Market Weekly: Oct 19 – Oct 26 2018

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 44 total)
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    Where have we been and where are we...



    [size=6]Brrrrrrrrr …. we have went below freezing 2X so far … covering hot peppers tonight as we will be in upper 20Fs … the SUMMER of 2018 is over … DALLAS v. WASHINGTON game is one the way … thankful for the great life we have in SW VA [/size”> 😉 8)


    Stay warm CI – that got cold quickly! Thank you for the great insight, earnings heating up at a torrid pace – a lot of nervous tech stockholders I suspect (and Italian bond holders)


    [b]Chicago Fed national activity index for September 0.17 less than 0.22 expected, prior revised higher to 0.27 from 0.18

    Three-month moving average 0.21 in September from 0.27 in August

    – 46 of 85 individual indicators make positive contributions
    – 39 indicators negative
    – Reading below 0 indicates below trend growth in national economy


    That China bump didn’t last long:

    European stockmarket closes

    France CAC -0.5%
    Germany DAX -0.2%
    Italy FTSE MIB -0.6%
    Portugal PSI 20 -0.14%
    Spain Ibex -0.9%


    [size=6][b][color=red]Dow 25,317.41 -126.93 -0.50%
    S&P 500 2,755.88 -11.90 -0.43%[/color]
    Nasdaq 7,468.63 19.60 0.26%
    Gold 1,225.10 0.50 0.04%
    Oil 69.25 0.13 0.19%[/b][/size]


    [size=6][color=red][b]PPPLLLUUUNNNGGGGEEEE …
    DOW FUTURES OFF NEAR 400 POINTS (1.5%)[/b][/color][/size]


    [b]Philadelphia Fed October non-mfg business activity index 37.6 v 37.4 Prior
    wages and benefits cost index fell to 41.9 from 48.1 in September
    new orders index 7.8 in October versus 26.7 in September
    full-time employment index 16.6 in October versus 36.7 in September
    prices paid 15.0 versus 26.3 in September
    prices received 18.6 versus 24.3 in September
    average workweek 25.5 versus 25.1 September
    nonmanufacturing firm–level business activity index 37.2 in October versus 46.8 in September


    [b]Richmond Fed manufacturing index 15 versus 24 expectations, Prior 29

    capacity utilization 20 versus 20
    manufacturing shipments 7 versus 33 in September
    services revenue index -1 versus +18 September
    new orders 20 versus 34
    employment 19 versus 16
    backlog orders 13 verses 20

    vendor lead time 23 versus 32
    average workweek 16 verses 19
    wages 28 versus 33
    prices paid +5.68% from prior month
    prices received +2.84% from prior month


    EU consumer confidence -2.7 versus -3.2 expectations Prior month -2.9 rev to -2.8


    [size=6][b][color=red]Dow 25,191.43 -125.98 -0.50%
    S&P 500 2,740.69 -15.19 -0.55%
    Nasdaq 7,437.54 -31.09 -0.42%[/color]
    Gold 1,233.10 8.50 0.69%
    Oil 66.29 -3.07 -4.43%[/b][/size]

    Thank God for the 4pm bell as some WALL STREET BEEF was ROASTING 😉 :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:


    [size=5][color=red][b]PPPLLLUUNNGGGEEEEE … BOMB threats emerging everywhere (and not sure if mid-term election ploy or the real thing – but bad all the way around) … DOW falling & down 200 points … I’m praying for our nation & that those who are sending are quickly caught …. a rare time I agree with CNN as it is an ACT OF TERROR …


    Markit :

    US manufacturing PMI for Oct (P) 55.9 vs 55.3 exp. Prior 55.6 highest reading since May 2018

    US Services PMI 54.7 versus 54.0 expected. Prior 53.5. Highest reading since December 2017

    Composite index 54.8 versus 53.9 Prior. Highest reading since May 2018


    Federal Housing Finance Agency August House Price Index

    Later in the day we got more housing data firstly the Federal housing finance agency released its August house price index, which is old data given the rate rises since but the most cuurent apparently. The index was 0.3% as expected. The prior month was revised higher to 0.4% from 0.2%. From August 2017 to August 2018, house prices were up 6.1 percent.

    For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from July 2018 to August 2018 ranged from -0.7 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +0.8 percent in the Pacific division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +4.0 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +8.4 percent in the Mountain division.

    New Home Sales for September

    Today we also saw September new home sales came in much weaker than expected at 553K way under the 625k expected. Even worse the prior month was revised down to 585K from the 629K previously released.

    These are the lowest levels seen since December 2016. Interest rates are biting as are other costs like gasoline. Not a surprise as this was indicated by the different home builders earnings reports and guidances. This highlights the divergence between central bankers, reality and main street.
    Single-family home sales fell -5.5%
    Medium sales price decreased 3.5% year on year to $320,000
    Average selling price at $377,200
    Supply of homes a current sales rate rose to 7.1 months. The highest since March 2011 up from 6.5 months in August.

    From the TradersCommunity Research Desk


    Fed’ beige book for October 2018

    Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond with data collected on or before October 15, 2018

    Economic activity expanded with growth modest to moderate
    Manufacturing cited rising costs, trade uncertainty
    Labor shortages broadly noted and linked to wage increases
    Retailers/wholesalers worried by higher costs due to tariffs
    Consumer prices rose at modest to moderate pace
    Manufacturers raised prices due to raw materials tariffs
    Tourism up except Carolinas, due to hurricane Florence
    Firms say modest to moderate wage growth over next 6 months

    Several Fed districts said firms faced rising materials and shipping costs as well as uncertainties over trade and/or difficulties finding qualified workers
    employers across the nation cited shortages of highly skilled engineers, finance and sales professionals and construction and manufacturing workers

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