Traders Market Weekly: Big Three Central Banks Resolve to be Tested.

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    New home sales increased 2.3% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units (consensus 614,000) from a downwardly revised 602,000 (from 640,000) in November. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 26.6%.

    The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects how the pullback in mortgage rates has spurred some renewed demand among home buyers; however, affordability and supply pressures remain for many prospective buyers and that is holding back overall sales.


    The weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories showed a draw of 91 bcf following last week’s draw of 82 bcf.

    Natural gas futures are down 6.2% to $2.73/mmbtu. On a related note, the S&P 500 energy sector is among the top performers, up 1.4%.

    Into The Vortex – US Natural Gas Stocks Fall -91Bcf Vs Five Year Average -185Bcf


    Dow 33,949.41 205.57 0.61%
    S&P 500 4,060.43 44.21 1.10%
    Nasdaq 11,512.41 199.06 1.76%
    VIX 18.73 -0.35 -1.83%
    Gold 1,929.90 -12.70 -0.65%
    Oil 81.09 0.94 1.17%


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note while markets in China remained closed for Lunar New Year but they will reopen on Monday.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.1% (+3.1% for the week)
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.5% (+2.9% for the week)
    China’s Shanghai Composite: CLOSED (UNCH for the week)
    India’s Sensex: -1.5% (-2.1% for the week)
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.6% (+3.7% for the week)
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3% (+0.6% for the week)


    Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI increased at its fastest pace since May 1981, but Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida said that inflation driven by domestic demand remains “feeble” and that a return to deflation should not be ruled out.
    Japan’s government debt is expected to exceed quadrillion yen in fiscal 2026/27.
    South Korea’s POSCO Holdings reported a 46.7% yr/yr drop in 2022 profit resulting from a four-month suspension of its operations.
    Japan’s January Tokyo CPI 4.4% yr/yr (last 4.0%) and Core CPI 4.3% yr/yr (expected 4.2%; last 4.0%)
    South Korea’s February Manufacturing BSI Index 66 (last 71)
    Singapore’s Q4 URA Property Index 0.4% qtr/qtr (last 3.8%)
    Australia’s Q4 PPI 0.7% qtr/qtr (expected 1.7%; last 1.9%); 5.8% yr/yr (expected 6.3%; last 6.4%). Q4 Import Price Index 1.8% qtr/qtr (last 3.0%) and Export Price Index -0.9% qtr/qtr (last -3.6%)
    New Zealand’s January ANZ Business Confidence -52.0 (expected -64.2; last -70.2)


    Major European indices trade in mixed fashion.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: UNCH (+0.4% week-to-date)
    Germany’s DAX: -0.2% (+0.4% week-to-date)
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: UNCH (-0.1% week-to-date)
    France’s CAC 40: -0.2%(+1.2% week-to-date)
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.3% (+2.1% week-to-date)
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.1% (+1.2% week-to-date)


    Spain reported better than expected growth for Q4, fueling more hopes that the region could avoid a recession.
    The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt pushed back against calls for a tax cut from Conservative politicians.
    Norway is reportedly looking to implement a mechanism to limit power exports.
    Eurozone’s December loans to nonfinancials 6.3% yr/yr (expected 8.6%; last 8.4%) and private sector loans 3.8% yr/yr (last 4.1%)
    France’s January Consumer Confidence 80 (expected 83; last 81)
    Italy’s November Industrial Sales 0.9% m/m (last -0.8%); 11.5% yr/yr (last 12.5%)
    Spain’s Q4 GDP 0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.2%); 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.2%; last 4.8%)


    Visa (V 227.00, +2.29, +1.0%): beats by $0.17, beats on revs
    L3Harris (LHX 202.00, +5.46, +2.8%): misses by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line
    Intel (INTC 27.22, -2.87, -9.5%): misses by $0.10, misses on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
    KLA Corporation (KLAC 409.38, -19.38, -4.5%): beats by $0.29, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS midpoint below consensus, revs midpoint below consensus
    Hasbro (HAS 60.15, -3.63, -5.7%): guides Q4 below consensus; cites a challenging holiday consumer environment; COO to step down; to eliminate approximately 15% of its workforce and implement leadership and other organizational changes
    Chevron (CVX 184.83, -2.96, -1.6%): misses by $0.20, beats on revs
    Colgate-Palmolive (CL 73.10, -2.43, -3.2%): reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line
    American Express (AXP 163.82, +7.94, +5.1%): misses by $0.17, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; plans dividend increase
    Charter Comm (CHTR 400.00, -10.39, -2.5%): misses by $1.26, reports revs in-line
    Eastman Chemical (EMN 88.90, -2.85, -3.1%): misses by $0.35, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus


    Personal income was up 0.2% month-over-month in December, as expected, and personal spending was down 0.2% month-over-month (consensus -0.1%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from +0.1%) in November. Real personal spending declined 0.3% month-over-month in December.

    The PCE Price Index was up 0.1% month-over-month (consensus 0.0%) and the core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3%, as expected. That left the year-over-year changes at 5.0% and 4.4%, respectively, versus 5.5% and 4.7% in November.

    The key takeaway from the report is that it showed a continued moderation of inflation pressures, although the inflation rates are still too high for the Fed’s liking — particularly services inflation which was up 0.5% month-over-month following a 0.3% increase in November — and will keep the Fed in a vigilant, inflation-fighting mode.


    The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 5 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value.

    The 2-yr Treasury note yield is up three basis points to 4.21% and the 10-yr note yield is up six basis points to 3.54%.

    The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 102.05.


    Dow 33,978.08 28.67 0.08%
    S&P 500 4,070.56 10.13 0.25%
    Nasdaq 11,621.71 109.30 0.95%
    VIX 18.36 -0.37 -1.98%
    Gold 1,928.60 -1.40 -0.07%
    Oil 79.41 -1.60 -1.98%


    January 29 – Feb 4, 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The W
    [See the full post at: Traders Market Weekly: Big Three Central Banks Resolve to be Tested.]

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