- 18 Jul '22 at 8:51 pm #40475TradersComKeymaster
RBA July Minutes
Members agreed that further steps would need to be taken to normalise monetary conditions in Australia over the months ahead.
Members noted that gauging the level of the neutral rate is challenging in practice because it cannot be directly observed
Members considered the possibility of raising interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points.
Level of interest rates was still very low for an economy with a tight labour market and facing a period of higher inflation.
Members discussed three points, first that current cash rate is well below the lower range of estimates for the nominal neutral rate
Members viewed it as important that inflation expectations remained well anchored and that the period of higher inflation be temporary.
This suggests that further increases in interest rate will be needed to return inflation to the target over time
Longer-term measures of inflation expectations were well anchored.
Neutral rate framework indicates that if inflation expectations rise, level of nominal interest rates required to return inflation to the target will be higher than otherwise
Inflation is forecast to peak later in 2022 and then decline back towards the 2 to 3 per cent range in 2023.
Higher interest rates will also help establish a more sustainable balance between the demand for and the supply of goods and18 Jul '22 at 9:15 pm #40477TradersComKeymaster
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Michele Bullock speaking on:
How are Households Placed for Interest Rate Increases?
further rate increases will be needed in the months ahead
Financial stability risks from households “are a little elevated” but unlikely to be substantial
Risks will be important in deciding size and timing of future interest rate rises
Risks will be influenced by the future path of employment growth
Current strong growth in employment means people will have jobs to service their mortgages
Aggregate household balance sheets are in very good shape
Households have saved a large amount of money since the onset of the pandemic
Borrowers with the most debt also tend to have the highest liquidity buffers
Household sector as whole has accumulated sizeable equity via higher housing prices
House prices would have to fall a fair way for negative equity to become a systemic concern
Much of the debt is held by high-income households that have the ability to service their debt02 Aug '22 at 4:57 am #39736CorporalParticipant
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for the fourth consecutive time on Tuesday to 1.85%. The move was as expected by the RBA board. Th
[See the full post at: RBA Raises Rates Another 50bps to 1.85% as Expected]
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