Traders Market Weekly: A Magical Green First Quarter for Stocks

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 49 total)
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  • #73573
    Truman
    Participant

    Asia-Pacific stocks retreated Wednesday.

    India Sensex: UNCH
    #China Shanghai Composite: -0.2%
    #Taiwan Weighted: -0.6%
    #Japan Nikkei: -1.0%
    #HongKong’s Hang Seng: -1.2%
    #Australia ASX: -1.4%
    #SouthKorea’s Kospi: -1.7%
    Taiwan Earthquake Weighed

    Japan Recap
    – March Services PMI 54.1 (expected 54.9; last 52.9)
    – United States and Japan have reportedly agreed on subsidy rules for semiconductors and batteries.
    – Bank of Japan continues to buy JGBs, amount unchanged from previous offers

    China Update
    March Caixin Services #PMI 52.7, as expected (last 52.7)
    Treasury Secretary #Yellen will travel to China this weekend.
    #HongKong’s February Retail Sales 1.9% yr/yr (last 0.9%)
    Earthquake in Taiwan claimed at least 9 lives.
    #TSMC dealt with interruptions

    Australia
    March AIG Manufacturing Index -7.0 (last -12.6)
    AIG Construction Index -12.9 (last -18.4)

    #73574
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade on a mostly flat note.

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%,
    Germany’s DAX: +0.2%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.3%,
    France’s CAC 40: +0.2%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.1%,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.5%.

    Eurozone

    Inflation in the eurozone decelerated slightly in March, contributing to speculation that the European Central Bank will be in position to announce the initial rate cut in June.
    March CPI 0.8% m/m (last 0.6%); 2.4% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 2.6%).
    March Core CPI 1.1% m/m (last 0.7%); 2.9% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 3.1%).
    February Unemployment Rate 6.5% (expected 6.4%; last 6.5%)

    France
    February government budget deficit EUR44.0 bln (last deficit of EUR25.7 bln)

    Italy
    February Unemployment Rate 7.5% (expected 7.2%; last 7.3%)
    The EU Commission will order Italy to reduce spending by up to EUR4 bln to avoid EU sanctions

    Spain
    IBEX (+0.5%) outperforms with bank names contributing to the strength.

    #73575
    Truman
    Participant

    Intel (INTC 42.00, -1.94, -4.4%): outlines new financial reporting structure to reflect transition to a foundry operating model; expects Intel Foundry operating losses to peak in 2024

    Cal-Maine (CALM 62.95, +4.04, +6.9%): Foods beats by $0.55, beats on revs (two ests); to pay approx. $1.00/share dividend
    Dave & Buster’s (PLAY 65.64, +3.73, +6.0%): misses on EPS, reports revs in-line; increases share repurchase authorization by $100 mln

    Disney (DIS 122.82, 0.0, 0.0%) expected to win proxy battle with Trian Fund Management today, according to Bloomberg

    Paramount (PARA 12.05, +0.29, +2.5%): held sale discussions with Skydance last month, according to NY Times

    Signet Jewelers (SIG 96.85, +1.78, +1.9%): repurchases 50% of convertible preferred shares ahead of maturity; raises FY25 EPS guidance following preferred shares repurchase transaction and amendment to the preferred shares agreement

    Tesla (TSLA 164.27, -2.36, -1.4%): Guggenheim reiterated a Sell rating and cut its price target to $122 from $132

    #73576
    Truman
    Participant

    The ADP Employment Change estimated 184,000 private payrolls were added in March (consensus 150,000) following a revised increase of 155,000 in February (from 140,00).

    Treasury yields moved higher in response.

    The 10-yr note yield moved from 4.37% just before the release to 4.39% now.

    THEN:

    The S&P Global US Services PMI dropped to 51.7 in the final March reading from 52.3.

    The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.4% in March (consensus 52.6%) from 52.6% in the prior reading.

    Treasury yields turned lower in response. The 10-yr note yield is back below the 4.40% mark at 4.38%.

    #73577
    Truman
    Participant

    Early Market
    Dow 39280.77 +110.53 (0.28%)
    Nasdaq 16255.05 +14.60 (0.09%)
    SP 500 5217.82 +12.01 (0.23%)
    10-yr Note -27/32 4.428
    NYSE Adv 1463 Dec 1159 Vol 94 mln
    Nasdaq Adv 1893 Dec 2015 Vol 1.1 bln

    Industry Watch
    Strong: Health Care, Industrials, Materials, Financials, Energy
    Weak: Consumer Staples, Utilities, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary

    Moving the Market
    — Normal consolidation activity after strong first quarter
    — Ongoing rise in market rates
    — Digesting this morning’s economic releases
    — Gains in some heavily-weighted names providing offsetting support to broader market

