Market Weekly: May 3- May 9 2020

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    [size=4][color=purple][i][b]Where have we been and where are we …as we all await gradual re-openings 8)
    Many virus “rebels” are growing impatient & as some state GOVT are too strict on lockdowns :ohmy:
    and some are even “political” on what is essential v. non-essential :pinch:
    as COVID-19 is not over yet — even with some states starting to improve :whistle:

    OIL, stocks, bonds, etc. all depend on getting back to work safely & smoothly & effectively
    rather than too quickly — new safety measures make things better for future diseases also 8)[/b][/i][/color][/size]


    An inspirational song of worship on this beautiful Sunday 8)


    [size=5][color=teal][b]Good MONDAY morning to all & HAPPY STAR WARS day 8)
    If only a “cautious daughter” and her dad had a mask of that (or the deer) 😆

    DOW futures are down about -280
    as China concerns about virus origin & “cover up in early days” are discussed
    and daily USA deaths are still high in total (+2500 per day)
    Still all we can do is hang in there patiently — and wait for better days 8)[/b][/color][/size]


    [size=6][color=limegreen][b]Dow 23,749.76 26.07 0.11%
    S&P 500 2,842.74 12.03 0.42%
    Nasdaq 8,710.71 105.77 1.23%
    GlobalDow 2,571.40 -35.51 -1.36%
    Gold 1,712.00 11.10 0.65%
    Oil 21.22 1.44 7.28%[/b][/color] [/size]

    May the 4th be with us 🙂

    Helmholtz Watson

    [color=red][size=5][b]COVID-19 impact drives record decline in business activity

    US Markit services PMI for April (F) 26.7 v 27.0 estimate

    The seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit US Services Business Activity Index registered 26.7 in April, down notably from 39.8 in March and fractionally lower than the previously published ‘flash’ figure of 27.0.

    Services index[/b]

    Markit services PMI for April (F) comes in at 26.7 versus 27.0 estimate
    Composite PMI for April final 27.0 versus 27.4 previously reported
    The services PMI is the lowest reading since the series began
    3rd consecutive month contractions
    Services PMI fell to 35.6 versus 47.5 in March. Lowest reading ever
    Prices charged is also at the lowest reading ever
    For the composite index, new orders fell to 26.4 versus 40.9 in March (lowest reading ever)
    Composite index Employment falls versus the prior month and reached the lowest reading since the series began.

    Key findings

    The COVID-19 outbreak escalated and emergency public health measures intensified.
    The rate of contraction accelerated to the fastest on record as client demand slumped and many businesses closed temporarily.
    New order inflows fell significantly as customers postponed or cancelled orders amid ongoing global lockdowns.
    Subsequently, expectations for the year ahead sank to their most pessimistic in the series history.
    Uncertainty and a further reduction in confidence led to the steepest decrease in workforce numbers on record.In an effort to retain clients, firms passed lower costs on to clients through the fastest decrease in output charges in the series history.

    Efforts to adhere to social distancing and stay-at-home measures resulted in many services firms struggling to remain open, with client demand also dropping significantly.The escalation of emergency public health procedures resulted in the cancellation and postponement of customer orders, with new business contracting at the most severe rate since 2009

    Firms that rely on face-to-face custom generally stated they were working at reduced capacity or had closed temporarily. Unprecedented contractions in output, new business and employmentBusiness expectations turn pessimistic Output charges fall at sharpest rate on recordData were collected 7-29 April 2020I

    HS Markit U.S. Composite PMI™Foreign client demand also tumbled due to the global nature of lockdown measures and travel restrictions, and the intensification of the outbreak in key export destinations.

    The drop in new business from abroad far outpaced any fall seen in the series history so far.
    Reflecting a slump in new business, firms reduced their workforce numbers in April.
    The fall was the most marked in the series history and largely stemmed from excess capacity at service providers. Although many stated that lay-offs had been made, others noted that they had furloughed workers in the hope that demand would pick-up after the lockdown eased.
    Excess capacity also stemmed from the steepest decline in outstanding business on record. Expectations towards business activity over the coming 12 months sank in April, with firms recording the first instance of pessimism in the outlook since the series began.
    Sentiment tumbled to a series low as ongoing uncertainty as to when the lockdown will end, and fears surrounding the timespan of any recovery weighed on confidence.At the same time, service providers registered the fastest fall in cost burdens on record.
    The decline in input prices partially stemmed from lower wage costs. In an effort to retain clients and kick-start sales, companies sought to pass on reduced input costs to customers through the sharpest fall in average prices charged in the series history.

    Helmholtz Watson

    ISM non-manufacturing PMI for April 41.8 versus 37.9 estimate, 52.5 last month

    The reading is the lowest level since April 2009.2008 ISM non manufacturing all time low was 37.8

    Employment 30.0 versus 47.0 last month
    new orders 32.9 versus 52.9 last month
    prices paid 55.1 versus 50.0 last month
    business activity 26.0 versus 48.0 last month
    supplier deliveries 78.3 versus 62.1 last month
    inventory change 46.9 versus 41.5 last month
    inventory sentiment 62.6 versus 47.8 last month
    new export orders 36.3 versus 45.9 last month
    imports 49.3 versus 40.2 last month


    Black Gold!

