Market Weekly: July 2 – 6 2018

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 34 total)
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    Where have we been and where are we…


    Super Harley

    Have a great Holiday week CI and everyone else at TC – love the Captain America comic photo – great choice!


    [size=5][b][color=blue]GOOD MONDAY MORNING TO ALL 8)

    Helmholtz Watson

    Yes and Canada’s tariffs not a promising gesture on Canada Day:

    Moody’s: Canada’s Imposition Of Nearly $13 Bln In Retaliatory Tariffs Against The U.S. Highlights Rising Risks To NAFTA Renegotiation


    Markit US June manufacturing PMI 55.4 vs 54.7 expected, Prev 54.6

    New orders 55.1 vs 53.7 prelim
    Output 54.6 vs 54.0 prelim


    US June ISM manufacturing index 60.2 vs 58.5 expected, Prev 58.7

    Employment 56.0 vs 56.3 prior
    Prices paid 76.8 vs 79.5 prior
    New orders 63.5 vs 63.7 prior


    “Business is strong in all regions. Materials are tight. Trucking continues to be a major challenge.” (Chemical Products)
    “Strong economic growth continues to put pressure/strain on capacity, lead time, availability and pricing across a broadening array of commodities and components.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
    “U.S. tariff policy and lack of predictability, along with [the] threat of trade wars, [is a] causing general business instability and [is] drag on growth for investments.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
    “Electronic component supply issues continue to disrupt production.” (Transportation Equipment)
    “We export to more than 100 countries. We are preparing to shift some customer responsibilities among manufacturing plants and business units due to trade issues (for example, we’ll shift production for China market from the U.S. to our Canadian plant to avoid higher tariffs). Within our company, there is a sense of uncertainty due to potential trade wars.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
    “The Section 232 steel tariffs are now impacting domestic steel prices and capacity. Base steel prices have already increased 20 percent since March.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
    “Transportation costs are going through the roof right now, which definitely impacts the decisions we’re making with regard to quantities we’re bringing in versus truckload and LTL.” (Furniture & Related Products)
    “The economy and product demand still continue to be strong. Having trouble finding people [to fill] blue collar positions. Lead times for parts and materials are moving out, and we are seeing commodity cost pressures increases with the threat of tariffs. Additionally, suppliers are asking for more price increases.” (Machinery)
    “The uncertainty of U.S. tariffs and the Canada/Mexico/E.U. retaliatory tariffs continues to cloud strategic planning efforts. Contingency planning (for tariffs) is consuming large amounts of manpower that could be used for more productive projects. The tariffs are improving margins in our raw material businesses; however, our businesses which are further up the supply chain are seeing significant inflation.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
    “The steel tariffs continue to drive uncertainty. Projects and services using steel have limited days that prices are good for. Trucking is tight, requiring advanced planning and increasing costs.” (Paper Products)


    US construction spending for May 0.4% vs. 0.5% expected, Prev + 0.9% (revised lower from 1.8%)
    Private construction rose 0.3%
    Public construction rose 0.7%

    Expect the revision to mean a further writedown in 2Q GDP estimates. Note March construction spending was -0.9%.


    The Atlanta Fed GDPNow index rises to 4.09% from 3.83%

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.1 percent on July 2, up from 3.8 percent on June 29. After this morning’s construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real government spending growth increased from 0.8 percent to 1.6 percent, while the nowcast of second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth decreased from 7.6 percent to 5.3 percent.

    The nowcasts of second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 2.7 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, to 2.9 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively, after this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for June-normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data-increased from 0.15 to 0.77 after the ISM report this morning.


    [color=limegreen][size=5][b]Dow Jones 24,307.18 +35.77 (0.15%)
    S&P 500 2,726.71 +8.34 (0.31%)
    Nasdaq 7,567.69 +57.38 (0.76%)
    Russell 1,655.09 +12.02 (0.73%)
    NYSE Comp 12,485.58 −18.67 (0.15%)[/b][/size][/color]

    Just as the “predators of the night” threaten our gardens — there are some ugly aspects of TRADE WAR that I’m cautious & even BEARISH over that must be worked out … so CAUTION ahead 🙂


    WARNING WARNING WILL ROBINSON … and to share “weather wise” … be on lookout in HEAT Wave for STRONG STORMS — they abound in SW VA … so batten down the financial & the bunker hatches … thankfully our Avalon got me home in torrential flooding rains 8) … maybe old Al Gore was right after all – lol 😉


    Have a great July 4 all – esp CI – look forward to more deer pics – be careful of the heat 🙂


    US May factory orders +0.4% vs 0.0% expected, Prev -0.8% (revised to -0.4%)

    Ex transport +0.7% vs +0.4% prev (revised to +0.9%)
    Durable goods orders -0.4% vs -0.5% expected
    Ex transport 0.0% vs -0.3% prevCapital goods orders nondefense ex air +0.3% vs +0.2% prev
    Capital goods shipments +0.2% vs -0.1% prev


    OIL = $75 :woohoo:


    [size=5][color=purple][i]Trade war concerns created some profit taking in equities at close
    SHORT DAY ON WALL STREET — as we can give thanks for living in land of the free
    HAPPY 4TH OF JULY TO ALL 8)[/i][/color][/size]

    [color=red][b]Dow Jones 24,174.82 −132.36 (0.54%)
    S&P 500 2,713.22 −13.49 (0.49%)
    Nasdaq 7,502.67 −65.01 (0.86%)
    Russell 2000 1,660.42 +5.33 (0.32%)
    NYSE Comp 12,494.70 +9.12 (0.073%)[/b][/color]


    Hope everyone has a great time with family & friends 8)[/b][/color]

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