Traders Market Weekly: Eyes on Powell and Adani Risks

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 89 total)
  • Author
  • #52501

    Looking ahead to Tuesday,
    8:30 a.m. ET: January Chicago PMI ( consensus 45.4; prior 44.9), Q4 Employment Cost Index ( consensus 1.1%; prior 1.2%)
    9:00 a.m. ET: November FHFA Housing Price Index (prior 0.0%), November S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index ( consensus 6.8%; prior 8.6%)
    10:00 a.m. ET: December Consumer Confidence ( consensus 108.1; prior 108.3)


    High interest rates to hold back gold’s rally: Reuters poll

    Analysts and traders have significantly raised their predictions for gold prices but expect high interest rates to keep a lid on rallies, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

    The poll of 38 analysts and traders returned median forecasts for gold to average $1,825 an ounce in the first quarter of this year, $1,840 in the second, $1,852.50 in the full year and $1,890 in 2024.

    Three months ago, a Reuters poll predicted prices would average $1,712.50 in 2023. In 2022, gold averaged $1,801.93.


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly lower note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.4%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.0%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.4%
    India’s Sensex: +0.1%
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.0%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2%


    China’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI readings returned into expansionary territory for the first time since September. Australia’s retail sales contracted for the first time in 12 months in the December reading.
    The Biden administration is reportedly taking steps toward fully blocking Huawei from buying components from suppliers in the U.S.
    China’s January Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expected 49.8; last 47.0) and Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.4 (expected 52.0; last 41.6). December Industrial Profit -4.0% YTD (last -3.6%)
    Japan’s December Industrial Production -0.1% m/m (expected -1.2%; last 0.2%), December Retail Sales 3.8% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.5%). December jobs/applications ratio 1.35 (expected 1.36; last 1.35) and December Unemployment Rate 2.5%, as expected (last 2.5%). December Construction Orders 8.5% yr/yr (last -9.7%) and Housing Starts -1.7% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last -1.4%). January Household Confidence 31.0 (expected 30.5; last 30.3)
    South Korea’s December Industrial Production -2.9% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.6%); -7.3% yr/yr (expected -5.1%; last -3.7%). December Retail Sales 1.4% m/m (last -1.7%)
    Australia’s December Retail Sales -3.9% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 1.4%) and December Private Sector Credit 0.3% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.5%)
    Singapore’s Q4 Unemployment Rate 2.0% (last 2.0%)


    Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note while Italy’s MIB (+0.2%) outperforms, holding a slight gain.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.5%
    Germany’s DAX: -0.2%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.5%
    France’s CAC 40: -0.1%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.8%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.2%


    Eurozone’s GDP expanded slightly in Q4, according to the flash reading.
    Mortgage approvals in the U.K. were at their lowest level since mid-2020 in the December reading.
    UBS beat profit expectations for Q4 but said that its outlook is uncertain.
    French Finance Minister Le Maire said that the French economy is solid, and that growth is expected in 2023.
    Eurozone’s flash Q4 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected -0.1%; last 0.3%); 1.9% yr/yr (expected 2.2%; last 2.3%)
    Germany’s January unemployment change -15,000 (expected 5,000; last -13,000) and January Unemployment Rate 5.5%, as expected (last 5.5%). December Retail Sales -5.3% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 1.9%); -6.4% yr/yr (expected -1.8%; last -5.9%). December Import Price Index -1.6% m/m (expected -2.6%; last -4.5%); 12.6% yr/yr (expected 12.0%; last 14.5%)
    U.K.’s December Mortgage Lending GBP3.24 bln (expected GBP4.00 bln; last GBP4.26 bln) and December Mortgage Approvals 35,610 (expected 45,000; last 46,190) o France’s flash Q4 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last 0.1%); 0.5% yr/yr (last 1.0%). January CPI 0.4% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.1%); 6.0% yr/yr (expected 6.1%; last 5.9%). December PPI 1.4% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 1.2%) and December Consumer Spending -1.3% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.6%)
    Italy’s Q4 GDP -0.1% qtr/qtr (expected -0.2%; last 0.5%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 1.6%; last 2.6%). December Unemployment Rate 7.8%, as expected (last 7.8%)
    Spain’s November Current Account surplus EUR5.64 bln (last surplus of EUR2.70 bln)
    Swiss December Retail Sales -2.8% yr/yr (expected -0.7%; last -1.4%)


