Market Weekly: Jan 27 2018 – Feb 2 2019

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 40 total)
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  • #19724
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US Conference Board January Consumer Confidence Misses 120.2 v 124.0 estimate

    Prior month was at 126.6, revised down from 128.1. The index is at the lowest level since July 2017.
    Present situation 169.6 versus 171.6, highs were 172.80
    Expectations index collapse to 87.3 from 99.1 the he lowest level since October 2016

    #19727
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    US Auction $32Bil 7 year note at 2.625% high yield Prior 2.68%.

    Bid to cover 2.54x vs 2.46x prior
    2.504x average over last 6 auctions

    Indirect bids 58.3% v 67.4% prior
    Direct bids 24.9% v 14.6% prior
    Primary dealers bids 11.13%

    #19728
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    UK leads the Way as Europe rebounds:

    France: CAC 40 4928.18 39.60 0.81%
    Germany: DAX 11218.83 8.52 0.08%
    Italy: FTSE MIB 19701.60 93.47 0.48%
    Spain: IBEX 35 9119.10 56.70 0.63%
    UK: FTSE 100 6833.93 86.83 1.29%

    #19729

    [color=purple][size=5][i]MIXED FINISH & Apple had lower revenues & holiday sales
    POLAR VORTEX has reached SW Virginia & a live WIND CHILL map shown below[/i][/size][/color]
    [b][size=5]Dow 24,579.96 51.74 0.21%
    [color=red]S&P 500 2,640.00 -3.85 -0.15%
    Nasdaq 7,028.29 -57.39 -0.81%[/color]
    Gold 1,318.10 2.90 0.22%
    Oil 53.44 0.13 0.24%[/size][/b]

    #19730

    but everything else was up 19%
    https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2019/01/apple-says-iphones-were-down-15-last-quarter-but-everything-else-was-up-19/%5B/b%5D%5B/size%5D%5B/color%5D

    Apple today shared its fiscal first-quarter revenue with shareholders. As investors feared and as previously warned, Apple posted revenue of $84.3 billion for the quarter ending in December, missing revenue expectations in the quarter by around $4 billion. CEO Tim Cook primarily credited macroeconomic conditions in China and their impact on iPhone sales in that region for the failure to meet expectations. That said, the company reported that every part of its business besides the iPhone was up year over year, as was overall revenue in the United States and Europe. The quarter was its second best ever in terms of revenue.
    .

    #19731
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US MBA Mortgage Applications W/E 25 January -3.0% vs -2.7% prior

    Purchase index 266.2 vs 272.5 prior
    Market index 388.7 vs 400.6 prior
    Refinancing index 1,049.9 vs 1,110.5 prior
    30-year mortgage rate 4.76% vs 4.75% prior

    #19735

    [color=green][size=5][b]RALLY TIME … FED will be PATIENT in further rate increases (YAY) 8)
    FEAR NOT 😉 … DOW up over +400 as the Santa/January rally continues ;)[/b][/size][/color]

    #19736


    [color=limegreen][size=6][b]Dow 25,014.86 434.90 1.77%
    S&P 500 2,681.05 41.05 1.55%
    Nasdaq 7,183.08 154.79 2.20%
    Gold 1,324.80 9.60 0.73%
    Oil 54.31 1.00 1.88% [/b][/size][/color]

    #19737
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US January Challenger job cuts +18.7% vs +35.3% y/y prior
    Prior +35.3%
    via Challenger, Gray, and Christmas Inc – 3 January 2019

    Layoffs 52.99k Prior 43.88k

    #19738
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US Q4 employment cost index ECI 0.7% versus 0.8% prior and expected

    Wages and salaries increased 0.6 percent (70% of compensation)
    Benefit costs (30 percent of compensation) increased 0.7 percent

    YoY gain of 2.9% with wages and salaries YoY were up 3.1%
    Private wages and salaries rose 0.7% and 3.1% YoY

    The YoY wages and salaries was the most since September 2008

    #19739
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    [color=red][b]January Chicago PMI 56.7 Misses v 61.5 expected
    Prior 65.4 (revised down to 63.8 )
    Lowest since Jan 2017[/b][/color]

    Employment rises at faster pace
    Production rises at slower pace
    Inventories rose at a slower pace

    #19741

    [size=5][b][color=aqua]CHICAGO – photo gallery of extreme cold — with an example below
    [/color]https://chicago.curbed.com/2019/1/30/18203882/polar-vortex-photos-chicago-weather-illinois[/b][/size]

    #19742


    [size=5][b]Dow 24,999.67 -15.19 -0.06%
    [color=green]S&P 500 2,704.10 23.05 0.86%
    Nasdaq 7,281.74 98.66 1.37%[/color]
    Gold 1,325.70 10.20 0.78%
    Oil 54.02 -0.21 -0.39%[/b][/size]

    #19745
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    [size=5][color=red]China Caixin manufacturing PMI (Jan): 48.3 (vs. expected 49.6)
    Expected 49.6, prior 49.7 [/color][/size]

    Big drop, down to 48.3 to the lowest in nearly three years.

    Relatively muted demand conditions underpinned the first fall in purchasing activity for 20 months, while firms also registered lower inventories of both purchased and finished items.

    [color=green]On a positive note, employment levels fell at the weakest rate for nine months, while confidence towards the business outlook was at its highest since May 2018.
    [/color]

    The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure
    snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted 48.3 at the start of 2019, down from 49.7 in December, to point to a
    continued softening in the health of China’s manufacturing sector. The latest PMI reading was the lowest since February 2016

    Comment

    Commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said:

    “The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI fell further to 48.3 in January, the lowest since February 2016.

    “The subindex for new orders dipped further into contractionary territory, pointing to a moderate contraction in demand across the manufacturing sector. Yet the gauge for new export orders rose notably above the 50 level, the dividing line that separates contraction from expansion, reaching its highest point since March 2018, showing that companies’ export orders have obviously rebounded since the truce in the China-U.S. trade
    war.

    “The output subindex dropped, highlighting the drag effect of softer demand on production. ”

    Oil and other commodities fell on it as did the Australian Dollar

    Source: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/945f5bd422af495cb40ea9660b1553b4?hootPostID=84c645c8b00e78960826ab3498b202a0

    #19749
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US January Non Farm Payrolls Gain 304,0000 Jobs, Highest Participation in 5 Years

    The U.S. jobs report for January a robust 304,000 new NFP jobs following revised December non farm payrolls of 222,000 new jobs with unemployment rising to 4.0% off 48 year lows. The best four month stretch of gains since 2014.

    https://traderscommunity.com/index.php/economy/1340-us-employment-and-wages-situation-2

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