Traders Market Weekly: Climbing The Wall of Worry

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    FHLB’s debt issuance plunges.

    Bloomberg reporting that according to sources, the FHLB debt issuances have plunged to $37 billion in the last week of March from over $300B two weeks earlier. The plunge from the all-time peak is an early sign that the banking crisis has started to subside.

    FHLBs backstop created to boost mortgage lending.

    The system known as the “lender of the next to last resort” (behind the Fed). They fund the lending through issuance of debt. The sharp fall is indicative of less of a need to be that lender to troubled institutions.


    New York Fed 1 year inflation expectations rises to 4.7% from 4.2%

    1 year inflation expectations rises to 4.7% from 4.2% last month. First rise in five months
    3 year expect inflation 2.8% versus 2.7% last month
    5 year inflation expectations dips to 2.5% versus 2.6% last month

    Share of Americans seeing harder credit access in March highest since 2014


    ^^^^ +1s for great insight above as we start a new week
    The WALL STREET BULLS still want to RUN as Q1 was a good rebound
    Still in 2023 will the theme of “SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY APPLY?”
    And hope all had blessed holidays & that Easter Bunny was good to them 🙂


    Ohhhh the humanity – lol … as our pug SAMSON will soon be 2 years old 🙂


    Dow 33,586.52 101.23 0.30%
    S&P 500 4,109.11 4.09 0.10%
    Nasdaq 12,084.36 -3.60 -0.03%
    VIX 18.97 0.57 3.10%
    Gold 2,006.50 -19.90 -0.98%
    Oil 79.83 -0.87


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +1.1%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.8%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.1%
    India’s Sensex: +0.5%
    South Korea’s Kospi: +1.4%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +1.2%


    China’s CPI was cooler than expected in March, reducing the yr/yr rate to 0.7%, its lowest level since September 2021.

    China’s March CPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.5%); 0.7% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last 1.0%). March PPI -2.5% yr/yr, as expected (last -1.4%).
    March New Loans CNY3.89 trln (expected CNY3.235 trln; last CNY1.810 trln) and March Total Social Financing CNY5.38 trln (expected CNY4.50 trln; last CNY3.16 trln)


    Japan will chair a meeting of G7 finance leaders in Washington tomorrow.


    China will conduct a three-month review of duties imposed on barley from Australia.

    Australia’s April Westpac Consumer Sentiment 9.4% (expected 1.5%; last 0.0%). March NAB Business Survey 16, as expected (last 17) and NAB Business Confidence -1 (expected -2; last -4)


    South Korea’s exports were down 8.6% yr/yr through the first ten days of April with chip exports falling 39.8%.

    The Bank of Korea left its base rate at 3.50%, as expected.


    Japan’s March Machine Tool Orders -15.2% yr/yr (expected -17.0%; last -10.7%)


    Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note while Spain’s IBEX (-0.9%) underperforms due to a weak showing from banks and construction names.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%
    Germany’s DAX: +0.2%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.2%
    France’s CAC 40: +0.8%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.6%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.9%


    Italy increased its 2023 domestic growth forecast to 1.0% from 0.6% while the outlook for 2024 was reduced to 1.4% from 1.9%.

    European Central Bank policymaker de Cos repeated that the central bank is not done hiking rates.

    Eurozone’s April Sentix Investor Confidence -8.7 (expected -9.9; last -11.1). February Retail Sales -0.8% m/m, as expected (last 0.8%); -3.0% yr/yr (expected -3.5%; last -1.8%)


    British Prime Minister Sunak is expected to call a general election for the fall.


    Moving the Market

    Wait-and-see mode ahead of the March Consumer Price Index tomorrow and earnings from several large banks on Friday

    New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) saying he expects inflation pressures to cool gradually and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.0-4.5%

    Relative weakness in mega cap stocks

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 71 total)
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