Market Weekly: Oct 7 – Oct 13 2018

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    Where have we been and where are we…

    And keep an eye on HURRICANE MICHAEL later this week :woohoo:

    Helmholtz Watson

    Columbus Day
    Monday, Oct 8

    Monday, October 8, 2018
    Foreign Exchange & Interest Rates Closed.
    Equities, Commodities, Weather & Real Estate – Normal Day


    China back after a week off:

    China A50 down 3.90%
    Shanghai Composite down 2.71%

    via @RANsquawk


    [b]HAPPY COLUMBUS DAY 2018 holiday to all 8)
    [size=4][color=purple][i]While today many groups dis-credit & protest (due to later bad treatment of natives by later colonists)
    And that he wasn’t the first certainly – he did re-discover America after the Vikings were gone
    But he set in motion the birth of a new great land — and ultimately a NEW WORLD
    His brave exploration in 1492 led to birth of our nation — which otherwise would have been decades later
    And am thankful our company celebrates – even though in computer field I’ve got to do a lite duty today[/i][/color] 🙂 [/size][/b]


    Didn’t improve:

    China’s CSI 300 index suffers biggest daily loss since February 2016, closed down by 4.3% while the Shanghai Composite index down by 3.7% in its biggest loss since June this year.

    Of note and concern is this meted despite the PBOC adding more stimulus to the market over the weekend.


    [color=red]European stockmarket closes

    [b][i]the bleeding continues:
    French CAC -1.1%
    German DAX -1.4%
    Italy MIB -2.5% (Lowest since April 2017 but this time its different 🙂 )
    Spain IBEX -0.6%
    UK FTSE 100 -1.1%


    While Bond market was closed, equity markets were open today
    [size=6][b]Dow 26,486.78 39.73 0.15%
    [color=red]S&P 500 2,884.43 -1.14 -0.04%
    Nasdaq 7,735.95 -52.50 -0.67%[/color]
    Gold 1,191.50 -14.10 -1.17%
    Oil 74.22 -0.12 -0.16%[/b][/size]


    Back from the dead today … see what tomorrow brings


    US September NFIB small business optimism index 107.9 vs 108.3 expected, Prior 108.8, the third highest reading in the survey’s 45-year history.

    The September 2018 survey showed:

    Actual capital spending in the past few months rose significantly.
    Average employment change per firm was solid.
    Owners bulked up inventories.
    Compensation increases set a new record.

    “This is the longest streak of small business optimism in history, evidence that tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks are paying off for the economy as a whole,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita D. Duggan. “Our members say that business is booming and prospects continue to look bright.”

    Actual investment spending improved as prospects for the economy remain strong. Sixty percent of owners reported capital outlays, up four points from August. Of those making expenditures, 41 percent reported spending on new equipment (up two points), 26 percent acquired vehicles (up four points), and 16 percent improved or expanded facilities (down two points).



    GROUND ZERO … Michael is intensifying to possible CAT 3 on arrival … Fill up your cars today with GAS, as platforms in Gulf are going offline (and we may see spikes of 10 cents or more per gallon like with Florence) … also get groceries well ahead of storm — as the last minute shoppers will leave cupboards bare :woohoo: Carolinas & Virginia will get soaked but it is a fast mover – so only 1 day of rain, rather than 4 days


    [b][color=teal][size=5]Nikki Haley – one of my favorites in cabinet resigned effective 1/1/2019 …. but she can certainly do other future roles as well — including even becoming #46 in 2024 😉 … she wants to rest for a while with demands of last 6 years in her state & 2 as UN ambassador — where she was outstanding 8)

    This was excellent announcement & press conference to listen to later on U-Tube as she praised 1st lady & Ivanka + Jared …

    During Q&A — Nikki was asked — Do you plan to run for PRESIDENT in 2020 :whistle:

    “I want to assure everyone that I am NOT running for office in 2020, but will be supporting & campaigning for the re-election of our current president ” … OHHH the HUMANITY :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: [/size][/color][/b]


    [size=6][b][color=red]Dow 26,430.57 -56.21 -0.21%
    S&P 500 2,880.34 -4.09 -0.14% [/color]
    Nasdaq 7,738.02 2.07 0.03%
    Gold 1,193.10 4.50 0.38%
    Oil 74.67 0.38 0.51%[/b][/size]


    CAT 4 – 140mph 943mb


    [color=blue][size=5][b]COLD FRONT will intersect with MICHAEL … temps will be 30F lower (with overnight in 40Fs in mtns of SW VA or even lower)
    Major COLD FRONT will keep eyewall away in SW VA, although heavy rain/flooding & some windiness is projected as we in path of overall storm … certainly remembering family/friends in path of storm for safekeeping


    Mortgage applications back in their decreasing trend for the week ending on October 5, 2018

    Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

    Mortgage Composite index -2% from the previous week.
    Refinance Index -3% from the previous week
    Purchase Index – 1% from last week but is still 2% higher than the same week in 2017
    Seasonally adjusted Purchase Index -1% from one week prior.

    The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 39% of total applications, down from 39.4% the week before.
    The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 7.3% of total applications.
    The Federal Housing Administration share of mortgage apps inched up from last week’s 10.2% to 10.5%
    Veterans Affairs’ share of applications held steady at 10% from last week.
    The Department of Agriculture share of total applications increased to 0.8% from 0.7% the week before.

    The MBA reported mortgage interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) rose to its highest level since February 2011 moving to 5.05% from 4.96% the previous week.

    The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $453,100) climbed to its highest level since July 2011, increasing from 4.93% last week to 4.99% this week.

    The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to its highest level since April 2011, rising from 4.95% last week to 4.98% this week.
    The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to its highest level since April 2010, climbing from 4.39% to 4.44% this week.
    The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs reached its highest level in series history at 4.29% this week, up from 4.24% last week.

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