Market Weekly: Aug 13 – Aug 19 2018

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 34 total)
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  • #17710

    Where have we been and where are we…

    [article]1009[/article]

    #17711
    ClemSnide
    Participant

    Thank you again for great insight of the week ahead an wrap up of last week – just turned on my screen and sees you picked the right image …. the Turkish lira $USDTRY is trading around 7.15 up another 11% from Friday’s blood bath.
    We are the stage of Erdogan’s strategy at this point appears to be pleading for everyone not to pull money out of the country. Threats are his passion : “It is industrialists’ duty too to keep this nation on its feet. Otherwise we will set into motion our plan B and C,” he said.

    #17712
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    The Erdogan nonsense continues:

    Erdogan spokesman Fahrettin Altun, Communications Director:
    ” Turkey is fighting an economic war. Our economy is strong and we will win this fight through the government’s cooperation with the people!”

    $USDTRY More rhetoric

    “No person, government or rating agency has the right to threaten Turkey and the Turkish people.”

    #17714
    The
    Participant

    [quote=”TradersCom” post=7490]The Erdogan nonsense continues:

    Erdogan spokesman Fahrettin Altun, Communications Director:
    ” Turkey is fighting an economic war. Our economy is strong and we will win this fight through the government’s cooperation with the people!”

    $USDTRY More rhetoric

    “No person, government or rating agency has the right to threaten Turkey and the Turkish people.”[/quote]

    But no mention of course by Erdogan spokesman Fahrettin Altun about the debt which Turkey owes banks in Spain, France, Italy, and Germany. (Listed in order of which European banks are owed the most by Turkey, according to BIS data … with banks in Spain having the most debt owed by Turkey.) Or that BBVA owns nearly half of the 3rd largest financial center/bank in Turkey.

    Hmm, maybe Erdogan’s plan “B and C” stands for if Turkey doesn’t get its way Erdogan will try to help start a Banking Crisis in Spain. ;>)

    #17715

    [color=teal][b]^^^^^ +1s and GOOD MONDAY MORNING to all 8)

    Futures are DOWN early on … certainly higher OIL, TRADE WARS, T-bills, latest BOOK of the day, etc. does make one CAUTIOUS for the week ahead…. Instead one must be careful of each STEP made at these lofty levels

    WARNING WARNING WILL ROBINSON … not everything is better with “BLUE BONET ON IT” πŸ˜‰ 8)

    P.S. This would make a nice avatar for the TEXAS Rattler ; LOL πŸ˜‰ πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†
    [/b][/color]

    #17717
    Corporal
    Participant

    I tweeted yesterday on the outcome of discussions on coastal “ownership” of the Caspian Sea and it’s seabed.

    Part of article (from SBS TV in Australia) mentioned –

    “Nevertheless, Rouhani hailed a stipulation in the convention that prevents non-Caspian countries from deploying military forces on the sea.

    “The Caspian Sea only belongs to the Caspian states,” he said.”

    I’m not sure if that affects the hotspot map in your Market Weekly.

    Thanks.

    #17718
    Corporal
    Participant

    I tweeted yesterday on the outcome of discussions on coastal “ownership” of the Caspian Sea and it’s seabed.

    [tweet]1028603669485219841[/tweet]

    Part of article (from SBS TV in Australia) mentioned –

    “Nevertheless, Rouhani hailed a stipulation in the convention that prevents non-Caspian countries from deploying military forces on the sea.

    “The Caspian Sea only belongs to the Caspian states,” he said.”

    I’m not sure if that affects the hotspot map in your Market Weekly.

    Thanks.[/quote]

    #17719
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    First economic news from China for the week:

    New yuan loans for July 1450bn CNY (expected 1275bn)

    #17723
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    European shares reverses with SPX – today’s closes

    France CAC + 0.1%

    Then rest down:

    Germany DAX -0.4%
    Italy FTSE MIB -0.58%
    Portugal PSI 20 -1.62%
    Spain Ibex -0.6%
    UK FTSE -0.2%

    #17725
    Helmholtz Watson
    Participant

    Congressional Budget Office lowers GDP at 3.1% in 2018 from 3.3% in April

    Note this does include the 4.1% growth in Q2

    CBO estimates growth in 2019 at 2.4%, unchanged from April’s estimate.

    The CBO is well below the White House’s projections we had POTUS saying GDP growth could be 5% in Q3. CBO says higher US tariffs could add to inflationary pressure and trade policy could discourage business investment.

    #17728

    [size=5][color=red][b]Dow 25,187.70 -125.44 -0.50%
    S&P 500 2,821.93 -11.35 -0.40%
    Nasdaq 7,819.71 -19.40 -0.25%
    Gold 1,200.50 -18.50 -1.52%
    Oil 67.41 -0.22 -0.33%[/b][/color][/size]

    #17729
    The
    Participant

    [quote=”CautiousInvestor” post=7493][color=teal][b]^^^^^ +1s and GOOD MONDAY MORNING to all 8)

    Futures are DOWN early on … certainly higher OIL, TRADE WARS, T-bills, latest BOOK of the day, etc. does make one CAUTIOUS for the week ahead…. Instead one must be careful of each STEP made at these lofty levels

    WARNING WARNING WILL ROBINSON … not everything is better with “BLUE BONET ON IT” πŸ˜‰ 8)

    P.S. This would make a nice avatar for the TEXAS Rattler ; LOL πŸ˜‰ πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†
    [/b][/color]

    Thanks for the avatar idea CI.

    Have to like those “Pit Vipers”. πŸ™‚ Puns intended!

    #17730
    The
    Participant

    [quote=”Helmholtz Watson” post=7503]Congressional Budget Office lowers GDP at 3.1% in 2018 from 3.3% in April

    Note this does include the 4.1% growth in Q2

    CBO estimates growth in 2019 at 2.4%, unchanged from April’s estimate.

    The CBO is well below the White House’s projections we had POTUS saying GDP growth could be 5% in Q3. CBO says higher US tariffs could add to inflationary pressure and trade policy could discourage business investment.[/quote]

    FWIW, over the weekend was reading an economic analyses which utiized a Probit Model … and based upon the Probit Model used by that unmentioned Wall Street firm it forecasted economic growth (aka US GDP) for the USA to be slightly above 3% for the remainder of 2018.

    #17732
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US import prices unchanged as expected.
    US Export prices down -0.5% vs +0.2% expected

    Import prices for prior month were revised to -0.1% vs -0.4%
    import prices ex-petroleum fell -0.1% versus 0.1% expectations, prior month was revised to -0.4% from -0.3%
    import prices year on year rose 4.8% versus 4.5% expected.

    Exports prices for prior month revised to 0.2% versus 0.3%
    Export for prices year on year rose +4.3% versus +5.3% prior

    #17736
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    Bitcoin another one to get trashed below $6000 and towards 2018 lows at $5900 the low from June reached $5777.

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