Traders Market Weekly: Disconnect of World at War and Stock Market Euphoria

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 67 total)
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    Hong Kong
    December Retail Sales 7.8% yr/yr (last 15.9%)
    Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed the Fed’s policy announcement with a hold of its own.


    China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory for the third month in a row while Japan’s Manufacturing PMI pointed to a continued contraction for the eighth month in a row.


    The Bank of Japan’s January purchases of JGBs were at the lowest level since June, boosting expectations for an exit from negative rate policy in the coming months.


    Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note.
    STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%,
    Germany’s DAX: -0.1%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.1%,
    France’s CAC 40: -0.7%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.1%,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.4%.

    Shell beat quarterly expectations, raised its dividend, and announced a buyback.
    Deutsche Bank beat profit expectations and announced a plan to cut 3,500 jobs.
    BNP Paribas missed earnings expectations and lowered its profit target for the year.


    January Manufacturing PMI 46.6, as expected (last 44.4).
    January CPI -0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.2%); 2.8% yr/yr (expected 2.7%; last 2.9%).
    January Core CPI -0.9% m/m (last 0.5%); 3.3% yr/yr (expected 3.2%; last 3.4%).
    December Unemployment Rate 6.4%, as expected (last 6.4%)


    Final January Manufacturing PMI readings from Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the U.K. remained in contractionary territory.
    Eurozone’s January Manufacturing PMI 46.6, as expected (last 44.4).
    Germany’s January Manufacturing PMI 45.5 (expected 45.4; last 43.3)
    U.K.’s January Manufacturing PMI 47.0 (expected 47.3; last 46.2)
    France’s January Manufacturing PMI 43.1 (expected 43.2; last 42.1)
    Italy’s January Manufacturing PMI 48.5 (expected 47.0; last 45.3).
    Spain’s January Manufacturing PMI 49.2 (expected 47.9; last 46.2)
    Swiss January PMI 43.1 (expected 44.5; last 43.0)


    January Manufacturing PMI 48.5 (expected 47.0; last 45.3).
    January CPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.2%); 0.8% yr/yr (expected 1.1%; last 0.6%)


    The Bank of England left its bank rate at 5.25%, as expected, while Sweden’s central bank left its repurchase rate at 4.00% and accelerated the pace of its quantitative tightening program.


    Merck (MRK 122.16, +1.38, +1.1%): beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; provides long term guidance for the decade of the 2030s in slide presentation: Oncology sales of >$20 bln; Cardiometabolic sales of approximately $15 bln
    Cardinal Health (CAH 105.00, -4.19, -3.8%): beats by $0.22, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus
    Sanofi (SNY 49.09, -0.81, -1.6%): reports Q4 (Dec) results, misses on revs; names new CFO


    Honeywell (HON 197.72, -4.54, -2.2%): beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs below consensus; Kapur to be Chairman of the Board
    Eaton (ETN 251.50, +5.42, +2.2%): beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS above consensus; guides FY24 EPS mostly above consensus
    Altria (MO 406.2, +0.50, +1.3%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS in-line; authorizes new $1 bln share repurchase program
    Qualcomm (QCOM 145.60, -2.91, -2.0%): beats by $0.38, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line; Currently navigating industry-wide inventory drawdown; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
    MetLife (MET 68.00, -1.32, -1.9%): reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; targeting adjusted return on equity of 13-15%, FCF ratio of 65-75% of adjusted earnings
    Qorvo (QRVO 105.00, +5.26, +5.3%): beats by $0.44, beats on revs; guides MarQ EPS above consensus, mid-point of revs above consensus; has reached a definitive agreement to acquire Anokiwave; financial terms were not disclosed
    C.H. Robinson (CHRW 80.10, -3.99, -4.7%):misses by $0.30, misses on revs
    Align Tech (ALGN 302.43, +35.11, +13.1%): beats by $0.24, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus
    Wolfspeed (WOLF 30.55, -2.00, -6.1%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs below consensu
    Peloton (PTON 5.70, +0.14, +2.5%): reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs in-line


    Boeing (BA 213.91, +2.87, +1.4%): FAA’s previously announced audit of 737 MAX production to include Spirit AeroSystems’ (SPR) fuselage production system, according to Reuters


    Q4 nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.2% (consensus 2.1%) following a downwardly revised 4.9% (from 5.2%) in the third quarter. Unit labor costs rose just 0.5% ( consensus 1.9%) following an upwardly revised 1.1% decline (from -1.2%) in the third quarter.

    The key takeaway from the report is the tame increase in unit labor costs. That is being seen by the market as another inflation-friendly signal for the Fed to take into account as it considers when it might cut rates.


    Initial jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 224,000 for the week ending January 27, pushing the four-week moving average up by 5,250 to 207,750. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending January 20 increased by 70,000 to 1.898 million.

    The key takeaway from the report is that it shows some softening in labor market conditions that remain consistent with the soft landing outlook.

    Treasury yields turned lower in response.

    The 10-yr note yield, at 3.92% just before 8:30 ET, sits at 3.89% now, which is down eight basis points from yesterday. The 2-yr note yield, at 4.21% before the data, is down five basis points from yesterday at 4.18%.


    The January ISM Manufacturing PMI checked in at 49.1% (consensus 47.3%), up from a downwardly revised 47.1% (from 47.4%) in December. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the January reading indicates an ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector, but at a slower pace than the previous month. January marked the 15th straight month the PMI reading has been below 50.0%; however, it was the highest level for the index since October 2022.

    The key takeaway from the report is that the contraction in manufacturing isn’t gaining steam. The index hovers near the breakeven mark of 50.0%, which will continue to play into the market’s soft landing outlook.


    Total construction spending increased 0.9% month-over-month in December (consensus 0.4%) following an upwardly revised 0.9% increase (from 0.4%) in November. Total private construction was up 0.7% month-over-month while total public construction was up 1.3% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was up 13.9%.

    The key takeaway from the report is that there was solid construction spending activity in both the private and public sector, with private construction up 11.8% year-over-year and public construction up 21.3% year-over-year.

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