Traders Market Weekly: Avoid Whiplash, Fasten Your Seatbelts

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    February 6 – 12 2022 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… Image: EC
    [See the full post at: Traders Market Weekly: Avoid Whiplash, Fasten Your Seatbelts]

    • This topic was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by TradersCom.
    • This topic was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by CautiousInvestor.
    • This topic was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by TradersCom.
    • This topic was modified 1 year ago by TradersCom.

    FUTUREs just went GREEN … Bulls will soon be in HEAVEN as my FAV Christian type group proclaims (with outstanding guitar work) … Volatility & market dangers abound — so Cavet Emperoer to WALL STREET bulls … Bambi & me are putting our CASH under the mattress for now 😉 🙂


    Good morning CI – Los Lonely Boys – good fun a little Tex Mex music. We have their Christmas album 🙂


    Another Week:

    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: -10.0
    10 yr Note: 1.913%
    USD/JPY: 115.05 -0.14
    EUR/USD: 1.1426 -0.0023
    Europe: FTSE: +0.1% DAX: 0.0% CAC: -0.2%
    Asia: Hang Seng: 0.0% Shanghai: +2.0% Nikkei: -0.7%
    Gold (1813.20 +5.40) Silver (22.76 +0.28) Crude (91.18 -1.15)


    The global equity markets are mildly mixed heading into the the start of the week. S&P Futures are down about 10 points to trade around the 4482 area. The market has been relatively quiet with a range bound session high of 4504.25 and a low of 4471.25.

    In Asia, China rose 2% while Japan slid 0.7%. Chinese markets returned to action with a tidy advance following the Lunar New Year festivities. Traders dismissed the latest Caixin Services PMI data that showed a slower expansion in January to 51.4 compared to the December reading of 53.1. In Japan, the Nikkei was weighed down by semiconductors with Advantest losing 3% and Tokyo Electron shedding over 1%.

    In Europe, the major bourses are little changed. The DAX may be stalling after German Industrial Production missed expectations. The December print dropped 0.3% compared to the forecast of 0.4%. Outside of that, the economic slate was minimal. Mining stocks are representing notable strength with names such as Antofagasta, Glencore and Anglo American advancing by about 1%.


    Key factors driving the futures market:

    Some M&A buzz with Spirit Airlines (SAVE) and Frontier Airlines (ULCC) planning to merge; press reports suggest Peloton (PTON) is being eyed by a few suitors
    Continuing rebound bid as the market has shown more resilience of late to selling interest
    NSA Adviser Sullivan says Russia could invade Ukraine relatively soon


    Research calls of note:

    Upgrades: POWI, SNOW, TSM, AWK, AINV
    Downgrades: EXC, SO, APD, BLDP, CI


    Major European indies trade near their flat lines.

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.2% Germany’s DAX: +0.3% U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.5% France’s CAC 40: +0.1% Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.2% Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.5%.


    Eurozone’s February Sentix Investor Confidence 16.6 (expected 15.2; last 14.9)
    Germany’s December Industrial Production -0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%)
    U.K.’s January Halifax House Price Index 0.3% m/m (last 1.1%); 9.7% yr/yr (last 9.8%)
    Swiss January Unemployment Rate 2.3% (expected 2.4%; last 2.4%)

    The spread between Italy’s 10-yr yield and Germany’s 10-yr yield has increased to a level not seen since August.
    European Central Bank policymaker Knot said that he expects that the first ECB rate hike will be made in Q4.


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note while markets in New Zealand were closed for a holiday.

    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.7% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: UNCH China’s Shanghai Composite: +2.0% India’s Sensex: -1.8% South Korea’s Kospi: -0.2% Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%.


    China’s January Caixin Services PMI 51.4 (last 53.1)

    Japan’s December Leading Index 0.4% m/m (last 1.7%) and Coincident Indicator -0.2% m/m (last 3.0%)

    Australia’s January Retail Sales -4.4% m/m (expected -4.4%; last 7.3%); 8.2% qtr/qtr (expected 8.1%; last -4.4%). December AIG Services Index 56.2 (last 49.6) and MI Inflation Gauge 0.4% m/m (last 0.2%)

    Domestic tourism was down 2% during the Lunar New Year holiday in China while box office sales were down 23%.
    Press reports indicated that China has not meaningfully complied with the Phase 1 trade deal.
    China’s Caixin Services PMI fell to its lowest level since August in the January reading.


    Spirit Airlines (SAVE 24.35, +2.62): +12.1% after agreeing to merge with Frontier Airlines (ULCC 12.08, -0.31, -2.5%) in a $6.6 billion cash-and-stock deal. On a related note, both companies beat EPS estimates.
    Peloton (PTON 31.98, +7.38): +30.0% amid reports indicating that the company is drawing acquisition interest from companies including (AMZN 3158.00, +5.21, +0.2%) and Nike (NKE 146.00, +0.61, +0.4%).
    Tyson Foods (TSN 93.35, +5.06): +5.7% after beating top and bottom-line estimates.
    Hasbro (HAS 96.00, +2.08): +2.2% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and raising its dividend by 3%.
    Cerence (CRNC 48.50, -15.08): -23.7% after guiding Q2 revenue below consensus and lowering its FY22 revenue below consensus. The company’s CFO will retire on March 11.


    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.7%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: UNCH
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +2.0%
    India’s Sensex: -1.8%
    South Korea’s Kospi: -0.2%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%


    OLYMPIC MEDAL COUNT LINK (ranked by # of GOLDs)


    Australia doing good for a non winter sport country 1 gold and bronze

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