Japan Trade Continues To Collapse, Imports and Exports Down Most in Three Years

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    The October trade balance shows a much smaller…



    Japan’s Economy minister Nishimura Comments on Trade Report

    The trade war has weakened Japan’s exports and also production via a drop in overseas demand
    Global economy affects Japan’s exports, production, jobs and investment

    Japanese domestic demand is solid
    Sales tax hike affects consumption – but can avoid major post-tax-hike impact by implementing counter measures
    Wants companies to use cash reserves for future investment

    U.S. still has incentive to join TPP
    Need robust economic measures to put the economy on growth path, and Japanese PM Abe instructed him to make stimulus package sizable

    Helmholtz Watson

    Japan November Jibun Bank / Markit flash PMIs for Manufacturing 48.6 (prior 48.4) & Services 50.4 (prior 50.3)

    Composite 50.4, prior 49.8

    Comment from IHS Markit:

    “October PMI data was difficult to interpret as a result of the temporary negative shocks caused by the sales tax and typhoon. However, we can now deduce from the November PMI data that there is a strong possibility of Japan’s economy contracting in the fourth quarter. We have seen little rebound following these temporary factors, especially in the service sector where the impact of the tax rise and poor weather was most prominent.

    “The service sector, which was boasting reasonable rates of growth up until September, has recorded a marked easing in growth momentum. With manufacturing malaise still strikingly apparent, PMl-implied growth rates in the service sector are insufficient to offset Japan’s industrial woes.

    “Slack in export demand, the protracted US-China trade war and limited policy levers stack up against the chances of improvements in Japan’s economy. Without any drive from the service sector, a quarterly contraction in Q4 seems highly likely.”


    Helmholtz Watson

    Then not long after Reuters poll Oil falls back after Reuters reports
    OPEC and Russia will like ease cuts in August – report

    Reuters chatter citing four sources

    Note t not entirely unexpected. OPEC and Russia are not yet extending record oil cuts into August and will likely unwind some of the cuts.

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