Netflix Subscriber Growth Beats $NFLX Streams To New Highs After Earnings

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  • #14416
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    Barclays initiated coverage on $NFLX with an overweight rating and a price target at 245 — 16% above yesterday’s closing price.

    Pre-market: 214.20 +1.68 (0.79%)

    #14559
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    Netflix Q4 Earnings Watch:

    Management expects increase of 1.25 million subscribers in domestic segment. U.S. contribution margin forecast around 34.4%.
    Paid domestic subscribers expected to increase 9% to >52 million from year-ago quarter.

    Consensus Estimate for domestic segment revenues is projected to be around $1.63 billion, indicating a 15.9% improvement on a year-over-year basis.

    For the fourth quarter consensus estimate for domestic subscribers is 54.1 million, up 9.5% from year-ago quarter.

    #14612
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    $NFLX Q4 Even More Impressive

    Netflixy posted $0.41 in earnings per share and $3.29 billion in revenue, beating consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters of $0.41 in EPS on revenue of $3.28 billion. In the same period of last year Netflix had EPS of $0.15 and $2.48 billion in revenue.

    During Q4 Netflix registered global net adds of 8.3 million, the highest quarter in its history and up 18% compared to last year’s record 7.05 million net adds. This exceeded the 6.3 million forecast, due primarily to stronger than expected subscriber acquisitions fueled by its original content slate and the ongoing global adoption of internet entertainment.

    In the United States, memberships rose by 2.0 million, versus the forecast of 1.25 million. Average selling price (ASP) rose 5% in this time as well.

    Internationally, Netflix added 6.36 million memberships, compared with guidance of 5.05 million, a new record for quarterly net adds for this segment. Excluding a foreign exchange impact of +$43 million, international revenue and ASP grew 59% and 12% year over year, respectively.

    In terms of guidance, the company expects to see global net adds of 6.35 million in the first quarter, compared to 5.0 million last year. This is comprised of 1.45 million in the United States and 4.90 million internationally.

    #14613
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    Merrill Lynch reiterated a Buy rating and raised its price objective to $300.

    Netflix reports strong upside of 8.3mn net new subs in 4Q vs. consensus estimates of 6.4mn- price increases not causing much churn. Key positives include strong 1Q18 guidance & domestic sub growth reaccelerating, while increased spend remains key risk. We are raising our PO to $300 as we expect Netflix to reach 310mn global subs sooner than expected.

    #14614
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    Aegis Capital maintained Hold rating & $230 price target.

    We increased our 1Q18 and 2018 subscriber estimates, while our full year revenue and operating income increased. The continued wrinkle in this model is the cash burn. Management guided 2018 FCF of negative $3B-$4B vs our prior estimate of -$2B and the reported -$2B in 2017. The cash burn, longer-term competitive pressures, and content costs inflation, keeps us on the sidelines.

    #14615
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    [b]CFRA reiterated Buy rating and raise 12-month target price by $35 to $270
    [/b]

    On premium ’18 price-to-sales of 7.8X, with a sizable upside to long-term growth.
    We raise ’18’s EPS estimate by $0.17 to $2.38 and set ’19’s at $3.82. Q4 EPS of $0.41 vs. $0.15 matched consensus.
    Revenues rose 33%, with global subscriber additions of 8.33M (international and U.S. up 6.36M and 1.98M), beating guidance by 2M for an all-time quarterly record. With more U.S. traction and key international momentum, NFLX sees Q1 net adds of 6.35M and ’18 EBIT margins of 10% (300 basis point expansion after ratcheted content spend

    ).

    #14616
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    [i][b]That rarest of species – a bear on $NFLX..
    [/b][/i]

    Wedbush maintained Underperform rating and raised its price target to $110 from $93.

    We expect Netflix to burn cash to fund content acquisition for many years, notwithstanding the fact that it has increased price three times while cash burn continues to grow. International profits may remain elusive due to competition for content and subs, and the price increases could cause a deceleration in subscriber growth. Negative FCF makes DCF valuation impossible.

    #15432
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    Netflix Inc. $NFLX downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel

    Stifel also raised its price target to $325 from $283. Netflix closed 3.2% at $325.22 on Tuesday.

    #15923
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    Netflix under 50 dma now down 4.75% at 281.35, 16% from its all-time high of 333.98 on March 12

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