Traders Market Weekly: Eyes on Powell and Adani Risks

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    Another big week – does the rally keep going or does Mr. Powell say nope….


    Monday – January 30

    Notable companies due to report include Whirlpool (WHR) and NXP Semi (NXPI).

    All day – It is the first trading date following the FDA action date for Pfizer (PFE) and Myovant Sciences’ (MYOV) drug treatment myfembree for pain associated with endometriosis.

    2:30 p.m. Matinas BioPharma (MTNB) will hold a corporate update call.


    Tuesday – January 31

    Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include Exxon Mobil (XOM), General Motors (GM), UPS (UPS), Pfizer (PFE), Caterpillar (CAT), McDonald’s (MCD), Amgen (AMGN), AMD (AMD), Electronic Arts (EA), and UBS (UBS). Options trading implies a double-digit swing up or down when Snap (SNAP) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) report.

    M&A watch – The walk deadlines hit for the acquisition of F-star Therapeutics (FSTX) by invoX Pharma (OTCPK:SBHMY) and for the proposed merger between Rogers Communications (RCI) and Shaw Communications (SJR).

    All day – Sports betting will officially be legal in Massachusetts. Wynn Resorts’ (WYNN) Encore Boston Harbor, MGM Resorts’ (MGM) MGM Springfield, and Penn Entertainment’s (PENN) Plainridge Park all landed the Category 1 sportsbook licenses that will allow legal in-person sports betting.

    All day – Shareholders with Lionheart III Corp (LION) will vote on taking sustainable supply chain player Security Matters public in a SPAC deal.


    Wednesday – February 1

    Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include Amerisourcebergen (ABC), Altria (MO), MetLife (MET), and Meta Platforms (META). Options trading implies a double-digit swing when Peloton Interactive (PTON) report.

    Chinese electric vehicle makers Nio (NIO), Li Auto (LI), and XPeng (XPEV) will post their monthly deliveries reports. The Macau gross gaming revenue report for January will be closely watched with a few days of the Chinese New Year included and the first full month of relaxed COVID restrictions. Also watch for discount broker DART reports and the FBI background check update on firearms.

    All day – Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) will hold its Unpacked product event. The company is expected to announce the S23 series of phones at its first in-person event in three years.

    All day – OPEC oil ministers will meet online to review levels of output. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of OPEC+ is expected to endorse the current oil output policy of the group.

    All day – Shareholders with AMCI Acquisition Corp. II (AMCI) will vote on the SPAC deal to take carbon capture and transformation company LanzaTech public.
    All day – The FDA action date arrives for GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) on daprodustat for the treatment of chronic kidney disease.
    All day – Coherent Corp. (COHR) will hold a webcast of an analyst briefing focused on the company’s prospects in the display manufacturing and life sciences markets.

    2:00 p.m. The FOMC will issue its statement following the two-day meeting of the central bank.
    2:30 p.m. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.


    Thursday – February 2

    Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include ConocoPhillips (COP), Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Starbucks (SBUX), Ford Motor (F), Qualcomm (QCOM). Options trading implies a double-digit swing up or down when Canada Goose (GOOS) reports.

    All day – The GamesBeat Summit: Into the Metaverse 3 two-day virtual conference will begin. The event will include a focus on the findings and emerging trends within the metaverse. The tone could be of interest to investors holding the Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF (METV).

    All day – Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO) will host its 2023 investor update event. A webcast will feature presentations by members of the senior management team on earnings results, long-term goals, and will include an update on the 3D’s Strategy (Digital, Delivery and Drive-thru).

    10:00 a.m. Texas Instruments (TXN) will webcast the company’s capital management review. Execs plan to share TI’s strategy to maximize long-term growth of free cash flow per share. They will also review TI’s 2022 performance against its stated capital management metrics and discuss management’s expectations for performance in the years ahead.

    1:30 p.m. Bionano Genomics (BNGO) will hold a strategy day event.


