Market Weekly: June 28 – July 5 2020

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  • #24005

    [color=purple][i][b]Where have we been and where are we .. wishing all a good & safe week
    in SW Virginia — the deer & new fawns abound & great gardening year so far
    as I’ve researched viruses & audited college level courses — COVID-19 is serious
    and better half & me wear masks 100% of time & encourage best practices to all :).
    Hopeful for ECONOMIC bounce-back in 2nd half of 2020 8)[/b][/i][/color]

    [article]2114[/article]

    #45 would love to return us to glory days of 1950s but we’ve went to far

    #24011
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    [size=5][b]US May pending home sales -10.4% y/y v -22.0% expected
    Prior -34.6%[/b][/size]

    Sales up 44.3% in the month vs +18.0% expected
    Prior m/m reading was -34.6%

    Sales continued to fall in the Northeast (-33.2 percent), the West (-2.5 percent) and the Midwest (-1.4 percent) but rose in the South (1.9 percent).

    [img size=500 ]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbsBV67WAAAoonl.png
    [/img]

    On a monthly basis, pending home sales surged 44.3 percent, the biggest rise ever and following a record 21.8 percent fall in April.

    Figures beat market forecasts of an 18.9% rise as every major region recorded an increase in month-over-month pending home sales transactions.

    “The outlook has significantly improved, as new home sales are expected to be higher this year than last, and annual existing-home sales are now projected to be down by less than 10 percent – even after missing the spring buying season due to the pandemic lockdown,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist said.

    #24017

    [color=limegreen][size=5][b]Dow 25,595.80 580.25 2.32%
    S&P 500 3,053.24 44.19 1.47%
    Nasdaq 9,874.15 116.93 1.20%
    GlobalDow 2,796.59 -2.47 -0.09%
    Gold 1,782.20 1.00 0.06%
    Oil 39.12 -0.58[/b][/size][/color]

    [size=5][i]These great gains don’t “come easy”
    given our end of world daily news – lol[/i][/size]

    #24022
    Helmholtz Watson
    Participant

    [size=5]US Chicago June PMI 36.6 misses (est 45.0; prev 32.3)[/size”>

    #24029

    [color=green][size=5][b]Dow 25,812.88 217.08 0.85%
    S&P 500 3,100.29 47.05 1.54%
    Nasdaq 10,058.77 184.61 1.87%
    GlobalDow 2,821.05 21.99 0.79%
    Gold 1,798.30 17.10 0.96%
    Oil 39.68 -0.02 -0.05%[/b][/size][/color]

    [size=5][color=red][i]WOW – scientists share early warning from China of NEW Swine FLU variant
    but it is way too early to know if this will be in 2021 mix as early article below shares[/i][/color]
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/new-strain-of-flu-in-china-has-pandemic-potential-scientists-warns.html[/size]

    Still we all need be CAUTIOUS – lol :ohmy:

    #24031
    ClemSnide
    Participant

    US coronavirus cases rose by over 40,000 for a 5th time in past 6 days

    During the US on Tuesday infectious-disease expert Anthony Fauci said the US is “going in the wrong direction” in its effort to contain the coronavirus

    daily case counts could more than double if behaviors don’t change
    indoor gatherings, particularly bars a major concern

    Fauci speaking with a Senate panel.

    Note Idaho saw its largest ever increase in cases on Tuesday

    #24032
    ClemSnide
    Participant

    Goldman Sachs says a national US mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns

    Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, said his team investigated the link between face masks and Covid-19 health and economic outcomes.

    GS says lockdowns would subtract nearly 5% from GDP. But, wearing masks could substitute.

    GS say:

    a national mask mandate could cut the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1.0pp to 0.6%
    face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP

    “We start by showing that a national mandate would likely increase face mask usage meaningfully, especially in states such as Florida and Texas where masks remain largely voluntary to date,” the Goldman researchers write in their 11-page report.

    Goldman said a national mask mandate could raise the percentage of people who wear masks by 15 percentage points and cut the daily growth rate of cases by 1.0 percentage point to 0.6%.

    “We find that face masks are associated with significantly better coronavirus outcomes,” Hatzius wrote in a note to clients. “Our baseline estimate is that a national mandate could raise the percentage of people who wear masks by 15 [percentage points] and cut the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1.0 [percentage point] to 0.6%.”

    “These calculations imply that a face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP,” the economist added.

    By Goldman’s estimates, lockdown efforts — both official government restrictions and actual social distancing — earlier this year subtracted 17% from U.S. GDP between January and April. Other countries with even more aggressive restrictions saw even larger economic effects.

    Using those results and a target to reduce daily growth rate by 1 percentage point, Goldman Sachs found that a face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP.

    “If a face mask mandate meaningfully lowers coronavirus infections, it could be valuable not only from a public health perspective but also from an economic perspective because it could substitute for renewed lockdowns that would otherwise hit GDP,” Hatzius wrote.

    #24034
    ClemSnide
    Participant

    UK says believe there is a free-trade agreement to be reached with EU but prepared for either eventuality

    – We will continue to have a constructive relationship with Chinese firms working and investing in UK #Brexit #EURGBP via Johnson spokesperson

    #24035
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Markit June manufacturing PMI (F) 49.8 v. 49.6 prelim

    – Contraction in output slows as new orders stabilise
    – First increase in selling prices since February, albeit only fractional
    – Job losses ease amid renewed optimism

    #24036
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    [b]ISM June manufacturing index 52.6 v 49.8 estimate[/b]
    Prior month 43.1

    Employment index 42.1 v 32.1 last month
    new orders index 56.4 v. 51.9 estimate, 31.8 last month
    price is paid 51.3 vs. 44.6 estimate, 40.8 last month
    production rose to 57.3. – strongest reading since November 2018
    the index 2 months ago was at a 11 year low

    #24037
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US construction spending for May -2.1% vs. 1.0% estimate

    #24041

    [size=5][color=purple][i]2020 Q2 WALL STREET EARNINGS were awesome even in midst of pandemic :woohoo:
    it’s only something which happens in one’s DREAMS[/i][/color][/size]

    [color=limegreen][size=5][b]Dow 25,735.04 -77.84 -0.30%
    S&P 500 3,115.87 15.58 0.50%
    Nasdaq 10,154.63 95.86 0.95%
    GlobalDow 2,827.85 28.79 1.03%
    Gold 1,780.90 -19.60 -1.09%
    Oil 39.76 0.49 1.25%[/b][/size][/color]

    [i]And may at least some of statues be preserved (and at least taken down lawfully)
    Paul HardCastle & Helen Rodgers do great job on Fleetwood Mac’s DREAMS 8)[/i]

    #24044
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US Job Situation Improved in June With 4.8 Million Non-Farm Payroll Jobs Added

    Written by TradersCom
    Category: Economy
    Published: 02 July 2020

    The US Labor Department reported another a surprise fall in unemployment and rise in non-farm payroll jobs on Friday for June as the Coronavirus hit the economy. Unemployment rate 11.1% v. 12.5% estimate, Prior month 13.3%

    More: https://traderscommunity.com/index.php/economy/2118-us-june-unemployment-with-economic-shutdown

    #24045
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US May Factory Orders (M/M) 8.0% v est 8.6% prev R -13.5%)
    – Factory Orders Ex-Trans 2.6% v est 6.5% prev R -8.9%

    #24046
    Truman
    Participant

    #Breaking

    Ghislaine Maxwell Arrested In New Hampshire by FBI and charged by federal prosecutors on #Epstein-related charges and expected to appear in a federal court later today.

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