Market Weekly: Aug 6 – Aug 12 2018

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  • #17644

    Where have we been and where are we…



    Thank you CI – I see Bitcoin has still a long way to go still more than 61% from that high yet they talk it up. We move onto the next sectors in earnings. The trade wars seem to be out of mind with investors, what happens if China plays tough with apple for instance?


    [color=green][b]Good Monday morning to all 🙂 … Markets are CAUTIOUSLY higher 😉 … but so is OIL @ $69.69 :woohoo:

    Dow 25,532.76 70.18 0.28%
    S&P 500 2,850.39 10.04 0.35%
    Nasdaq 7,843.15 31.14 0.40%
    GlobalDow 3,078.01 2.22 0.07%
    Gold 1,218.70 -4.50 -0.37%
    Oil 69.75 1.26 1.84%[/b][/color]


    Right about Turkey concerns – with currency crisis in full affect $USDTRY trading to yet another record high over 5.28 on threatened US sanctions #forex


    [size=5][b][color=green]Dow 25,502.18 39.60 0.16%
    S&P 500 2,850.40 10.05 0.35%
    Nasdaq 7,859.68 47.66 0.61%
    GlobalDow 3,076.07 0.28 0.01% [/color]
    Gold 1,216.00 -7.20 -0.59%
    Oil 68.89 0.40 0.58%[/b][/size]

    Helmholtz Watson

    Ride that bull – unless it bucks you off 🙂


    [size=5][color=limegreen][b]SUPER GREEN FINISH

    Dow 25,628.91 126.73 0.50%
    S&P 500 2,858.45 8.05 0.28%
    Nasdaq 7,883.66 23.99 0.31%
    Gold 1,219.70 1.40 0.11%
    Oil 69.31 0.13 0.19%[/b][/color][/size]


    China retaliates on tariffs and the trade wars marches on yet the S&P 500 up 5 days in a row – is this market so devoid of risk? The Bullish euphoria and ignorance of risk is very concerning. All I read is this time it’s different….


    US auction of $26Bil of 10 year notes at 2.96%

    Bid to cover at 2.55X from 2.57x last auction
    Directs at 11.3% vs 10.5% last
    Indirects at 61.3% vs 65% last.
    Dealers at 27.45% vs 24.5% last


    [size=5][color=purple][b]Dow 25,583.75 -45.16 -0.18%
    S&P 500 2,857.70 -0.75 -0.03%
    Nasdaq 7,888.33 4.66 0.06%
    GlobalDow 3,097.20 -0.70 -0.02%
    Gold 1,221.50 0.50 0.04%
    Oil 66.76 -0.18 -0.27%[/b][/color][/size]


    US June PPI 0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected, Prior +0.3%
    Ex food and energy +0.1% vs +0.2% expected
    Ex food, energy, trade +0.3% vs +0.2% expected
    No revisions to prior

    Final demand +3.3% vs +3.4% exp
    Ex food and energy +2.7% vs +2.8% exp
    Ex food, energy and trade +2.8% vs +2.7% prior


    US initial jobless claims for the Aug 4 week 213K vs. 220K estimate
    4-week average at 214.25K vs 214.75K last week
    Continuing claims come in at 1755k vs. 1730K estimate
    Employment trends for claims remain steady/strong near record low levels


    Also agree with Clem about the oversight of present and forward looking fundamental risks which the market seems to be exhibiting.

    Of course I’m biased since in recent days locked in all my gains from the large SPX position taken the week of February 12 2018 and locked in the gains from the over 10% position I had taken in JPM just weeks ago when it was at the $105 level. Just feel at present from a fundamental perspective the market may be overlooking the potential forward looking geo-political risks (to include the upcoming Midterm elections and historically how Mr. Market behaved during midterm election years in the period prior to those elections), interest rate risk (rate hike expected in September and again later this year), trade factors, etc..


    Read the following about 1 1/2 weeks ago, written by Scott Wren (Senior Global Equity Strategist), and thought it was such a good point-of-view about the so-called trade wars wanted to share with others. The following was just part of the report, but thought Mr. Wren made an excellent point:

    “Look at the U.S. as a “customer” and the countries that export into the domestic market as “businesses” that provide goods and services. If one talks to people who run successful businesses, a common theme emerges. These businesses want to keep their customers—especially their best customers—happy. Why? Because, clearly, if your customers are not happy, they probably won’t stick around for long.

    Business owners will tell you that they are often willing to “bend over backwards” to accommodate and keep their best customers. Think about that for a minute. If your best customer has an issue with the way in which goods and services are delivered or priced, a successful business will likely pay close attention and make at least some adjustments if necessary (and if it makes financial sense). That is how they stay successful and keep their best customers. You could say that oftentimes the best customers have some degree of “leverage.”

    Now apply that line of thought to the current trade debate. Recent trade data show the U.S. is the biggest export customer for China, the European Union (EU), Japan, Great Britain, Canada, and Mexico.”


    [quote=”Helmholtz Watson” post=7440]Ride that bull – unless it bucks you off :)[/quote]

    Having grown up in Texas, as well as knew some professional bull riders (one friend won the San Antonio Stock Show & Rodeo bull riding competition back in the day), it’s not getting bucked off that concerns me. ;>) It’s getting gored or trampled when that bull bucks hard that is of concern (after listening to stories of what friends who rode bulls professionally on the bull riding circuit had witnessed happen to fellow competitors). Think that same analogy could apply to market participants as well as professional bull riders.

    (At my age it doesn’t leave one much time to recover when a bull starts bucking.:) )

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