Market Weekly: Aug 20 – Aug 26 2018

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 37 total)
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    [size=5][b]PPPLLLUUNNNGGGEEEE (at least at open) as 2 NDAs #45 paid for are stretched into becoming a campaign donation. In legal terms the NDA payments were not adjudicated through system properly — as it’s more of a crafted PLEA DEAL (and may not even line up with the written laws itself) … Rightly or wrongly, I see this is more of personal $$$ a billionaire was using to cover up sins of past using NDA.

    But #45 has made press and deep state angry & they will continue in a relentless manner to attack every day of his presidency & beyond 🙁 The special counsel has indeed exceeded original scope of just looking into Russian involvement & wasting MILLIONS of tax $$$ — if this is what we have found so far.

    And indeed I’m sure a few minor wrongs can be found in every POTUS election on both sides. And I actually would not favor another special counsel looking at the other side where some violations also clearly stand out to me. Instead our GOVT should be about serving the needs of people, and not trying to destroy folks or throw someone out of office on minor mistakes

    The Worst Day Yet of Trump’s Presidency

    QUOTE: Federal prosecutors told the court that Cohen “made the payments described herein in order to influence the 2016 presidential election.” The payments worked—neither woman went public about their sexual relationships with Trump until after the election—but they also exceeded federal campaign contribution limits.[/color][/b]

    Mulluer has got a few canaries to sing but these efforts are hurting & dividing country — doing more harm than overall good (as the 2016 election is over). And I’m certainly not a fan of all #45’s actions but love the platform of lower taxes & an attempt to improve things for the working class.[/size]


    [color=limegreen][size=5][b]FUTURES are roaring back in spite of the issues from yesterday’s rulings … DOW Futures now off only minus 22 points 8)

    not even FAKE NEWS can keep these hot markets & stronger economy down for long 😉 :whistle: [/b][/size][/color]


    US MBA mortgage applications W/E 17 August +4.2% vs -2.0% prior

    Purchase index 232.1 vs 225.5 prior
    Market index 349.9 vs 335.8 prior
    Refinancing index 982.7 vs 927.5 prior
    30-year mortgage rate 4.81% vs 4.81% prior


    Here are the biggest gaining stocks in the longest bull market ever:


    Interesting only four companies in the S&P 500 down in that time period
    [color=red]Mosaic down 26 percent
    Apache down 18.2 percent
    Newmont Mining down 15.6 percent
    Freeport-McMoRan down 12.6 percent[/color]


    US July existing home sales 5.34m vs 5.40m expected, Prior 5.38m

    Existing home sales -0.7% m/m vs +0.4% expected
    Median price +4.5% y/y
    Inventory at 4.3 months
    Existing home sales down 1.5% y/y

    Note this is the fourth straight month of declines for the first time since 2013, interestingly mortgage apps were up for first time in a while this morning.

    Helmholtz Watson

    From Fed Minutes:

    Most participants said escalation of trade disputes was a potentially consequential downside risk for US economy
    Powell said Fed would likely resume discussion of operating framework for monetary policy in the fall


    [color=teal][b][size=5]as an opinion (not fully established in total facts) .

    Paradoxically, I believe #45 actually may have run one of the CLEANEST campaigns of all time when it came to his own DIRECT participation …. Keeping in mind that he was inexperienced as a politician & ran more in a business-like manner (knowing based on his reality TV days that millions are watching his every move). and the ironry is that this is the most broadly investigated & controversial election of all time — mostly on speculation than “found facts” so far.

    Even if #45 had 2 or more NDA payments — and used HIS OWN money & not from campaign – how is that a criminal campaign violation?

    And the the “those who forget their history” category –— #44 had very bad violations back in 2008 & was fined $375,000 & no one made much of a fuss :whistle:

    FLASHBACK: Remember When Obama Campaign Was Fined $375,000 for Campaign Reporting Violations AND NO JAIL TIME?



    [size=6][b][color=red]Dow 25,733.60 -88.69 -0.34%
    S&P 500 2,861.82 -1.14 -0.04% [/color]
    [color=green]Nasdaq 7,889.10 29.92 0.38%
    Gold 1,202.90 2.90 0.24%
    Oil 67.87 2.03 3.08%[/color][/b][/size]


    [size=5][color=teal][b]prayers of safety also for our 50th state
    Hurricane Lane outer bands are now approaching as strong CAT 4
    hopefully eye wall itself will completely miss the Islands & only a glancing blow[/b][/color][/size]


    US FHFA June House Price Index +0.2% vs +0.3% expected
    Prior was +0.2% (revised to +0.4%)
    Trend at +6.5% y/y


    US August prelim Markit manufacturing PMI 54.5 vs 55.0 expected, Prior 55.3
    **Lowest since November

    Services 55.2 vs 55.8 expected, Prior 56.0
    Composite 55.0 vs 55.7 prior


    [size=6][color=red]Dow 25,656.98 -76.62 -0.30%
    S&P 500 2,856.98 -4.84 -0.17%
    Nasdaq 7,878.46 -10.64 -0.13%
    Gold 1,191.80 -2.20 -0.18%
    Oil 67.88 0.05 0.07 %[/color][/size]


    LATEST 5 day track for superstorm “HURRICANE LANE” near HAWAII :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:


    Interesting from NZ with the trade wars going on:

    NewZealand trade balance has a big beat from Exports 5.35bn, expected 4.76bn, prior 4.91bn
    – Trade balance for July -143m expected -400m, prior -113m
    – Imports 5.49bn expected 5.20bn, prior 5.02bn

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