    Friday – February 3

    Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include Cigna (CI) and Church & Dwight (CHD). In addition to reporting earnings, Church & Dwight (CHD) will also hold an analyst day event with a strategy update and longer-term guidance.

    All day – Shareholders with Aesther Healthcare Acquisition (AEHA) will vote on the SPAC deal to take Ocean Biomedical public.

    8:30 a.m. The January jobs report is forecast to show a gain of 175K jobs. The unemployment rate is seen trickling up to 3.6% and average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% month-over-month.


    Some of the notable companies expected to boost their dividend payouts next week include

    Old Dominion (ODFL) to $0.40 from $0.30, Bath & Body Works (NYSE:BBWI) to $0.25 from $0.20, Invitation Homes (NYSE:INVH) to $0.27 to $0.22, and Exponent (EXPO) to $0.27 from $0.24. Also in the dividend world, there could be some attention on Nordson (NASDAQ:NDSN), C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW), and J.M. Smucker (SJM) with the three stocks being added to S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index on February 1 The index is made up of stocks in the broader S&P 500 index that have increased their dividends in each of the past 25 years at least.
    Nordson, which joined the S&P 500 last year, has actually had 42 straight years of dividend raises.

    The highest yielding stocks on the S&P 500 Index are V.F. Corporation (VFC) 6.8%, International Paper (NYSE:IP) 5.1% and Ford Motor (F) 4.7%. The highest yielding stocks on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are Verizon (VZ) 6.48%, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) 5.26%, and 3M (MMM) 5.25%.


    U.S. auto sales preview:

    New vehicle sales in January are forecast by Cox Automotive to show a surprising gain when announced next week. Light new-vehicle sales are expected to rise 2.7% from a year ago, but fall 19.8% from last month. The research firm expects the seasonally adjusted annual rate to finish near 15.6M, a large increase from the 13.3M pace seen in December.

    “As we start 2023, high interest rates continue to hold back the new-vehicle market, while some concerns with inventory supply appear to be falling away,” noted Cox economist Charlie Chesbrough. Inventories are said to be improving, although some Asian brands continue to have extremely limited availability. TrueCar forecasts a 16M unit SAAR pace for the month and sees average transaction prices falling 2% from December.

    Automakers expected to post big gains in January include BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), General Motors (GM), Honda (HMC), and Tesla (TSLA) – while Stellantis (STLA) and Toyota (TM) are seen giving up market share for the month. S&P Global Mobility forecast battery electric vehicle share is expected to reach 7.4% in January to mark an all-time record high mix level. Tesla’s (TSLA) downward price adjustments are said to be a notable factor.

    “While this is the first shot in a BEV price war, the reaction of other auto companies will determine whether the January mix level will be a blip in the trend or a dynamic tipping point in the electrification progress of the market,” noted S&P.


    Barron’s mentions:

    Lowe’s (LOW) landed a surprise callout this weekend amid growing concerns on the housing market and the impact of a potential recession in the U.S. The publication pointed out that the home improvement retailer has a plan to minimize the damage by cutting advertising expenses and delaying some longer-term projects.

    By Barron’s calculations, even if sales drop to $87B for Lowe’s this year in a worst-case scenario, margins would come in at 13.3% vs. 12.9% in 2022. EPS is seen being on a reasonable path to $20 a year by 2026 to represent roughly 10% compound annual growth rate from last year’s mark. The main takeaway is that the current share prices offer long-term investors a compelling entry point with the stock trading at a discount to both rival Home Depot and the S&P 500 index.



    Tom Verlaine, Founding Member of Rock Band Television, Dies at Age 73

    Band’s album ‘Marquee Moon’ is widely considered one of the best records of the 1970s

    Tom Verlaine, an innovative guitarist and founding member of the rock band Television, one of the most influential acts of New York’s CBGB punk scene in the late 1970s, has died at the age of 73.

    Mr. Verlaine died in New York City after a brief illness, according to a spokeswoman, Cara Hutchison. No cause was specified. Mr. Verlaine’s last studio album, as a solo artist, came out in 2006.

