Market Weekly: Mar 23 – Mar 29 2019

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 35 total)
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    [color=purple][size=5][i]Where have we been and where are we now

    SPRING has arrived in SW VA & just got back from services
    Afternoon hike with camera in hand is underway
    Peach trees will be in bloom soon as we near 65F today 8)[/i][/size][/color]



    Have a great week all – apparently there was a little report that dropped on the weekend … Oh the humanity as CI would say //////


    German Ifo business climate index for Germany’s manufacturing sector hits three-year low in March

    The overall business climate actually improved BUT manufacturing remains weak with the 6.6 reading the weakest since February 2016. The services sector showed a rebound from 21.3 in February to 26.0 in March.

    The trade and construction sector also posted modest rebounds but the details of the report here basically shows the exact same sentiment that we saw in the PMI prints Friday.

    Ifo notes that the expectations component of the manufacturing sector fell to its lowest level since November 2012. With demand waning, it highlights that businesses aren’t expecting things to get better in the coming months either.

    Business Confidence in Germany averaged 98.13 Index Points from 1991 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 109.80 Index Points in January of 1991 and a record low of 79.70 Index Points in March of 2009.


    Chicago Fed February National Activity index -0.29 vs -0.43 prior

    Prior CFNAI -0.43 (revised to -0.25)

    Employment–0.10, down from +0.07 in January;
    Personal consumption and housing category -0.06 from -0.03.
    Production-related indicators moved up to -0.16 in February from -0.29 in January
    Sales, orders, and inventories +0.03, up slightly from +0.01 previous.

    Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.78 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.25 in December of 1974.


    [size=5][b]Dallas Fed Manufacturing index +8.3 vs +9.0 expected
    Prior +13.1

    The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, held fairly steady at 11.5, indicating output growth continued at about the same pace as last month.

    Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested continued expansion in March, although demand growth slowed.
    The new orders index fell from 6.9 to 2.4, and the growth rate of orders index slipped into negative territory for the first time since December 2016. The shipments index declined five points to 5.8, while the capacity utilization index moved up four points to 10.9.

    Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to improve in March, although outlooks were less optimistic than in February.
    The general business activity index remained positive but fell five points to 8.3.
    Similarly, the company outlook index stayed in positive territory but fell from 14.2 to 6.0.
    The index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks was largely unchanged at a 10-month low of 3.4.

    Labor market measures suggested continued employment growth and longer workweeks in March. The employment index held steady at 13.1, a reading well above average.

    Twenty-two percent of firms noted net hiring, compared with 9 percent noting net layoffs.
    The hours worked index came in at 4.6, up slightly from February.

    Upward pressure on prices and wages continued in March. The raw materials and finished goods prices indexes held fairly steady at 20.4 and 6.9, respectively. Twenty-seven percent of firms noted higher input costs this month—about twice the share noting higher selling prices. The wages and benefits index remained elevated at 30.1.

    Expectations regarding future business conditions remained positive in March, although the indexes showed mixed movements. The index of future general business activity inched up two points to 19.7, while the index of future company outlook fell nine points to 17.5. Most other indexes for future manufacturing activity pushed further into positive territory this month.

    Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 3.31 Index Points from 2004 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 47.10 Index Points in June of 2004 and a record low of -60.10 Index Points in February of 2009.


    [color=purple][size=5][i]BOND prices hint at possible recession on technical measures
    when SHORT TERM rates are higher than LONG TERM[/i][/size][/color]

    [size=6][b]Dow 25,516.83 14.51 0.06%
    [color=red]S&P 500 2,798.36 -2.35 -0.08%
    Nasdaq 7,637.54 -5.13 -0.07% [/color]
    Gold 1,322.10 9.80 0.75%
    Oil 58.99 -0.05 -0.08% [/b][/size]

    Helmholtz Watson

    Brexit Amendment A Passed UK House of Commons Vote

    Amendment A means MPs can introduce alternatives to PM May’s Brexit plan for consideration
    meaning its not only the government that can introduce legislation for consideration on Brexit now opening up potentially all alternatives incl:

    Second referendum
    Stay in the customs union
    Cancel Brexit

    Nearly three years after the 2016 EU membership referendum and four days before Britain was supposed to leave the bloc, it was still unclear how, when or if Brexit would take place, with parliament and the nation still bitterly divided.

