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The Russian talk is all designed to put a bid under oil – that there will be a spike in oil prices and they won’t be able to catch up. Of course blame evil American shale.
Well there is this that just came out:
US crude production up to 9.481mbpd in September from 9.191mbpd (revised down from 9.203mbpd) in August – EIA
US: +290kbpd,
Texas +193kbpd,
New Mexico+43kbpd,
Alaska +31kbpd,
Colorado +22kbpd,
North Dakota +15kbpd,
Gulf of Mexico -15kbpdSo Novak has a point.
now this : via @staunovo
US oil demand contracts by 176kbpd or 0.9% y/y to 19.581mbpd in September – EIAValor Analytics @otcengine
If you thought crude vol was cheap before the #OPEC meeting.It is crushed now. Front straddle is less than $2 with half a month left in expiry.
Your favorite counter traders on OPEC $GS
Goldman Sachs via Reuters: OPEC Comments Point To A Strong Commitment To Normalizing Inventories And To Remain Data Dependent, Which Reduces Risk Of Unexpected Supply Surprises And Excess Stock Draws
Production cuts are beneficial as they can preserve this resource for future as well — when prices might be higher in years or decades ahead. I believe USA is becoming greener, cleaner, and approaching self-sufficiency. When I traveled heavily in early career, there was smog in most major cities … we had ZERO ozone warning days in all of 2017 in our area, so those EPA & pollution controls have improved environment & fuel efficiencies. If OPEC and others build too much SUPPLY, getting gas prices below $2 then it will almost make it unprofitable to harvest.
OPEC policy confirms a scenario of inventory normalization in 2H18 – UBS
The 30 November OPEC/non-OPEC producer meeting confirmed that quotas will stay in place until end-2018. Our base case remains that OECD inventories will reach 5-year
averages in 3Q18 and around that period we will see a formal or informal tapering of producer action; the deal will also be reviewed in June for adjustment depending on
market conditions. Global economic activity looks to be supportive into 2018 and should translate into another year of good oil demand growth albeit offset somewhat
by higher price headwinds. Non-OPEC growth is dampened by the quota effects but is set to be ~1.2Mb/d in 2018, dominated by the US (~1.2Mb/d of which shale makes up
~1.1Mb/d).
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