    An era-shaping guitarist with an experimental, adventurous flair and a spiky, angular sound, Mr. Verlaine was best known for his work as the frontman of the short-lived Television, which broke up after two albums that met with meager commercial success.

    The band’s 1977 album “Marquee Moon” is widely considered one of the best records of the 1970s. Mr. Verlaine, who became a solo singer-songwriter after Television, also collaborated with musicians including David Bowie and Patti Smith.

    Led by Mr. Verlaine on vocals, Television helped define the guitar sound of the punk era by embracing a rawer style of improvisation that departed from traditional blues. Despite its modest sales, Television laid a sonic foundation for decades of punk, alternative and post-punk bands.

    Born Thomas Miller in 1949 and raised in Wilmington, Del., Mr. Verlaine had training as a classical pianist. He moved to New York City’s Lower East Side in 1968, influenced by jazz artists such as John Coltrane and rock bands such as the Rolling Stones. Television took shape over the course of the 1970s, becoming a creative force in New York’s punk underground along with Ms. Smith (Mr. Verlaine appears on her 1975 album “Horses”), Talking Heads, the Ramones and Blondie. Television, whose intricate songwriting and lyrical guitar lines set it apart on the scene, signed with Elektra Records and released two albums, before disbanding.

    Mr. Verlaine continued as a solo artist in the late 1970s and 1980s, impressing the British press in particular and releasing albums including the well-received 1981 record “Dreamtime” and 1984’s “Cover.” Television briefly re-formed and toured, producing a self-titled album in 1992. In recent decades, Mr. Verlaine collaborated often with Ms. Smith and made more solo albums, including instrumental records.

    On Saturday, musical figures including Debbie Harry, Steve Albini and the Bangles’ Susanna Hoffs honored Mr. Verlaine’s legacy on social media. Ms. Harry posted a photograph of Mr. Verlaine with a red heart. Stuart Braithwaite of the experimental post-rock band Mogwai said he was devastated.

    “His role in our culture and straight up awesomeness on the electric guitar was completely legendary,” Mr. Braithwaite wrote on Twitter. “Name 10 minutes of music as good as Marquee Moon. You can’t. It’s perfect. Rest in peace Tom.”



    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note.

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.2%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -2.7%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.1%,
    India’s Sensex: +0.3%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.4%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%.


    New Zealand’s December trade deficit NZD475 mln (expected deficit of NZD1.75 bln; last deficit of NZD2.18 bln)
    China’s Shanghai Composite followed its week-long closure with a higher open and a daylong pullback from opening highs.
    Press reports in China noted that cities have room to reduce their mortgage rates.
    China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported that domestic trips were up 23% yr/yr during the past week, but down 11.4% from the 2019 level.
    Standard & Poor’s affirmed Australia’s AAA rating with a Stable outlook.


    Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note while the U.K.’s FTSE (+0.1%) holds a slight gain.

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.6%,
    Germany’s DAX: -0.6%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.1%,
    France’s CAC 40: -0.5%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.3%,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.2%.


    Eurozone’s January Business and Consumer Survey 99.9 (expected 97.0; last 97.1)
    Germany’s Q4 GDP -0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last 0.5%); 0.5% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 1.3%)
    Italy’s December non-EU trade surplus EUR4.08 bln (last surplus of EUR2.01 bln)
    Spain’s January CPI -0.3% m/m (last 0.2%); 5.8% yr/yr (expected 4.9%; last 5.7%). January Business Confidence -4.3 (last -5.1). December Retail Sales 4.0% yr/yr (last -0.5%)
    Swiss January KOF Leading Indicators 97.2 (expected 93.3; last 91.5)
    Concerns about a recession in the eurozone are back in the discussion after Germany’s GDP contracted during Q4 against expectations for no growth.
    Ryanair expects strong bookings during the summer.
    Fitch raised Greece’s rating to BB+ from BB with a Stable outlook.

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