Market Weekly: Sep 17 – Sep 23 2018

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    Where have we been and where are we…



    Ha ha fun picture – the second run for these pop stocks – a casino rather than a stock market these days – thank you CI for the update and trading map for the week ahead.


    Ready for another week of chaotic madness 🙂


    IMF says Progress is being made by standby deal talks with Argentina

    Standby deal talks are aimed at strengthening Argentina’s economic policy


    US empire manufacturing weaker than expected at 19 vs 23.0 expected.

    New orders 16.5 vs 17.1 last month
    Employment 13.3 vs 13.1 last month
    prices paid index 46.3 versus 45.2 last month
    factory shipments 14.3 versus 25.7
    6 month business conditions index 30.3 versus 34.8 last month

    Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

    The headline general business conditions index showed ongoing strength, but moved down seven points to 19.0, pointing to a slower pace of growth than last month.

    New orders and shipments grew moderately.
    Delivery times continued to lengthen, and inventories moved higher.
    Labor market indicators pointed to an increase in employment levels and longer workweeks.
    Price indexes were little changed and remained elevated, suggesting ongoing significant increases in both input prices and selling prices.
    Looking ahead, firms remained fairly optimistic about the six-month outlook.


    [size=5][color=red][b]US 10 year yield highest level in 4 months Above 3.01%
    The yield to 3.0162% from 2.9848% on expectations for two more hikes by the Fed in 2018

    99.5% for Sept 18,
    83% for Dec 18
    55% for March 2019


    I believe PIT BOSS is spot on in predicting chaotic & “stormy” week ahead 8)

    [color=red][size=5][b]1. Will FED raise rates right after a major US hurricane?
    2. Thankfully worst of Florence is behind us & we kept power up
    3, The last minute allegations against supreme pick for KAV are troubling (as that should have came out long ago & I see as stalling tactic than meaningful — as it is unsubstantiated & DiFi had this “anonymous tip” since JULY but magically arrived a few days ago)
    4. Tariff wars escalating
    5. PIIGS, Argentina, Venz, and other smaller financial risks
    6. BOND & T-BILL risks “never sleep” based on recent gains
    7. plus the latest 3 am tweets as a “WILD CARD” – lol 😉 :woohoo: [/b][/size][/color]

    [color=teal][size=5][b]FLORENCE RAIN TOTAL 9/14 – 9/17
    from weather station near our home
    FRI 0.71
    SAT 2.19
    SUN 3.27
    MON 2.11 (so far)
    – – – – – – – – – – –
    TOTAL 8.28 [/b][/size][/color]



    10 Years On:



    and keep an EYE on the stormy DAYTON skies … as FLORENCE is a beast in the east :woohoo:

    Helmholtz Watson

    White House Economic Aide Kudlow Speaking to NY Economic Club

    Trump promises are coming true
    Much of what Trump promised is coming true
    Booming economy isn’t a growth spurt. It will be sustained
    Employment problem has been solved.
    US ready to negotiate with China if they are ready for serious and substantive talks
    China’s economic reform efforts are moving in the wrong direction
    Guess is announcement on new tariffs will be soon
    The big story is the changes in policy and the economic boom
    The tariff story may be a good thing. Market is saying trade reforms are necessary. That may be reflected in the stock markets performance.
    Still awaiting serious talks on China.
    Not going to rule out a trade deal with China.
    Would tell Chinese to just say yes on some trade issue of substance, US has put out asks.
    Mnuchin is in touch and negotiating with Chinese officials
    Trump has a grand strategy for trade negotiations, but it is hard to implement their reforms
    not near point where terms will be impacting the economy
    monitoring impact of tariffs on price pressures very carefully


    ^^^^ +1 … and as Larry Kudlow is right … Corporate taxes going from 35% to 23% has created a Michael Jordan #23 type economy (lol) when it comes to future earnings power … and we are moving from an artificially ZIRP flavored one to a REAL one 8)


    [quote=”MoneyNeverSleeps” post=7994]

    Thanks for the laugh, having been an avid coastal fisherman for years when living in Texas.

    Reminds me of a bay I used to fish where the speckled trout got large. We used to joke the reason why the trout were so large in that bay was due to a Uranium holding pond (where all the uranium waste was kept from uranium mines in that area of south Texas) being within 300 yards of that bay, so every time there was a tropical depression all the radioactive uranium material flowed into that bay. The uranium holding pond was above ground and about the size of Olympic swimming pools.


    Regarding the latest round of tariffs on China, the following quote from Reuters is an important factor ….

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