Market Weekly: Sep 3 – Sep 9 2018

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    Where have we been and where are we…



    Just a year and week after Harvey:


    [color=brown][size=5][b]GOOD TUESDAY MORNING to all & hope all had a great labor day weekend
    feels like a Monday for those of us going to work – lol

    * FUTURES off about 100 points (will Canada accept new NAFTA?)
    * Aretha’s family did not like services being politicized with Anti-Trump comments
    * Hoping GORDON misses all the Texans (will be CAT 1 soon in warm Gulf waters) … looks like New Orleans may be in bullseye?
    * New SCOTUS appointee “Kav” to be scorched in Senate hearings today
    * both VA TECH & UVA won home openers in college football

    RADAR — GROUND ZERO for GORDON :woohoo:[/b][/size][/color]


    US August final Markit Manufacturing Lowest since November 2017
    PMI 54.7 vs 54.5 expected, Prior 55.3
    New orders 54.9 vs 54.6 prelim & prior 55.1


    [size=5][b]WOW — I listen to talk radio in background often while working …

    CHAOS at KAV hearings :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: The Supreme Court hearings for “KAV” are WILDEST I have ever heard (and he had great experience & creds — not to show any political bias or anything – lol) … DEMs on committee are talking over the chair demanding the hearings be postponed … So far 17 wild women “scripted & possibly paid” protesters have been arrested & cleared out & rules of Senate need to be obeyed – but I think DEMs may walk out of the meeting – if their vote to ADJORN meeting before it even takes place occurs ? [/b][/size]


    A disgrace politics in the US now – what a lesson for future generations


    US August ISM manufacturing index 61.3 vs 57.6 expected, Prior 58.1
    Highest since 2004

    Prices paid 72.1 vs 73.2 prior
    Production 63.6 vs 58.5 prior
    New orders 65.1 vs 60.2 prior
    Inventories 55.4 vs 53.3 prior
    Employment 58.5 vs 56.5 prior
    New export orders 55.2 vs 55.3 prior
    Imports 53.9 vs 54.7 prior

    What is with the big divergence between this report and the Markit manufacturing survey, which is at the lowest since November 2017.

    Comments from the report:

    “Busy for new orders, but the cost of raw material chemicals keeps going up.” (Chemical Products)
    “We have seen a slight uptick in international business. Suppliers do not seem to know how to handle the recently imposed tariffs. Most are waiting to re-evaluate potential price increases until September.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
    “Generally high levels of demand continue, and [we are] planning for this elevated rate through the rest of the year.” (Transportation Equipment)
    “Suppliers appear to be bracing us for cost increases, given increased talk of tariffs and inflation. We are budgeting for 2019 accordingly.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
    “The toughest thing we deal with is the unknown. Dealing with tariffs on steel purchases and not knowing if or when they will end makes planning difficult. We are entering the period when we begin our pricing negotiations for next year and will likely treat the tariffs as if they will be here for the entire year. It’s challenging, but not insurmountable.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
    “Business is positive, new equipment sales and inquiries are strong, and the parts business is strong. Raw material costs, especially steel, appear to be leveling off. Cost of manufactured components has also leveled off. Most suppliers are willing and able to suppress cost increases. Tariff impacts are still a concern.” (Machinery)
    “Business continues to be strong. We anticipate growth in the next few months.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
    “Business conditions are strong. Orders are up. Purchase prices are up. Unemployment is down.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
    “Continued strong demand has most locations in a sold-out market, putting pressure on our facilities to produce and have strong uptime. Purchasing is under pressure to provide critical parts in a market where lead times have increased.” (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
    “Steel tariffs and their threats are putting upward pressure on downstream materials.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)


    [size=5][color=red][b]NIKE = PPPPLLLUUNNNGGGGEEEEEEEE

    Former QS “KAP” who started NFL Kneelers club in 2017 was appointed to be new advertising icon …. and a lot of patriotic fans will probably no longer buy that brand … but some recovery in sell off to only 3% down currently – but wait until that next earnings report as you know there will likely be more negative impacts to sales than organic growth


    [color=teal][size=5][b]In “KAV” nomination — his 2 young daughters & better half are present …. and that makes it especially bad witnessing some of rudest actions in Congress I think I’ve seen to date … I believe CSPAN may offer live & streamed coverage … if Grasley ever got charge of the meeting as each DEM attempted to file motion to delay hearings … and even theprotesters are continuing to come in rounds to purposefully delay meeting) …. They should have cleared ALL out of gallery long ago (including KAV’s family members — as they should not be subjected to this)

    P.S. All these protesters should be glad I’m not in charge of hearings … as there would be quite a bit “TAZER” activity for anyone getting out of order whether in the stands or otherwise — and that’s all I’ll say – LOL 😉 :whistle: :whistle: :whistle: :whistle: :whistle: :whistle:

    Helmholtz Watson

    Helmholtz Watson


    Some Euro alternatives:

    Antonio Pérez Algás @apanalis

    EURUSD `Secular Pattern´ point out A Scenario (UP), and B Scenario w´be a new performance breaking `rules´>


    Florence now a hurricane in the mid-Atlantic

    Florence becomes third hurricane of the Atlantic season

    The NHC announced that Florence has reached hurricane strength in the mid-Atlantic.

    “The steering pattern ahead of Florence is rather complicated and will be evolving over the next few days,” the NHC says.


    Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 GDP Up To 4.7% vs 4.1% prior

    The Atlanta Fed raised its tracking estimate of third quarter GDP to 4.7% from 4.1% on Aug 30.

    “The nowcasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and third-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.0 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, to 3.6 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively, after this morning’s construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management,” the release says.


    [color=red][size=5][b]Very minor losses today in the “symbolic traders come back from summer” Day-after-Labor-day … usually this was strong volume day in past, and as the 1st few days went, so did rest of FALL time frame. NIKE lost 2.6 & that alone shaved off 15 DOW points in this wild wild day in the USA … still we live in greatest nation of all 8)

    Dow 25,952.48 -12.34 -0.05%
    S&P 500 2,896.72 -4.80 -0.17%
    Nasdaq 8,091.25 -18.29 -0.23%
    Gold 1,197.10 -9.60 -0.80%
    Oil 69.37 -0.4 3 -0.62%[/b][/size][/color]

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