Market Weekly: Feb 10 2019 – Feb 16 2019

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 26 total)
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    [color=purple][size=5][i]Where have we been and where are we …
    Hopefully there will be no GOVT Shutdown II at end of week[/i][/size][/color]



    What Do Pigs and Sheep Have in Common?

    Another week – more China nothing statements to keep the stock market from falling – Lunar Week gave us a break …


    [size=5][b]Dow 25,053.11 -53.22 -0.21%
    [color=green]S&P 500 2,709.80 1.92 0.07%
    Nasdaq 7,307.90 9.71 0.13%[/color]
    Gold 1,311.70 -6.80 -0.52%
    Oil 52.40 -0.32 -0.61%[/b][/size]

    [color=purple][size=5][i]P.S. LOL – Photo of the day 8)
    Global warming & climate change supporter Amy Klobuchar :
    announces for president in a Minnesota snowstorm 😉 :whistle: :whistle: :whistle:
    And #45 has affectionately nicknamed his latest competitor for 2020 as “Snow Woman” :woohoo:
    and indeed the candidates for 2020 resemble a STAR WARS bar scene now 😉

    Helmholtz Watson

    [color=orange][size=5][b]Have “Agreement In Principle” Reached In U.S. Shutdown Talks: U.S. Republican Senator Shelby
    Says With Border Security Deal
    Says Staff Will Work On Details; Gives No Outline Of Deal


    Deputy Italian Prime Minster Matteo Salvini Talks of Seizing Control of Italy’s gold reserves

    This is another chapter in the Battle with the Bank of Italy as he threatens to take numbers after the central bank failed to protect and supervise Italian banks.

    “My bill only aims at making clear that the gold belongs to the state, not to the government,” he said in a interview. “If there are doubts on our intentions, we can also pass another law saying none of the gold reserves can be sold unless there is a majority of two thirds or more of both houses of Parliament.”

    The central bank says its €90.8 billion in gold is the fourth-largest reserve in the world. Borghi’s bill, being examined by the Lower House’s Finance Committee, calls for an explicit interpretation of legislation that the institute “holds and manages as deposits” the gold, while the state has ownership.

    In Rome this week, Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini emphasised the point, saying it’s “important to state that that gold belongs to Italians”.

    Borghi said his plan was supported by a broad majority in Parliament.

    Tension between the government and the Bank of Italy hasn’t been in short supply recently. Over the weekend, coalition leaders Salvini of the League and Luigi Di Maio of Five Star Movement used a packed meeting of former stakeholders in two liquidated lenders to slam the Bank of Italy for lax supervision.

    Last week, Five Star ministers forced the cabinet to postpone a decision on renewing the term of deputy general director Luigi Federico Signorini, newspapers including la Repubblica reported. On Sunday, Finance Minister Giovanni Tria was cited as saying that central bank’s independence must be protected.

    The Borghi bill isn’t the first gold controversy in Italy. In 2009, former premier Silvio Berlusconi made a failed attempt to tax the central bank’s reserves.

    “The gold is the property of the Italian people, not of anyone else,” he said.

    Italy’s gold reserves are 2,452 tonnes only the US, IMF and Germany are bigger,

    On selling it “it may be an interesting idea.”


    BOE’s Carney:

    [color=red]China is the one major economy in which all major financial imbalances have worsened
    China will not bail out world economy this time
    China might stabilize economic growth slightly below 6%[/color]
    Trade tensions threaten expansion
    Provided the expansion continues, a modest tightening of monetary policy over time will likely be sufficient to achieve inflation targets
    Global growth more likely than not to stabilize around new, modest trend

    Slowing world economy reflects shift from accommodative to tighter financial conditions

    Been struck by the degree of mistrust in UK financial system

    I will be around to bear consequences on Brexit if we don’t get it right, this could go quite badly
    It’s in everyone’s interest to find a Brexit solution
    Trade concern is cascading through economies