    WTI crude oil futures up over 20.4% today

    June WTI crude oil futures are up $4.16 at $24.54. The high price $24.63.

    July contract higher up $3.50 or 15.36% at $26.30.

    The spread between the two contracts is narrowing. It currently it is around $1.80.

    The 61.8% retracement of the move down from January 2020 high to April low. That level comes in at $25.17. Just above that it is the 50 day moving average at $25.51.


    Disney Reports Today:

    Ahead of today’s report Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global, “Seventy percent of Disney’s revenues come from just parks and media and if you have lower ad spending budgets for the next 18 to 24 months, and you have a very slow reopening of the parks, then that is definitely going to hurt Disney,” Sanchez said during the same segment. “If we see a resurgence or any kind of second wave, then that could hit parks as well. … There is reason for caution.”


    [quote=”MoneyNeverSleeps” post=13434]Disney Reports Today:

    Ahead of today’s report Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global, “Seventy percent of Disney’s revenues come from just parks and media and if you have lower ad spending budgets for the next 18 to 24 months, and you have a very slow reopening of the parks, then that is definitely going to hurt Disney,” Sanchez said during the same segment. “If we see a resurgence or any kind of second wave, then that could hit parks as well. … There is reason for caution.”[/quote]

    Disney is expected to post 91 cents in adjusted profit for its fiscal second quarter ended in March, according to FactSet, down from $1.61 a year earlier. This is even as sales are projected to rise by 21%.


    [size=5][color=teal][b][i]MAY 5 = Happy Cinco de Mayo
    (Mexico victory over French in 1862)[/i][/b][/color][/size]


    [color=limegreen][size=6][b]Dow 23,883.09 133.33 0.56%
    S&P 500 2,868.44 25.70 0.90%
    Nasdaq 8,809.12 98.41 1.13%
    GlobalDow 2,594.29 23.55 0.92%
    Gold 1,717.30 4.00 0.23%
    Oil 24.57 4.18 20.50%[/b][/size][/color]

    [size=5][i]”After Dark” is one of best all time Mexican rock songs
    and may God bless our neighbors south of border as they celebrate heritage 8)[/i][/size]


    [size=5][i]Dedicated to all of us making sacrifice to shelter-in-place
    & doing right things to HELP OTHERS — even though like Elsa the lion
    we are BORN FREE as my favorite childhood movie notes 8)[/i][/size]


    [color=purple][i][size=4][b]The super strict & partisan governor restrictions made me think of BORN FREE – lol
    Like Michigan not being able to buy seeds & almost civil war ready to break out in being TOO STRICT
    In Virginia we are “essentials only” lock-down until June 10 — and battery on Avalon has gone dead – lol
    Arresting folks for not wearing masks & locking wide-open spaces like parks is going too far … and list goes on & on

    This DALLAS story is sad also — as I see both sides — Judge is wrong to JAIL someone 7 days to set example
    Fining someone $7,000 + 7 days in JAIL 👿 for trying to open up safely in spite of law & warnings is too harsh
    The JAIL term bothered me most & Dallas salon owner was in wrong & given multiple chances
    Judge was not going to JAIL — but only if she admitted wrong, but because she disagreed JAIL was end result.

    Still, she’s got “go fund me” & tons of popularity as even Rush is hitting this hard — she’ll do well in end 😉 :whistle:
    and this story is going viral (pun intended) on right wing talk shows (as judge was big supporter of #44)
    Meanwhile true criminals are released from out of crowded jails & throwing disobedient good citizen behind bars
    Dallas jail has over 200 COVID-19 cases & if salon owner got infected — what an injustice[/b][/size][/i][/color]


    [color=green][b]and getting back to WALL STREET — a fairly stable session so far (which is indeed rare)
    OIL is more stable & “trillions in $$$ printed out of thin air” are making positive difference
    the great people of USA will come thru — as Bambi & I have “+” outlook 😆

    [color=limegreen][size=5][i]and to think positively for day ahead below are some good tunes
    by my favorite Celtic hammer dulcimer artist of all time
    as she & her husband “jam” on BRETON DANCE and STAR OF MUNSTER
    “Hills of Erin” album was always top five in CD case — 3 examples below are excellent [/i][/size][/color] 8)


    [size=5][b][color=red]Dow 23,664.64 -218.45 -0.91%
    S&P 500 2,848.42 -20.02 -0.70% [/color]
    Nasdaq 8,854.39 45.27 0.51%
    GlobalDow 2,571.76 -22.56 -0.87%
    Gold 1,686.10 -24.50 -1.43%
    Oil 24.09 -0.47 -1.91% [/b][/size]


    [color=teal][size=5][b]BBBRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:
    POLAR VORTEX heading to USA with possible FROST & even light SNOW
    which is rare in SW Virginia for MAY … most of garden will be okay even a few tomato plants 8)[/b][/size][/color]

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