Mortgage Applications Rise 26.8% as Refinancing Surges on Lower Rates

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  • #20939
    Helmholtz Watson

    Lower long term interest rates in the U.S….



    Going through the morning upgrades and downgrades and found this after this mortgage report:

    Wedbush upgraded Lennar to ‘outperform’ from ‘neutral’

    Wedbush upgraded the home builder based on mortgage rates at 2-year lows as well as a rebound in western markets.

    “We are upgrading Lennar to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL and raising our PT to $62 from $50. With mortgage rates at 2-year lows, western markets rebounding, and continuing demand for affordable housing by multiple demographic groups, investors should be willing to pay a higher multiple for homebuilder earnings which is the reason for our higher PT and the upgrade. ”


    US June NAHB housing market index Falls 64 s 67 expected

    Prior a seven-month high of 66
    Single family builders 71 v 72 prior
    Prospective buyers 48 v 49 prior
    Home sales over next six months 70 v 72 prior

    NAHB Housing Market Index in the United States averaged 50.37 from 1985 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 78 in December of 1998 and a record low of 8 in January of 2009.


    US MBA mortgage applications w/e. 14 June -3.4% v +26.8% prior

    Week ending 14 June 2019

    Purchase index 268.6 vs 278.4 prior
    Market index 511.8 vs 529.8 prior
    Refinancing index 1,888.8 vs 1,956.5 prior
    30-year mortgage rate 4.14% vs 4.12% prior

    Some air out of last week’s huge jump


    US May existing home sales 5.34m vs 5.30m expected, Prior 5.19m (revised up to 5.21m)

    Sales up 2.5%

    Sales of single family homes +2.6% to 4.75 million from – 0.9 percent decline in April
    Sales of condo +1.7 percent to 0.59 million, after +7.4 % prior month.

    The median house price increased to $277,700 from $266,900 in April and $265,100 a year earlier.

    The months’ worth of supply went up to 4.3 from 4.2 in April.

    Year-on-year, existing home sales dropped 1.1 percent. Existing Home Sales in the United States averaged 3958.46 Thousand from 1968 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 7250 Thousand in September of 2005 and a record low of 1370 Thousand in March of 1970.


    US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 21 June +1.3% v -3.4% prior

    Latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 21 June 2019

    Purchase index 266.3 vs 268.6 prior
    Market index 518.7 vs 511.8 prior
    Refinancing index 1,949.5 vs 1,888.8 prior
    30-year mortgage rate 4.06% vs 4.14% prior


    US MBA mortgage applications w/e 12 July -1.1% v -2.4% prior

    Purchase index 265.1 v 275.6 prior
    Market index 500.2 v 505.8 prior
    Refinancing index 1,827.3 v 1,799.7 prior
    30-year mortgage rate 4.12% v 4.04% prior


    [b]US housing starts for June 1253K vs 1260K estimate Down -0.9%.

    Housing starts prior revised to 1265K from 1269K previously reported
    single-family starts rise 3.5% to 847K
    multi-family housing starts fall -9.2% to 406K
    Northeast, +31.3%
    Midwest, +27.1%
    South, -9.2%
    West, -4.9%

    165K homes were authorized but not yet started, the fewest in a year, indicating builders have less of a backlog

    US building permits for June 1220K vs 1300K estimate. Down -6.1%

    Building permits prior revised to 1299K versus 1294K previously reported

    Permits were at the lowest level since May 2017, as authorizations for the volatile multi-family housing segment declined 16.8 percent to 407 thousand while single-family permits rose 0.4 percent to 813 thousand.

    Across regions, permits dropped in the South (-10.4 percent to 618 thousand); West (-7.9 percent to 313 thousand) and Midwest (-0.6 percent to 172 thousand) while increased at the Northeast (21.9 percent to 117 thousand).

    Permits for May were revised to 1,299 thousand from 1,294 thousand.

    Building Permits in the United States averaged 1355.22 Thousand from 1960 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2419 Thousand in December of 1972 and a record low of 513 Thousand in March of 2009.

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