    [color=blue][size=5][i]GOOD TUESDAY MORNING to all … with possible DEAL on the wall
    DOW is up 250 & stocks are in RALLY MODE 😆
    but don’t count your chickens til they hatch … as only 1.3B is allocated :whistle:
    Still #45 should take the money & run & claim victory 😉
    and he will as he still has additional options beyond the $1.3 if needed

    Overnight we had an ice storm & trees are coated
    (it’s nice to work almost full time at home these days) 8)
    Major rainfall is on the way later today in deer infested mtns of SW VA :)[/i][/size][/color]


    [size=5][color=red][i]And one should plan ahead now ….
    so as not to end up in the “dog house” Thursday night[/i][/color][/size] 😉 8)


    [color=limegreen][size=5][i][color=purple]WOW – THE WALL ST BULLS were stampeding toward the close
    KEEP THOSE DOGGIES MOVING — RAWHIDE[/color][/i] 8)[/size][/color]

    [size=6][color=green][b]Dow 25,425.76 372.65 1.49%
    S&P 500 2,744.73 34.93 1.29%
    Nasdaq 7,414.62 106.71 1.46%
    Gold 1,312.70 -1.30 -0.10%
    Oil 53.48 0.38 0.72%[/b][/color][/size]


    Ireland PM Varadkar: There’s no such thing as a positive Brexit

    Believes that UK and EU will strike a deal


    US January CPI 1.6%, Exp. 1.5%, Last 1.9%
    Prior was +1.9% y/y lowest since July 2017)

    US January Core Ex food and energy CPI 2.2% vs 2.1% y/y expected

    CPI m/m 0.0% vs +0.1% exp, Prior 0.0%
    CPI ex food and energy m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% exp

    Average weekly earnings +1.9% y/y vs +1.4% prior
    Avg hourly earnings +1.7% m/m vs +1.3% prior


    Fed’s Bostic Speaking in Ireland

    One more increase for 2019 is my projection. 2.5% growth is consistent with 1 hike

    It was time to put our policy on a more-neutral range
    My view has not changed very much on how monetary policy should operate
    It’s important that we don’t go too fast and inadvertently hurt economy
    Need to ‘wait and see’ how the economy responds
    Things have changed a little, businesses less certain about 2019

    [color=red]Has not come to a view on what size reserves Fed should carry on balance sheet
    Govt shutdown is not going to show up in numbers too deeply. Another level of uncertainty
    Trade uncertainty with China and NAFTA revisions are risks now
    Slowdowns in China and Europe are significant
    American consumer likely to feel tariffs for first time in next round[/color]


    [color=green][size=5][b]Dow 25,543.27 117.51 0.46%
    S&P 500 2,753.03 8.30 0.30%
    Nasdaq 7,420.38 5.76 0.08%
    Gold 1,309.30 -4.70 -0.36%
    Oil 53.95 0.85 1.60%[/b][/size][/color]


    US January final demand PPI YoY 2.1% vs 2.0% est.

    MoM -0.1% vs 0.1% est, Prior month revised 2-0.1% from -0.2%

    EX food and energy +0.3% versus 0.2% expected. prior month revised to 0.0% from -0.1%

    PPI year on year final demand 2.0% versus 2.1% expected. Prior month 2.5%
    PPI year on year Ex food and energy 2.6% versus 2.5%. Prior month 2.7%
    PPI YoY Ex food, energy, trade 2.5% versus 2.7% expected. Prior month 2.8%


    US retail sales fell by 1.2 percent from a month earlier in December 2018 Misses market expectations of 0.2 percent gain

    Prior revised +0.1 percent in November

    It was the steepest decline in trade since September 2009, as sales fell in almost all categories.

    Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales dropped 1.7 percent in December after an increase of 1 percent in November.

    Retail Sales MoM in the United States averaged 0.35 percent from 1992 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6.70 percent in October of 2001 and a record low of -3.90 percent in November of 2008.

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