    #73583

    Dow 39,127.14 -43.10 -0.11%
    S&P 500 5,211.49 5.68 0.11%
    Nasdaq 16,277.46 37.01 0.23%
    VIX 14.31 -0.30 -2.05%
    Gold 2,317.40 35.60 1.56%
    Oil 85.58 0.43 0.50%

    #73590
    Truman
    Participant

    Exxon Mobil detailed items that will impact Q1 results; changes in gas prices negatively impacting Q1 upstream earnings by $0.2-0.6 bln
    $XOM 118.70 ▼ -0.60 (-0.50%) today

    Levi Strauss (LEVI 20.87, +2.21, +11.8%): beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; raises FY24 EPS guidance, reaffirms FY24 revs guidance
    BlackBerry (BB 2.92, +0.11, +3.9%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY25 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

    Block (SQ 76.93, -2.70, -3.4%): downgrade to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
    Bank of America (BAC 37.47, +0.03, +0.1%): downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
    Wayfair (W 65.01, +2.60, +4.2%): upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI

    Alphabet (GOOG 155.34, -1.03, -0.7%): considering charging for AI-powered search, according to FT.com

    #73591
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a higher note.

    Markets in China and Hong Kong were closed for Ching Ming Festival.

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.8%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: HOLIDAY,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: HOLIDAY,
    India’s Sensex: +0.5%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: +1.3%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5%.

    India
    March Services PMI 61.2 (expected 60.3; last 60.6)

    Australia
    March Services PMI 54.4 (expected 53.5; last 53.1).
    February Building Approvals -1.9% m/m (expected 3.0%; last -2.5%); 5.2% yr/yr (last 9.8%).
    February Private House Approvals 10.7% m/m (last -9.9%)

    New Zealand
    February Building Consents 14.9% m/m (last -8.6%)

    China
    The People’s Bank of China said that it aims to create a suitable environment for an economic recovery since domestic demand is lacking.
    Treasury Secretary Yellen said at the start of her visit to China that it is important for the U.S. and China to not decouple their economies.

    Japan
    The Bank of Japan’s latest regional economic report downgraded the view for seven out of nine regions.
    Nikkei reported that the U.S. and Japan will likely announce an expansion of defense and industrial agreements when President Biden meets Prime Minister Kishida on April 10.

    #73592
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note.

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%,
    Germany’s DAX: +0.1%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.4%,
    France’s CAC 40: +0.1%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: UNCH,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.6%.

    Italy’s MIB (UNCH) lags amid weakness in financials.

    Final Services PMI readings for March were mostly better than expected with Germany’s reading (50.1) returning to expansion.

    Eurozone
    March Services PMI 51.5 (expected 51.1; last 50.2).
    February PPI -1.0% m/m (expected -0.6%; last -0.9%); -8.3% yr/yr (expected -8.6%; last -8.0%)

    Germany
    March Services PMI 50.1 (expected 49.8; last 46.3)

    U.K.
    March Services PMI 53.1 (expected 53.4; last 53.8)
    A Bank of England survey showed that price hike plans among companies are at their lowest level in more than two years.

    France
    March Services PMI 48.3 (expected 47.8; last 48.4)

    Italy
    March Services PMI 54.6 (expected 53.0; last 52.2)

    Spain
    March PMI 56.1 (expected 55.5; last 54.7)

    Swiss
    March CPI 0.0% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.6%); 1.0% yr/yr (expected 1.3%; last 1.2%)
    There is growing speculation that the Swiss National Bank will announce a rate cut after CPI growth decelerated to 1.0%, the slowest pace of growth since late 2022.

    #73593
    Truman
    Participant

    Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 30 increased by 9,000 to 221,000 (consensus 214,000). Continuing jobless claims decreased by 19,000 to 1.791 million.

    The key takeaway from the report is the element of softening seen in the initial claims number; however, initial claims continue to run well below levels associated with a truly weak labor market and a contracting economy.

    The trade deficit in February widened to $68.9 billion (consensus -$66.0 billion) from a downwardly revised -$67.6 billion (from -$67.4 billion) in January. The widening was the result of exports being $5.8 billion more than January exports and imports being $7.1 billion more than January imports.

    The key takeaway from the report, though, is that both exports and imports increased in February, reflecting a pickup in global trade.

    Treasury yields turned lower in response, which coincided with equity futures climbing.

    The 10-yr note yield was at 4.37% just before the data, but sits at 4.34% now.
    The 2-yr note yield moved from 4.69% to 4.68%.

    #73598

    Dow 38,596.98 -530.16 -1.35%
    S&P 500 5,147.21 -64.28 -1.23%
    Nasdaq 16,049.08 -228.38 -1.40%
    VIX 16.62 2.29 15.98%
    Gold 2,303.30 -11.70 -0.51%
    Oil 86.51 1.08 1.26%

    #73600
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note.
    Japan’s Nikkei: -2.0% (-3.4% for the week),
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: UNCH (+1.1% for the week),
    China’s Shanghai Composite: HOLIDAY (+0.9% for the week),
    India’s Sensex: UNCH (+0.8% for the week),
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.0% (-1.2% for the week),
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.6% (-1.6% for the week).

