Market Weekly: April 1 – 6 2019

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    [color=purple][size=5][i]Where have we been and where are we …
    Hope it is a great week of trading & investing for all 8)
    Beware of pranksters especially on April 1st 😉
    As members of the herd are anxious for those spring tulips :woohoo:[/i][/size][/color]



    Indeed these markets are living in a surreal world … some would say the twight zone ..


    [size=5]Getting Messier By the Hour UK Sunday Times Says May’s government faces ‘total collapse’ over Brexit[/size]

    British Prime Minister Theresa May risks the “total collapse” of her government if she fails to get her battered Brexit deal through parliament, the Sunday Times newspaper said, amid growing speculation that she might call an early election.

    The times said at least six pro-European Union senior ministers will resign if she opts for a potentially damaging no-deal departure from the EU.

    At the same time, rival ministers who support Brexit were threatening to quit if May decides to stay close to the EU with a customs union or if she sought a long delay to Brexit, the Sunday Times said.

    May’s Brexit strategy is in tatters after the exit deal she hammered out with other EU leaders was rejected for a third time by the House of Commons on Friday, the day that Britain was supposed to leave the bloc. newspaper points out opposing factions within the Conservatives:

    Early Election?

    The Mail on Sunday newspaper said May’s advisors were divided over whether she should call an early election if she fails to win support for her Brexit deal from parliament in the coming week.

    The newspaper said a possible “run-off” vote could take place on Tuesday in parliament between May’s deal and whatever alternative emerges as the most popular from voting by lawmakers on Monday.

    That meant an election could be called as early as Wednesday, the newspaper said, without citing sources.

    Custom Union

    One of the most popular alternatives among lawmakers, including Labour members, is Britain staying in a customs union with the EU, an option also favored by many business leaders.

    Brexit supporters say a customs union would deny Britain the opportunity to strike trade deals around the world.

    No Deal Brexit

    On Saturday, one lawmaker said Conservative members of parliament had written to May telling her to lead Britain out of the EU in the coming months, even if it means a potentially damaging no-deal Brexit.

    The Sun newspaper said the letter was signed by 170 of the 314 Conservative lawmakers in parliament, including 10 cabinet ministers.


    [size=5][i]^^^ +1s … and as noted in perhaps Rod’s most creative work
    all DEER, BULLS, BEARS, and even HUMANS must be CAUTIOUS in days ahead
    Geo-poltical issues are off the chart (BREXIT, possible border closure, etc) :ohmy:

    Because to “COOKBOOK – lol 😉 :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:[/i][/size]


    [size=5][i]GOOD MONDAY MORNING & Happy April Fool’s Day
    BRRRRRRRRRRRRR … only 22F on top of mtn
    FUTURES are UP (DOW = +215)

    A few selections from ROCK & ROLL HALL OF FAME 2019 this weekend 8)[/i][/size]


    [size=5][color=red][b]US February Advanced Retail Sales -0.2% v +0.3% expected
    Prior +0.7% (revised from +0.2%)[/b][/color][/size]

    Ex autos -0.4% vs +0.3% exp [color=green]Prior ex +0.9% (revised to +1.4%)

    Ex autos and gas -0.6% vs +0.3% exp [color=green]Prior +1.2% (revised to +1.7%)
    [/color]Control group -0.2% vs +0.3% exp Prior +1.1% (revised to +1.7%)


    [size=5][color=green][b]US Feb Construction Spending 1.0% vs -0.2% est.
    Prior month revised to 2.5% vs 1.3%[/b][/color][/size]

    Private residential construction rose 0.7% vs 1.8% last month
    Private residential home improvement spending rose 3.6%
    Private non-residential construction fell -0.5% vs. 1.1% last month
    Public construction rose 3.6% vs 5.7% last month
    Government construction was 24.7% of total in Feb
    State and local construction rose 3.8% after rising 5.7% in January
    Fed construction rose 0.9% vs 5.7% last month.


    US January business inventories +0.8% v +0.5% expected

    Prior +0.6% (revised to +0.8%)

    Inventories at wholesalers increased the most since September 2012 (1.2 percent vs 1.1 percent in December) and those at manufacturers also rose at a faster pace (0.5 percent vs 0.1 percent).