    To get her deal passed, May must win over at least 75 MPs who voted against her on March 12 – dozens of rebels in her Conservative Party, some opposition Labour Party MPs and the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up her minority government but has voted against the deal so far.

    “Why would the prime minister ever expect us to give support to an agreement which is based on a lie?” DUP Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson told BBC television.


    [color=purple][size=5][i]OOOOHHHHHH THE HUMANITY :ohmy:
    With cries throughout the land to “release the report” :unsure:
    And not just the report — but the “FULL” REPORT – lol :woohoo:
    Maybe the herd & I are among the few that have better things to do & look forward to :whistle:
    As we’re just glad this is over — at least for now 8)[/i][/size][/color]


    US February housing starts 1162K vs 1210K expected
    Prior 1230K (revised to 1273K)

    Starts -8.7% vs -1.6% exp


    Building permits 1296K vs 1305K exp
    Prior 1345K (revised to 1317K)

    Permits -1.6% vs -0.9% exp


    Carnival Corp. CCL, Down 7.4% after weak earnings forecast.

    Net income totaled $336 million, or 48 cents per share, down from $391 million, or 54 cents per share, last year. Adjusted EPS was 49 cents, ahead of the 44-cent FactSet consensus. Total revenue was $4.67 billion, up from $4.23 billion last year and ahead of the $4.31 billion.

    Revenue growth and better onboard spending were offset by the timing of cost increases, fuel prices and currency impact, according to Chief Executive Arnold Donald.

    For the second quarter, Carnival expects adjusted EPS in the range of 56 cents to 60 cents, with fuel prices and currency exchange rates bringing down earnings by 8 cents per share year-over-year. The FactSet consensus is 72 cents. For the full year, Carnival expects adjusted EPS in the range of $4.35 to $4.55. The FactSet estimate is for $4.76.


    Red Hat Linux Software Earnings Miss Head of IBM Aquisition

    Open source Linux software provider Red Hat, who will be acquired by IBM reported earnings after the close Monday, missing on earnings and on revenue. $RHT new products OpenShift and OpenStack have been ramping up revenue from hybrid cloud computing.

    Full Report:


    Canada PM Trudeau: Canada is very concerned about China canola dispute … this has gone for a while and Canola being a major Canadian export with China has stopped buying it.

    Trudeau said he’s considering sending a delegation to China regarding the oilseed. Hardly the outrage one would suspect from such a deliberate Chinese policy.


    DOJ agrees with Texas district court that ACA is unconstitutional sending health insurance stocks lower

    The Justice Department said it stood with a Texas district court’s December ruling that the Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional, essentially agreeing that the entire law should be struck down.

    Shares of companies with heavier exposure to Medicaid were in the lead, with Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH shares falling 6.6%, Centene Corporation CNC shares falling 2% and WellCare Health Plans Inc. WCG shares slipping 1.8%.

    Shares of more diversified, large-cap companies like UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH, -0.19% Cigna Corporation CI, -0.87% Humana Inc. HUM, -1.49% and Anthem Inc. ANTM, -1.26% fell also.

    “The space could see continued weakness on the back of the DOJ brief,” Jefferies health-care trader Jared Holz told MarketWatch in an email. He said he thinks an actual law change would be unlikely, since that would require support from both the House and the Senate. “The greater significance here near-term could be additional headline risk adding to an already tenuous ground for insurers,” he said.

    The ruling was a departure for the Justice Department, which had previously sought to cut only protections for pre-existing conditions.


    Now 20 + off the high —– $ES_F continues to give back after those housing reports and $KBH earnings read like a blue movie this could get really ugly

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