Market Weekly: Feb 17 – Feb 23 2019

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 29 total)
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    [color=purple][size=5][i]Where have we been and where are we.:)
    Happy Presidents Day holiday to all (in spite of massive protests tomorrow – lol)
    and hopeful for best for our nation plus good week of trading & gains ahead 8)[/i][/size][/color]


    Helmholtz Watson

    there is no fear – the expectation of inevitable new highs and risk on with no downside underscores how broken the markets are but perhaps more how out of whack with reality society has become.


    [color=brown][size=5][b]HAPPY PRESIDENTS DAY to all 8)

    [color=purple][size=5][i]Hopefully a quiet day ahead as all markets are closed & #45 is vacationing in Florida 8)
    Also was hopeful our 1st lady can hide the Twitter device – lol πŸ˜‰ :woohoo:
    But a massive TWEET storm debunking 60 MIN interviews unfolded this morning – lol :whistle: :whistle: :whistle: [/i][/size][/color]

    Is The Stock Market Closed For Presidents Day, Feb. 19? Three-day-weekend alert: The NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed on Monday to observe Presidents Day. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association recommends that bond markets shutter on Monday as well.


    [color=teal][size=5][b]LOL – being a SCI-FAN fan … we know in parallel & alternate universes some things can deviate badly πŸ˜‰

    OOOOOHHHHHHH THE HUMANITY :woohoo:[/b][/size][/color]


    NAHB Housing Market Index rose to a four-month high of 62 in February of 2019 from 58 in the previous month

    Beat market expectations of 59.

    Index component that tracks views of current sales conditions rose to 67 from 64 in January;
    Component of home sales over the next six months went up to 68 from 63
    Component measure of buyer traffic advanced to 48 from 44.

    Nahb Housing Market Index in the United States averaged 50.24 from 1985 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 78 in December of 1998 and a record low of 8 in January of 2009.


    FEAR NOT brave traders & investors 8)

    [color=green][size=5][b]Dow 25,891.32 8.07 0.03%
    S&P 500 2,779.76 4.16 0.15%
    Nasdaq 7,486.77 14.36 0.19%
    Gold 1,344.20 22.10 1.67%
    Oil 56.09 0.50 0.90%[/b][/size][/color]


    US MBA mortgage applications w/e 15 February +3.6% vs -6.9% prior

    Prior -3.7%; revised lower to -6.9%
    Purchase index 232.7 v 237.7 prior; revised to 228.9
    Market index 365.3 v 364.8 prior; revised to 352.6
    Refinancing index 1,084.4 v 1,052.4 prior; revised to 1,019.2
    30-year mortgage rate 4.66% v 4.65% prior


    [color=purple][size=5][i]Winter storm PETRA has already left 4″ of SNOW/ICE mix .8)
    And more is on the way until warm front hits tomorrow with heavy rain :ohmy:
    Bambi & I may go groundhog hunting after PUNXY Phil :woohoo:
    As there ain’t no early spring in mtns of SW VA πŸ˜‰
    A nearby webcam captures that beauty πŸ™‚ [/i][/size][/color]


    [color=purple][size=5][i]OHHH THE HUMANITY :ohmy:
    As expected, “Feel the BERN” has entered the field of candidates :woohoo:
    I think 16 have registered so far for 2020 πŸ˜‰
    Definitely interesting times in the months ahead :huh:[/i][/size][/color]

    Helmholtz Watson

    [b]Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
    January 29-30, 2019[/b]

    A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, January 29, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, January 30, 2019, at 9:00 a.m.


    Important to continue to monitor financial market developments
    Noted that some downside risks had increased
    Business investment has moderated
    Recent household data have been strong
    Strong labor market, inflation near target
    See continued sustained expansion
    A few officials concerned that uncertainty not captured by the dot plot
    Reserves might near efficient level later this year
    Several participants said rate hikes might prove necessary only if inflation outcomes higher than baseline outlook
    Almost all participants thought that it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing the Federal Reserve’s asset holdings later this year
    Many Fed officials unsure what rate moves may be needed in 2019
    Almost all officials wanted to halt runoff later this year

    “Market participants pointed to a number of factors as contributing to the heightened volatility and sustained declines in risk asset prices and interest rates over recent months including a weaker outlook and greater uncertainties for foreign economies (particularly for Europe and China), perceptions of greater policy risks, and the partial shutdown of the federal government.”

    “A patient posture would allow time for a clearer picture of the international trade policy situation and the state of the global economy to emerge and, in particular, could allow policymakers to reach a firmer judgment about the extent and persistence of the economic slowdown in Europe and China.”

    “The aggregate level of reserves had already declined by $1.2 trillion from a peak level of $2.8 trillion reached in October 2014; the decline stemmed from both reductions in asset holdings and increases in nonreserve liabilities such as Federal Reserve notes in circulation.”

    “Against this backdrop, the staff presented options for substantially slowing the decline in reserves by ending the reduction in asset holdings at some point over the latter half of this year and thereafter holding the size of the SOMA portfolio roughly constant for a time so that the average level of reserves would fall at a very gradual pace reflecting the trend growth in other Federal Reserve liabilities.”


    European Stockmarket closes

    [color=green]France: CAC 40 5195.95 35.43 0.69%
    Germany: DAX 11401.97 92.76 0.82%
    Italy: FTSE MIB 20304.21 76.02 0.38%
    Spain: IBEX 35 9181.10 44.70 0.49%
    UK: FTSE 100 7228.62 49.45 0.69%[/color]


    The Fed’s Clarida After FOMC Minutes Doing The Hard Sell on CNN:

    I don’t think change in Fed policy statements is a U-turn
    BUT The December rate hike wasn’t a mistake

    It’s no clear how much of a US economic growth slowdown we are seeing
    Outside estimates of necessary excess reserves are in the $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion range

    There are scenarios where we may not hike this year
    Labor market data is still strong, retail data softer
    Fed can afford to be patient on next adjustment
    In coming meetings could decide when to stop runoff

    We don’t see Brexit as a big systemic risk for US
    We’re very close to our employment and price goals


    [size=5][b][color=green]Dow 25,954.44 63.12 0.24%
    S&P 500 2,784.70 4.94 0.18%
    Nasdaq 7,489.07 2.30 0.03%[/color]
    Gold 1,341.20 -3.60 -0.27%
    Oil 56.90 0.81 1.44%[/b][/size]


    [color=purple][size=5][i]GOOD MORNING from the SNOW covered & deer infested mtns of SW VA
    I got some incredible shots of deer in the snow yesterday, and even got the sled out late in the day πŸ˜‰
    MARKETS are profit taking a little — as DOW is off about 100

    LOL — theme for today is Roger Stone & hoax actor’s appearance in court
    BOTH likely to be jailed today :whistle: [/i][/size][/color]


    Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI

    Thurns down to 48.5 from 50.3 in Jan to the lowest in nearly 3 yrs. Output and new orders fall at sharper rates, while optimism turns negative amid China slowdown and global trade cycle concerns.

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