    Inventories at retailers went up less (0.8 percent vs 1.1 percent).

    Retail inventories excluding autos, which go into the calculation of GDP, increased 0.6 percent in January after rising 1.3 percent in the prior month.

    Business Inventories in the United States averaged 0.28 percent from 1992 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1.30 percent in May of 1994 and a record low of -2 percent in December of 2008.


    ([size=5][i]some resources bookmarked in link below)

    While the 6 new FED schedules confused me initially – the 2019 taxes are indeed EASIER than in past — once you learn the DIFFs

    You will lose some DEDUCTIONS in moving to $24,000 for example, so it was more of break even (but we did better than if changes did not occur) … I’m actually nearing completion…. Overall I was pleased with slightly lower taxes as we did lose a bunch of DEDUCTs – and did experience a little less true tax as bottom line 🙂

    The IRS did make it a tad more complex, as one must go thru SCHED 1-6 & see if anything fits

    STATE TAXES MAY INCREASE — Also in VIRGINIA there is a rule that if you don’t go SCHEDULE-A on 1040, you must go STD-DEDUCT on Virginia form ($6,000 for a couple v. $24,000. … and we lost well over $10K in tax deductibility — so STATE TAXES were a Sticker shock :ohmy:


    Don’t wait until April 14th to take the celephane wrapper off the new 1040 process 😉 :woohoo:


    [color=green][size=5][b]Dow 26,258.42 329.74 1.27%
    S&P 500 2,867.19 32.79 1.16%
    Nasdaq 7,828.91 99.59 1.29%
    GlobalDow 3,041.10 39.12 1.30%
    Gold 1,292.20 -6.30 -0.49%
    Oil 61.78 1.64 2.73% [/b][/size][/color]

    [size=5][i]TIme to celebrate great finish in market
    with a favorite artist & a couple of “best of” albums
    2nd video is a slide show of 00s of nature scenes & excellent also)

    Every album by Paul Hardcastle is a keeper for me (esp. Jazzmaster series I-IV)
    Helen Rodgers (around year 2000) is one of all time best female vocalists
    If I were confined to desert island & had to pick a few albums, these would be included 8)[/i][/size]


    [color=red][size=5][b]US February prelim durable goods orders -1.6% vs -1.8% expected
    Prior +0.3% (revised to +0.1%)

    Ex transportation +0.1% vs +0.1% expected
    Prior ex transportation -0.2% (revised to -0.1%)

    Orders non-defense ex air -0.1% vs +0.1% expected
    Prior orders non-defense ex air +0.8% (revised to +0.9%)

    Shipments non-defense ex air 0.0% vs -0.1%
    Prior shipments non-defense ex air +0.8% (revised to +1.0%)


    [color=aqua][size=5][b]BRRRRRRR … LET IT SNOW in SW VIRGINIA
    and this ain’t no APRIL FOOLs joke either 😉 8)[/b][/size][/color]


    [size=5][b]Dow 26,179.13 -79.29 -0.30%
    [color=green]S&P 500 2,867.24 0.05 0.00%
    Nasdaq 7,848.69 19.78 0.25% [/color]
    Gold 1,296.20 2.00 0.15%
    Oil 62.51 0.92 1.49%[/b][/size]


    [color=green][size=5][b]WOW – BITCOIN (aka FAKE $$$ – lol) is on the move
    it sat for months in the $3500 range & is up 15% today alone to $4900
    in just a couple of days … if you do just a 1 month chart you can see sharp spike
    may be some good breaking news on blockchain & krytonite currency 😉 🙂


    S&P Futures Higher on FT Headline “US and China draw closer to final trade agreement”

    But There are Plenty of Buts

    Top US and Chinese officials have resolved most of the issues standing in the way of a deal
    but are still haggling over how to implement and enforce the agreement

    FT cite ‘people briefed on the talks’

    Liu He, China’s vice-premier preparing to meet US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, the , and US Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin for a potentially deal making negotiation session starting Wednesday in Washington.

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