Reserve Bank of New Zealand Raise Rates by 50bp to 4.75% to Highest Since January 2009

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  • #48431
    Truman
    Participant

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Shadow Board sees the official cash rate peaking at 5.00% in 2023 with a risk of “overcorrecting.”

    #48886
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Kiwibank update on New Zealand “The RBNZ will induce a recession”

    The main points:

    The outlook for the Kiwi economy is deteriorating into a recession. Large parts of the global economy will fall into recession, as central banks hike interest rates to squash inflation. The RBNZ is even more extreme.

    The RBNZ are hell-bent on forcing inflation back within its mandated 1-to-3%yoy target band. And fair enough, their credibility as an inflation-fighter is being tested. They expect the OCR to hit 5.5% in order to achieve the required economic slowdown.

    We think a move beyond 5% is a step too far. What the RBNZ will do (hike to 5.5%), is beyond what we think the RBNZ should do. We place a much larger weight on the global slowdown, higher interest rates are effective, and Kiwi are feeling the pinch now.

    Analysts forecasts for NZD/USD:

    Dec 22: 0.65

    Jun 23 0.57

    Dec 23 0.55

    Jun 24 0.59

    Dec 24 0.63

    Jun 25 0.67

    Dec 25 0.69

    #49441
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    New Zealand to enter recession from 2Q 2023, ANZ matches NZ Treasury earlier forecast, sees higher RBNZ rates

    “Updated forecast has economy entering recession in Q2 2023, with an overall decline in economic activity of 1.3% between Q2 2023 & Q1 2024.”

    #48077
    Corporal
    Participant

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand aggressive hiking cycle continues. It raised its Official Cash Rate by another 50 bps to 4.75%, as expected. Back in N
    [See the full post at: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Raise Rates by 50bp to 4.75% to Highest Since January 2009]

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