    Markets in China remained closed for Ching Ming Festival.

    Japan
    Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said that the central bank hopes to reduce the amount of government bond purchases in the future.

    February Household Spending 1.4% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -2.1%); -0.5% yr/yr (expected -2.8%; last -6.3%).
    February Leading Index 111.8 (expected 111.6; last 109.5) and Coincident Indicator -1.2% m/m (last -3.8%)

    South Korea
    February Current Account surplus $6.86 bln (last surplus of $3.05 bln)
    Samsung and LG reported better-than-expected preliminary results for Q1.

    Hong Kong
    March Manufacturing PMI 50.9 (last 49.7)

    Australia
    February trade surplus AUD7.28 bln (expected surplus of AUD10.50 bln; last surplus of AUD10.06 bln).
    February Imports 4.8% m/m (last 1.4%) and Exports -2.2% m/m (last 1.5%).
    February Retail Sales 0.3% m/m, as expected (last 1.1%)

    Singapore
    February Retail Sales 3.0% m/m (last -0.5%); 8.4% yr/yr (last 1.6%)

    Taiwan
    A Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company executive said that some production lines may take longer to restart after this week’s earthquake on Taiwan.

    India
    The Reserve Bank of India made no policy changes, as expected.

    #73601
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to the week.

    STOXX Europe 600: -1.1% (-1.5% week-to-date),
    Germany’s DAX: -1.4% (-1.9% week-to-date),
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.9% (-0.7% week-to-date),
    France’s CAC 40: -1.4% (-2.1% week-to-date),
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.7% (-2.6% week-to-date),
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -1.6% (-1.4% week-to-date).

    Shell cautioned that its quarterly results are expected to weaken on a sequential basis.
    Shipping giant Maersk will resume sending vessels through the Panama Canal.

    Eurozone
    February Retail Sales -0.5% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 0.0%); -0.7% yr/yr (expected -1.3%; last -0.9%)

    Germany
    February Factory Orders 0.2% m/m (expected 0.6%; last -11.4%).
    February Import Price Index -0.2% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.0%); -4.9% yr/yr (expected -4.6%; last -5.9%)

    U.K.
    House prices in the U.K. fell for the first time in six months in March.
    March Halifax House Price Index -1.0% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%); 0.3% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last 1.6%).
    March Construction PMI 50.2 (expected 49.8; last 49.7)

    France
    February Industrial Production 0.2% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.9%)

    Spain
    February Industrial Production 1.5% yr/yr (expected -0.5%; last 0.3%)

    Swiss
    March SECO Consumer Climate -38 (expected -41; last -42)

    #73602
    Truman
    Participant

    Kura Sushi (KRUS 110.11, +6.26, +6.0%): misses by $0.06, beats slightly on revs; guides FY24 revs in-line

    Duke Energy (DUK 95.72, -0.40, -0.4%): to sell stake in Pioneer Transmission joint venture to John Laing

    Apple (AAPL 169.85, +1.03, +0.6%): eliminated over 600 jobs after it ended its car project, according to CNBC

    Enphase Energy (ENPH 117.96, -2.82, -2.3%): Chief Commercial Officer David Ranhoff notified the Company of his intention to step down from his position at the Company, effective as of June 30, 2024

    Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 153.02, +0.55, +0.4%): will acquire all outstanding shares of Shockwave Medical (SWAV) for $335.00 per share in cash; conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET to discuss details of the transaction

    Teladoc (TDOC 14.26, +0.01, +0.1%): CEO departing company, effective immediately; CFO Mala Murthy appointed acting chief executive; reaffirms guidance

    Netflix (NFLX 623.98, +6.84, +1.1%): Pivotal Research reiterated a Buy rating and raised its price target to $765 from $700

    #73603
    Truman
    Participant

    The headlines from the March employment report were all good economically speaking.

    Nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.8%, average hourly earnings were up 0.3%, and the average workweek increased to 34.4 hours.

    The key takeaway from the report is that it continued to support a solid earnings growth outlook even if it didn’t necessarily support the outlook for the Fed to cut rates soon.

    Nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000 in March (consensus 200,000) following a revised increase of 270,000 in February (from 275,000). Nonfarm private payrolls rose by 232,000 in March (consensus 160,000) following a revised increase of 207,000 in February (from 223,000).
    The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in March (consensus 3.8%) from 3.9% in February.
    Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% in March (consensus 0.3%) following a revised 0.2% increase in February (from 0.1%). The average workweek rose to 34.4 hours in March (consensus 34.3) from 34.3 hours in February.

    Treasury yields moved higher in response.

    The 10-yr note yield moved from 4.32% to 4.39% after the data.
    The 2-yr note yield moved from 4.66% to 4.71%.

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