    General Motors (GM 37.88, +1.59, +4.4%): beats by $0.44, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus
    Pfizer (PFE 42.25, -1.30, -3.0%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
    Caterpillar (CAT 254.05, -7.45, -2.9%): misses by $0.17, beats on revs
    McDonald’s (MCD 265.48, -5.41, -2.0%): beats by $0.13, beats on revs; US comps +10.3%
    Exxon Mobil (XOM 112.40, -1.16, -1.0%): beats by $0.12, beats on revs
    UPS (UPS 180.89, +3.92, +2.2%): beats by $0.03, misses on revs; guides FY23 revs below consensus
    Whirlpool (WHR 157.00, +3.46, +2.3%): beats by $0.60, reports revs in-line; guides midpoint FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus


    The S&P 500 futures are down 4 points and are trading slightly below fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 38 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 49 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

    Treasury yields are moving lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.24% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.52%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 102.44.

    Energy complex futures continue to lose ground. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.0% to $77.16/bbl and natural gas futures are down 1.7% to $2.63/mmbtu.


    Dow 34,086.04 368.95 1.09%
    S&P 500 4,076.60 58.83 1.46%
    Nasdaq 11,584.55 190.74 1.67%
    VIX 19.39 -0.55 -2.76%
    Gold 1,944.10 4.90 0.25%
    Oil 79.10 1.20 1.54%


    The main parent holding company I work for is doing well in recent months
    PREM is the Warren Buffett of CANADA 🙂


    The main parent holding company I work for is doing well in recent months
    PREM is the Warren Buffett of CANADA 🙂

    Nice CI 🙂


    Fair Value for Wednesday, February 1st:

    S&P 500: 4,090
    Nasdaq 100: 12,151
    DJIA: 34,143


    Advanced Micro (AMD) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line… AMD up 1.8%
    Electronic Arts (EA) beats by $0.23, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; stopping development on Apex Mobile Legends and Battlefield Mobile… EA down 10.2%
    Juniper Networks (JNPR) reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs in-line… JNPR down 3.0%
    Match Group (MTCH) misses by $0.33, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs in-line… MTCH down 7.8%
    Mercury (MRCY) misses by $0.06, misses on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS midpoint above consensus, revs in-line; initiates review of strategic alternatives; announces that Michael Ruppert, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer, will step down from the Company, effective February 17, 2023, to accept an opportunity at a private company… MRCY up 6.0%
    Mondelez Int’l (MDLZ) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; to sell developed markets gum business in the U.S., Canada and Europe to Perfetti Van Melle… MDLZ up 1.6%
    O-I Glass (OI) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus… OI up 8.9%
    Snap (SNAP) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; internal forecast for Q1 revenue below consensus; not providing Q1 EBTIDA guidance… SNAP down 14.4%
    Stryker (SYK) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus… SYK up 4.0%
    Super Micro Computer (SMCI) beats by $0.23, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs below consensus; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance, revs guidance… SMCI down 4.9%
    Western Digital (WDC) misses by $0.29, beats on revs; guides MarQ EPS below consensus, revs below consensus… WDC down 5.0%


    IMF says global economy to slow further amid signs of resilience and china re-opening
    President Biden announces funding for major transportation projects funded by bipartisan infrastructure law
    President Biden will end COVID-19 public health emergency on May 11
    South Korea aiming to ease restrictions early on travelers from China, according to Reuters
    CMS issues final rule to protect medicare, strengthen medicare advantage, and hold insurers accountable
    New Jersey concealed carry restrictions blocked by federal court, according to Bloomberg


    US solar energy contracts increased by over 33%, according to Reuters
    Nevada Gaming Board reports December gaming win +14.3% yr/yr to $1.314 bln; +25.1% yr/yr to $814.2 mln on the Las Vegas Strip
    Demand for cardboard boxes drops to lowest level since 2008, according to Business Insider

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 89 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.