Market Weekly: April 27 – May 3 2019

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    [size=5][i]Where have we been and where are we
    Wishing all a great week of trading & investing ahead 8)[/i][/size]



    [color=orange][b]After 30 Years Japan Moves from Heisei To Reiwa

    A big week significantly for Japan and I noticed you mention that the Yen did not join the USDX run last week, Something tells me that the
    end of three decades of Japan’s Heisei era is not insignificant for markets.

    Heisei, or Achieving Peace, began in 1989 near the peak of a massive stock market bubble and closes with the country trapped in low growth, no inflation, and negative interest rates.

    The new era that dawns on May 1 is called Reiwa, meaning Beautiful Harmony. It begins when Crown Prince Naruhito ascends the Chrysanthemum Throne.

    From Reuters on the matter: The Bank of Japan’s stimulus toolkit to revive a long-suffering economy is anything but harmonious and yet it’s set to stay. The central bank confirmed recently rates will stay near zero for a long time. But the coming days may not be harmonious or peaceful for currency markets. A 10-day Golden Week holiday kicks off on April 29 and investors are fretting over the risk of a “flash crash” – a violent currency spasm that can occur in times of thin trading turnover.

    The year has already seen two yen spikes and many, including Japan’s housewife-trader brigade – so-called Mrs Watanabes – appear to have bought yen as the holiday approaches. Their short dollar/long yen positions recently reached record highs, stock exchange data showed.


    Perfect image ‘ No Fear’ and at the same time the US dollar is near two-year highs,

    The effect is real with the euro at 22-month lows against the dollar and investors massively short EUR buying put options with size. Emerging-market currencies are also in pain, with Turkish lira and Argentine peso both sharply weaker. Who is holding all this risk, one guess.

    U.S. data needs to keep surprising on the upside for justification but the effect to debt maybe too late to pullback on. The International Monetary Fund sees U.S. growth at 2.3 percent this year. For Germany, the forecast is 0.8 percent. Canada, Sweden and Australia hint at more policy easing, there is more presure on the dollar to stay up.


    European Quarterly earnings in Europe with a third of results in better than expected

    In my weekend reading i noticed that two-thirds of European companies’ results have beaten expectations, and they point to earnings growth of 4.5 percent year-on-year. Financials have delivered the biggest surprises, according to an analysis by Barclays.

    Mow caution here as like US company beats that might just show how low expectations were.

    The latest I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv shows analysts on average expect first-quarter earnings-per-share for STOXX 600-listed companies to fall 4.2 percent. That would be their worst quarter since 2016 and down sharply from an estimated 3.4 percent just a week earlier. Those estimates may end up being a little too bearish as earnings season goes on, quelling worries that Europe is heading toward a corporate recession.

    GSK and Reckitt Benckiser will give the market a glimpse of the health of the consumer products market and spending on everything from toothpaste, washing powder and paracetamol.

    Helmholtz Watson

    No Brexit This Week

    Telegraph deputy political editor Steven Swinford reports Brexit is off this week at least as it has been taken off the agenda for tomorrow and replaced by Northern Irish business.

    Cable interest will be on the May 2 BOE decision the UK Markit PMI


    [size=5][b]Avengers Endgame obliterates records with $1.2B opening

    IMDB rating 9.1 out of 10


    US March PCE core +1.6% vs +1.7% y/y expected

    Prior +1.7% revised from +1.8%)

    PCE core m/m +0.2% vs +0.1% expected
    Prior m/m -0.1% (revised to +0.1%)
    Deflator +1.5% y/y vs +1.6% expected
    Prior deflator +1.4% (revised to +1.3%
    Deflator m/m +0.2% vs +0.3% expected


    US March Personal income +0.1% vs +0.4% expected

    Prior personal income +0.2%

    Personal spending +0.9% vs +0.7% expected

    Prior personal spending +0.1%


    [color=red][b]Dallas Fed manufacturing activity +2.0 vs +10.0 expected
    Prior +8.3 (revised to +6.9)
    Output +12.4 vs +10.5


    [color=purple][size=5][i]Wow – Equities, USA economy, & even the Avengers soaring to NEW RECORDS 8)
    Still be cautious at these lofty levels & even take profits to lock great gains :unsure:
    Don’t try to be a trading HERO every day — but let’s enjoy while we can ๐Ÿ˜‰ :)[/i][/size][/color]
    [color=limegreen][size=6][b]Dow 26,554.39 11.06 0.04%
    S&P 500 2,943.03 3.15 0.11%
    Nasdaq 8,161.85 15.46 0.19%
    Gold 1,281.60 -7.20 -0.56%
    Oil 63.60 0.30 0.47% [/b][/size][/color]


    [color=purple][size=5][i]Google missed as “ALPHABET forgot to dot the I’s and cross the Ts :whistle:
    an 8% loss but they were already soaring anyway 8)

    Still all equity markets are holding up strong in USA ๐Ÿ™‚
    We would like to be a fly on wall in FED meeting :ohmy:
    Do we even sell in MAY and go away :dry: :woohoo:[/i][/size] [/color]

    [size=5][b][color=green]Dow 26,592.91 38.52 0.15%
    S&P 500 2,945.83 2.80 0.10%[/color]
    Nasdaq 8,095.39 -66.47 -0.81%
    Gold 1,284.70 -1.00 -0.08%
    Oil 63.46 -0.45 -0.70%[/b][/size]


    [color=purple][size=5][i]Good WED morning & welcome to month of MAY 8)
    LOL@#45 tweet storm on FOMC – telling them they need to come down 100 basis points ๐Ÿ˜‰ :woohoo:
    We’re almost in a summer like pattern with TEMPs in upper 80F ๐Ÿ™‚
    Markets are set to open more positively today … DOW up 60 points
    wishing a great day to all :)[/i][/size][/color]


    [size=5][i]WOW – blowout jobs numbers this morning ๐Ÿ™‚
    ADP +275,000 new jobs added — better than expected jobs report
    almost twice what was expected ๐Ÿ˜†

    but OHHHH the humany — as a 25bps could come in 2019 now :ohmy:
    as Jerome + FOMC may need to cool the jets on this hot economy
    IOW the FED HAWKS may be circling soon :woohoo:[/i][/size]

    [color=red][size=5][b]Dow 26,430.14 -162.77 -0.61%
    S&P 500 2,923.73 -22.10 -0.75%
    Nasdaq 8,049.64 -45.75 -0.57%
    Gold 1,277.60 -8.10 -0.63%
    Oil 63.56 -0.35 -0.55%[/b][/size][/color]

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