Market Weekly: Mar 10 – Mar 16 2019

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 52 total)
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    Where have we been and where are we…


    REMINDER of weekend Daylight SavingsTime change — And to SPRING FORWARD one hour ahead … (great time to check home smoke detector batteries also)…. looking forward to extra hour of daylight after I complete work each day 🙂 SPRING is on it’s way for the herd and me — after a tough winter 8)


    Exactly – the ECB finally admitted it’s folly, when will the Fed?


    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will appear on Sunday’s episode of CBS “60 Minutes” for an interview on interest rates, the outlook for the U.S. economy and financial system cybersecurity risks

    Powell was interviewed by Scott Pelley in Washington, D.C., this week, CBS said, and will appear beside his predecessors, former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

    Powell has led the central bank for just more than a year and has faced intense criticism from President Trump


    [size=5][color=green][i]GOOD MONDAY morning to all 8)
    The deer, songbirds, and baby frogs are celebrating improved weather
    MARKETS are in POSITIVE territory for most part

    BOEING stocks are DOWN about 8%
    Tanking after another major plane crash of a new 737 model this weekend
    (and share sympathies & prayers regarding this tragic accident)[/i][/color][/size]


    US January Advance Retail Sales advance 0.2% vs 0.0% estimate
    Prior month data revised lower to -1.6% from -1.2%.

    Sales rebounded for sporting goods, musical instruments and books.

    Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services retail sales went up 1.1 percent in January after a downwardly revised 2.3 percent fall in December.

    Year-on-year, retail trade grew 2.3 percent. Retail

    Sales MoM in the United States averaged 0.35 percent from 1992 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6.70 percent in October of 2001 and a record low of -3.90 percent in November of 2008.

    Ex auto 0.9%. versus 0.3% expected. Prior month revised to -2.1% versus -1.8%

    Ex auto and gas, 1.2% versus 0.6% estimate. Prior month revised to -1.6% versus -1.4%

    Control Group, 1.1% versus 0.6% estimate. Prior month revised to -2.3% versus -1.7%


    US Dec business inventories +0.6 as expected
    Prior month was -0.1%.

    Business sales -1.0% versus November -0.6%
    December inventory/sales ratio 1.38 months versus November 1.36 months
    inventories ex-autos and revise that +1.0%


    Atlanta Fed Cuts Q1 GDPNow 0.2% versus 0.5% last

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.2 percent on March 11, down from 0.5 percent on March 8. After this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 1.5 percent to 1.0 percent.


    US Auctioned $38Billion 3 year notes at 2.443%

    WI at 2.444%.
    Bid to cover 2.56X v 2.55 last.
    Directs 9.4% v 18.5% last, lowest supply since November
    Indirects 43.9% v 44.3% last
    Primary dealers 41.06%. largest share since November


    European Closes

    France: CAC 40 5265.96 -1.96 -0.04%
    Germany: DAX 11543.48 25.68 0.22%
    [color=red]Italy: FTSE MIB 20638.22 -59.34 -0.29%
    Spain: IBEX 35 9171.90 -78.00 -0.84%
    UK: FTSE 100 7130.62 -26.93 -0.38% [/color]


    [color=limegreen][size=5][b]SUPER GREEN – LET’S GET READY FOR ST. PATRICKS DAY 8)
    and as music lover — Below are some of greatest Celtic artists of all time 🙂

    Dow 25,650.88 177.65 0.70%
    S&P 500 2,783.30 34.37 1.25%
    Nasdaq 7,558.06 136.60 1.84%
    GlobalDow 2,976.77 36.12 1.23%
    Gold 1,293.60 -5.70 -0.44%
    Oil 56.84 0.77 1.37%[/b][/size][/color]


    UK PM May fails to win over main Brexit faction in her Conservative Party hours before the vote in parliament.

    The vote follows May’s trip to Strasbourg on Monday to agree legally binding assurances with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

    Attorney General Geoffrey Cox said in a written opinion the assurances left the legal risk of the United Kingdom being locked in the bloc’s orbit after Brexit, the most controversial issue for Brexit-supporting lawmakers.

    “The legal risk remains unchanged,” Cox said. “However, the matter of law affecting withdrawal can only inform what is essentially a political decision that each of us must make.”

