOM 132.44, -3.41, -2.5%): beats by $0.02, misses on revs; guides Q2 EPS midpoint below consensus, revs midpoint below consensus
    Starbucks (SBUX 106.94, -2.21, -2.0%): misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line; Q1 global comps +5%; Q1 US comps +10%; co will guide on conference call at 17:00 ET
    Ford Motor (F 13.38, -0.94, -6.6%): misses by $0.11, beats on revs, misses FY22 adjusted EBIT outlook; expects FY23 adjusted EBIT of $9-11 bln, mild recession in U.S. and moderate recession in Europe; downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank
    Atlassian (TEAM 164.59, -17.82, -9.9%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs above consensus
    Gilead Sciences (GILD 85.00, +3.61, +4.4%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line; increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.75/share from $0.73/share
    Cognizant Tech (CTSH 68.75, -1.91, -2.7%): downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird (BILL 100.30, -28.61, -22.2%): beats by $0.28, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
    Clorox (CLX 145.99, +4.99, +3.5%): beats by $0.32, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS and revenue guidance


    The January Employment Situation Report showed much stronger than expected payroll growth, as well as upward revisions in November and December that were a combined 71,000 higher than previously reported. This report also included benchmark revisions to establishment survey data for March 2022, which resulted in the total nonfarm employment level for March 2022 being revised upward by 568,000 (or 506,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis).

    Beyond the payroll growth in January, which was widespread and included a gain of 128,000 for leisure and hospitality, a 105,000 increase in private education and health services, and a 25,900 increase in temporary jobs, the unemployment rate of 3.4% was the lowest since 1969. In turn, the average workweek jumped to 34.7 hours from 34.4 hours, which was a boon for aggregate wage growth.

    Average hourly earnings were up 4.4% year-over-year versus 4.8% in December.

    The key takeaway from the report is that it has the market questioning its own conviction about the prospect of the Fed cutting rates before the end of the year, as it is thought the remarkable strength of the report could have the Fed questioning its own conviction about pausing rates soon.

    Treasury yields took a sharp turn higher following the release of the jobs report. The 2-yr note yield, at 4.10% shortly before the jobs report, sits at 4.24% now. The 10-yr note yield, at 3.39% shortly before the release, sits at 3.50% now.


    The S&P 500 futures are down 53 points and are trading 1.3% below fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 262 points and are trading 2.1% below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 225 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value.


    Ohhhh the humanity – the Chinese “weather” balloon may be heading to North Carolina or even SW VA


    Dow 33,926.01 -127.93 -0.38%
    S&P 500 4,136.48 -43.28 -1.04%
    Nasdaq 12,006.95 -193.86 -1.59%
    VIX 18.33 -0.40 -2.14%
    Gold 1,879.20 -51.60 -2.67%
    Oil 73.26 -2.62 -3.45%


    February 5- 10 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The Week T
    [See the full post at: Traders Market Weekly: Eyes on Powell and Adani Risks]

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