Traders Market Weekly: Inflation and Bank Run Charades

Viewing 15 posts - 76 through 90 (of 90 total)
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    China’s April Caixin Services PMI 56.4 (expected 57.3; last 57.8)
    China’s Caixin Services PMI remained in expansion for the fourth consecutive month in April, though the pace of growth slowed.
    Foxconn’s revenue was down nearly 12.0% yr/yr in April.


    Australia’s March Home Loans 6.5% m/m (expected -1.0%; last -1.2%)

    Singapore’s March Retail Sales 2.2% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 4.1%); 4.5% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; last 12.6%)

    Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida repeated that he does not intend to call an election at this time.


    Major European indices trade in the green.

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.3% (-1.0% week-to-date),
    Germany’s DAX: +0.7% (-0.4% week-to-date),
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.4% (-1.7% week-to-date),
    France’s CAC 40: +0.5% (-1.5% week-to-date),
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.5% (UNCH week-to-date),
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.5% (-1.6% week-to-date).


    Eurozone’s March Retail Sales -1.2% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.2%); -3.8% yr/yr (expected -3.1%; last -2.4%)

    European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said that he prefers smaller rate hikes and that a several more increases are likely to take place.

    The ECB’s latest survey of professional forecasters showed a downward revision to inflation expectations for the year (to 5.6% from 5.9%) while the growth forecast for 2023 was revised up to 0.6% from 0.2%.


    Germany’s March Factory Orders -10.7% m/m (expected -2.2%; last 4.5%)
    France’s March Industrial Production -1.1% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 1.4%). Q1 nonfarm payrolls 0.2% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.2%)
    Italy’s March Retail Sales 0.0% m/m, as expected (last -0.1%); 5.8% yr/yr (expected 4.4%; last 5.8%)
    Spain’s March Industrial Production 4.5% yr/yr (expected -0.1%: last 0.1%)
    Swiss April CPI 0.0% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.2%); 2.6% yr/yr (expected 2.8%; last 2.9%). April Unemployment Rate 1.9%, as expected (last 1.9%)


    U.K.’s April Construction PMI 51.1 (expected 51.0; last 50.7)


    Apple (AAPL 170.27, +4.48, +2.7%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; iPhones ahead of expectations; Macs miss; raises dividend 4%; authorized an additional program to repurchase up to $90 billion of common stock; expects June quarter revenue performance to similar to the March quarter. F/X will have a negative impact of 4%. Services revenue growth will be similar to March quarter; expects gross margin of 44.0-44.5%

    Lyft (LYFT 9.03, -1.66, -15.5%): beats by $0.15, beats on revs, adjusted EBITDA of $22.7 mln, exceeding prior guidance of $5-$15 mln; guides Q2 revs below consensus; Expects rideshare ride growth to accelerate further in Q2 as new pricing takes full effect

    Coinbase Global (COIN 53.46, +4.24, +8.6%): reports Q1 (Mar) results, beats on revs; expects subscription and services revs of ~$300 mln in Q2

    Carvana (CVNA 9.85, +2.65, +36.8%): beats by $0.36, reports revs in-line; expects to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q2

    Block (SQ 62.67, +2.24, +3.7%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs, GPV up 17% yr/yr; raises FY23 adjusted EBITDA outlook; Focusing heavily on markets in Africa, LatAm, Asia, and Oceania going forward

    Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 11.69, -0.64, -5.2%): misses by $0.32, reports revs in-line

    Bumble Inc. (BMBL 19.30, +1.66, +9.4%): misses by $0.13, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance; approves $150 mln share repurchase

    Booking Holdings (BKNG 2543.00, -60.57, -2.3%): beats by $0.81, reports revs in-line

    DoorDash (DASH 65.52, +2.69, +4.3%): beats on EPS and adjusted EBITDA, beats on revs

    Cirrus Logic (CRUS 82.33, -2.52, -3.0%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides JunQ revs below consensus

    Atlassian (TEAM 130.25, -19.80, -13.2%): beats by $0.21, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman

    Expedia Group (EXPE 94.25, +5.08, +5.7%): misses by $0.23, reports revs in-line (BILL 92.49, +12.58, +15.7%): beats by $0.26, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus


    Disney (DIS 98.05, +0.60, +0.6%): Florida legislators pass bill allowing tourism board to cancel Disney development agreements, according to Reuters.


    PacWest (PACW 3.8000, +0.63, +19.9%) and Western Alliance (WAL 20.60, +2.40, +13.2%): rebound effort underway following yesterday’s outsized losses


    Ahead of Jobs:

    The S&P 500 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 88 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 180 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value.

    Stock futures boosted by a decent earnings-related gain in Apple along with rebound price action in regional bank stocks after sharp declines recently.

    Treasury yields are moving higher as the flight to safety trade unwinds somewhat. The 2-yr note yield is up nine basis points to 3.83% and the 10-yr note yield is up six basis points to 3.41%. The U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 101.39.

    Oil prices are reclaiming lost ground, trading back above $70.00/bbl, up 2.7% to $70.42/bbl.


    There were some sizable downward revisions accompanying the April employment report that combined left employment in February and March 149,000 lower than previously reported; however, nonfarm payroll growth sprung back nicely in April from the revised March level. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, dipped to 3.4% from 3.5%, matching the 54-year low seen earlier this year in January.

    The latter point notwithstanding, there are some elements of weakness in the data, namely that the average workweek remained at 34.4 hours, temporary help positions declined by 23,300, and persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more increased to 20.6% of the unemployed versus 18.9% in March. An attention-grabbing strong suit in the report, though, is that average hourly earnings were up 4.5% year-over-year versus 4.3% in March.

    The key takeaway from the report is that it substantiates why the Fed isn’t inclined to cut rates soon, but at the same time the continued strength in the labor market after nine rate hikes (the 10th rate hike came after the data for April were collected) lends some hope to the idea that a soft landing for the economy is still possible.


    The flight to safety trade continues to unwind in the Treasury market in response to the employment report. The 2-yr note yield is up 13 basis points to 3.87% and the 10-yr note yield is up nine basis points to 3.44%.


    Happy ANNIV to the great folks in MEXICO — as stocks are rallying on mother of all reports
    The BIDEN ADMIN have infused so many trillions of $$$ – it’s tough to tame for FED & inflation
    Hopefully the TWO new troubled regional banks won’t fail
    as they wrote a lot of 3% loans in a now 6% world (and many are upside down)
    RALLY TIME on WALL STREET – but still one should be CAUTIOUS as dangers


    Dow 33,674.38 546.64 1.65%
    S&P 500 4,136.25 75.03 1.85%
    Nasdaq 12,235.41 269.01 2.25%
    VIX 17.20 -2.89 -14.39%
    Gold 2,025.40 -30.30 -1.47%
    Oil 71.33 2.77 4.04%


    May 7-13, 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… What’s Inside?
    [See the full post at: Traders Market Weekly: Inflation and Bank Run Charades]

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