    Sterling fell as much as 2 cents on Cox’s advice, which was seen as reducing the chance that May’s deal will be approved by parliament.

    British lawmakers, who on Jan. 15 voted 432-202 against May’s deal, will vote at 1900 GMT. The main pro-Brexit faction in May’s party, the European Research Group, said it did not recommend voting for her deal.

    The main sticking point is the so-called Irish border backstop, an insurance policy aimed at avoiding controls on the border between the British province of Northern Ireland and EU-member Ireland after Brexit.

    Brexit-supporting lawmakers expressed suspicion at the haste of May’s last-minute assurances and suggested a delay to allow sufficient analysis of them and Cox’s advice.

    “I am very, very suspicious and concerned about the time scale,” Conservative lawmaker Andrew Bridgen said. The ink isn’t even dry on the agreement… And we’ve got to vote on it today.”

    Nigel Dodds, the parliamentary leader of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up May’s minority government, said the assurances would still trap the United Kingdom in the EU’s orbit.

    If lawmakers vote down May’s deal again, they will be given a vote on Wednesday on leaving without a deal, and if they turn down that option they will vote on Thursday on delaying Brexit.

    May had announced three documents – a joint instrument, a joint statement and a unilateral declaration – which she said were aimed at addressing the Irish backstop, the most contentious part of the divorce deal she agreed with the EU in November.

    She said the assurances created an arbitration channel for any disputes on the backstop, “entrenches in legally-binding form” existing commitments that it will be temporary and binds the UK and EU to starting work on replacing the backstop with other arrangements by December 2020.

    In essence, the assurances give the United Kingdom a possible path out of the backstop through arbitration and underscore the EU’s repeated pledges that it does not want to trap the United Kingdom in the backstop.

    The European Research Group said the verdict of its ‘Star Chamber’ set up to analyse the assurances was that they did not deliver legally binding changes to the Brexit deal or the Irish backstop and did not provide an exit mechanism over which Britain had control.

    “In the light of our own legal analysis and others we do not recommend accepting the government’s motion today,” William Cash, a senior pro-Brexit Conservative Party lawmaker said.

    After two-and-a-half years of haggling since the 2016 Brexit referendum, Juncker cautioned this was Britain’s last chance. “It is this deal or Brexit might not happen at all,” he said.

    The United Kingdom’s labyrinthine crisis over EU membership is approaching its finale with an array of possible outcomes, including a delay, a last-minute deal, a no-deal Brexit, a snap election or even another referendum.

    Brexit will pitch the world’s fifth largest economy into the unknown and many fear it will divide the West as it grapples with both the unconventional U.S. presidency of Donald Trump and growing assertiveness from Russia and China.

    Supporters of Brexit say while the divorce might bring some short-term instability, in the longer term it will allow the United Kingdom to thrive and also enable deeper EU integration without such a powerful reluctant member.

    May, an initial opponent of Brexit who won the top job in the chaos following the 2016 referendum, has repeatedly warned that if lawmakers reject her deal then Brexit could be thwarted.

    Via Reuters


    US Trade Rep Lighthizer on steel and aluminum tariffs

    Lighithizer said he sees a possible solution on 232 security tariffs on Mexico and Canada tariffs and looking for a ‘sweet spot’ that will remove them but still protect US industry.

    “my view is that we have to have a solution with Canada and Mexico that protects the president’s basic program” – finding “a sweet spot.”


    BREXIT, BOEING, and other concerns kept BULLS activity down some today
    [size=6][b]Dow 25,554.66 -96.22 -0.38%
    [color=green]S&P 500 2,791.52 8.22 0.30%
    Nasdaq 7,591.03 32.97 0.44%[/color]
    Gold 1,300.90 2.80 0.22%
    Oil 57.14 0.27 0.47%[/b][/size]


    Graphic on Brexit Outcomes after May lost as expected:


    US MBA mortgage applications w/e. 8 March +2.3% vs -2.5% prior
    Prior -2.5%

    Purchase index 250.8 vs 240.5 prior
    Market index 384.0 vs 375.3 prior
    Refinancing index 1,108.3 vs 1,110.9 prior
    30-year mortgage rate 4.64% vs 4.67% prior

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