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US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4: 8.7% (prev 8.5%)
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 8.7 percent on January 8, up from 8.5 percent on January 7. After this morning’s releases of the employment situation report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 5.4 percent and 35.4 percent, respectively, to 5.5 percent and 35.6 percent, respectively.
Fed’s Barkin on Jobs
Expects Job Market To Make Lot Of Progress In 2021
Unemployment Rate Not A Good Measure For Where Economy Is Now
Labour Force Participation Bigger Issue, It Has Taken A Big Hit
A Lot Of Jobs Will Come Back With VaccinesFed Has Tools To Keep Inflation Under Control
JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – NOVEMBER 2020
The number of job openings was little changed at 6.5 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 6.0 million while total separations increased to 5.4 million. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.2 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate increased to 1.4 percent. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by four geographic regions.
Job Openings
On the last business day of November, the number and rate of job openings were little changed at 6.5 million and 4.4 percent, respectively. Job openings decreased in durable goods manufacturing (-48,000), information (-45,000), and educational services (-21,000). The number of job openings was little
changed in all four regions.Over the year, the number of job openings (not seasonally adjusted) was little changed in November. Job openings decreased in a number of industries over the year with the largest decreases in accommodation and food services; transportation, warehousing, and utilities; and information. The job openings level increased in nondurable goods manufacturing and in other services. The number of job openings was little changed in all four regions. (See table 7.)
Hires
In November, the number of hires was little changed at 6.0 million, and the hires rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent. Hires increased in professional and business services (+175,000) and mining and logging (+13,000). Hires decreased in accommodation and food services (-73,000), other services (-67,000), and information (-43,000). The number of hires was little changed in all four regions. (See table 2.)
The number of hires in November (not seasonally adjusted) was little changed over the year. Hires increased in professional and business services; transportation, warehousing, and utilities; and nondurable goods manufacturing. Hires decreased in accommodation and food services and in information. The number of hires increased in the South region. (See table 8.)
Separations
Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
In November, the number of total separations increased rate was little changed at 3.8 percent. Total separations increased in accommodation and food services
(+326,000). The total separations level decreased in federal government (-70,000) and real estate and rental and leasing (-27,000). Total separations increased in the West region. (See table 3.)Over the year, the number of total separations (not seasonally adjusted) was little changed. Total separations increased in accommodation and food services and in federal government. Total separations decreased in retail trade and in arts, entertainment, and recreation. The number of total separations was little changed in all four regions. (See table 9.)
In November, the number of quits was little changed at 3.2 million, and the quits rate was unchanged at 2.2 percent. Quits increased in accommodation and food services (+64,000). The quits level decreased in health care and social assistance (-52,000), real estate and rental and leasing (-17,000), and federal
government (-6,000). The number of quits was little changed in all four regions. (See table 4.)Over the year, the number of quits (not seasonally adjusted) decreased to 2.7 million (-241,000). Quits declined in several industries, with the largest decreases in retail trade; arts, entertainment, and recreation; and finance and insurance. Quits increased in durable goods manufacturing and in federal government. The number of quits decreased in the West region. (See table 10.)
The number and rate of layoffs and discharges increased to 2.0 million (+295,000) and 1.4 percent, respectively in November. The number of layoffs and discharges increased in accommodation and food services (+263,000), health care and social assistance (+42,000), and state and local government, excluding education (+21,000). Layoffs and discharges decreased in federal government (-54,000), but the overall level remained high due to the continued release of 2020 temporary Census workers in November. Layoffs and discharges increased in the West region.
Initial claims hit highest level since August 965K vs 789K estimate
For the week ending January 9, initial claims spiked by 181,000 to 965,000. That’s the highest claims number since August. Continuing claims for the week ending January 2 increased by 199,000 to 5.271 million.
The key takeaway from the report for the market is that it simply paints the need for additional stimulus; hence, this bad news gets interpreted as good news.
The four-week moving average of initial claims increased by 18,250 to 834,250. The average stood at 214,250 in the same week a year ago.
The four-week moving average for continuing claims decreased by 59,000 to 5,215,750. The average stood at 1,744,500 in the same week a year ago.
The total number of continued weeks claims for benefits in all programs was 18406,940 for the week ending December 26, versus 2,176,360 in the same week a year ago.
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