Market Weekly: Dec 31 2018 – Jan 6 2019

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    [color=blue][size=5][i]Where have we been and where are we …
    [color=red][b]Wishing a HAPPY, prosperous, and healthy NEW YEAR to all
    May the FORCE BE WITH US in 2019[/b][/color] 8)[/i][/size][/color]




    WISHING ALL A HAPPY NEW YEAR — it is already 2019 in Australia & eastern Asia 8)[/b][/size][/color]


    [size=5][color=teal][b]2018 was all-time RECORD YEAR for RAIN for Roanoke VA :unsure:
    YTD total of [/size]


    [color=limegreen][size=6][b]Dow 23,327.46 265.06 1.15%
    S&P 500 2,506.85 21.11 0.85%
    Nasdaq 6,635.28 50.76 0.77%
    Gold 1,284.50 1.50 0.12%
    Oil 45.85 0.52 1.15% [/b][/size][/color]


    [color=purple][size=5][i]2019 has arrived & thankful for another year
    Wishing the best to all as we forge ahead in months to come 8)[/i][/size][/color]


    A few tunes to welcome 2019 8) 8) 8)


    [b][color=red]One to watch with the trade war, South Korea’s exports fell in December 1.2% y/y vs. expected +2.5%
    Exports to China fell 13.9%[/color][/b]

    South Korean imports in December, +0.9% less than the +4% expected

    Warnings for China, global growth and Japan and Australia and POTUS the US …


    [b][size=5][color=red]PPPPLLLLUUUNNGGGGEEEEEE … DOW futures down -360 points
    Asia & Euro markets also start 1st day of 2019 in RED[/color]
    [color=teal]WALL ST likely will give back some of last week’s brief Santa rally today
    JAN 2nd is “Back to work day – as holiday parties are over”[/color] :woohoo: [/size][/b]


    All started with those South Korean Trade and China PMI Reports …. what did thye think would happen with a Trade War….


    That China Miss:

    [color=red]China Caixin December Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 (expected & Prior 50.2)

    Falls into contraction in December at 49.7, first time in contraction since May of 2017)

    Comments from Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group

    subindex for new orders slid below the breakeven point of 50 for the first time since June 2016, reflecting decreasing demand in the manufacturing sector
    gauge for new export orders remained in contractionary territory, its reading rose marginally
    … That showed external demand remained subdued due to the trade frictions between China and the U.S., while domestic demand weakened more notably.
    employment subindex edged up but remained in contraction
    output subindex rose slightly to above 50, but was still near its lowest level in three years … The drag of weak demand on production may gradually become more evident.
    Stocks of finished goods increased at a slower pace
    stocks of purchased items declined, pointing to companies’ growing intention to destock, which may in future disrupt the stability of the manufacturing sector’s output.


    [color=red][b]Nikkei South Korea Manufacturing PMI 49.8 up from 48.6 Prior but remained below the crucial 50.0 mark which separates growth from
    contraction. But indicating a softer pace of deterioration in operating conditions in South Korea’s goods-producing economy.[/b][/color]

    Order book volumes fell for a second manufacturing sector continues to point to underlying weakness within the economy, according to Dec PMI data. Order book volumes continued to deteriorate, prompting production cutbacks and stagnating employment.

    Commenting on the South Korean Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said:

    “Survey data for South Korea’s manufacturing sector continues to point to underlying weakness brewing within the domestic economy. Order book
    volumes continued to deteriorate, prompting production cutbacks and stagnating employment. Export markets also remained in downturn, as sales to Europe and China reportedly dropped off at the back-end of the year.

    “The lacking pressure from the demand-side led firms to discount prices to remain competitive and pull in clients. Fortunately, this fell in line with
    weaker cost inflation. Nevertheless, there was a strengthening of manufacturing confidence, which improved to a six-month high. Panellists foresee firmer growth in the South Korean economy over the coming year, which is expected to be supported by healthier order inflows and new product launches.”


    Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 51.4 in December.

    [color=red]New work declines for third month running;
    Business sentiment hits fresh six-year low.
    Italy remained in contraction territory and was also joined by France[/color]

    “A disappointing December rounds off a year in which a manufacturing boom faded away to near stagnation.


    Interesting UK PMI number in light of BREXIT and comparing to EU:

    UK Manufacturing PMI at 6-month high of 54.2 in December, driven by stronger inflows of new business and solid increase in stocks of purchases. Movements in both mainly reflected Brexit preparations by manufacturers and their clients

    “Though the overall index figure was higher than last month, this should be viewed with some scepticism. Whilst the road to Brexit remains mired in the mud of indecision and disagreement, there is likely to be some correction in the sector this year as Brexit buffer stocks are depleted and overall output could fall.”


    So the $ES_F is trying to bounce just ripping 20 handles – here’s a clue;

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