Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Year End Outlook

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  • #49657
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Natural Gas Futures Mind the Weekend Gap as #Weather model shift again – as they will heading into Christmas #GFS #WX

    – Gap down to $6 .136 -0.464 -7.03%
    (Follows #natgas up 5.86% last week)
    – EU Gas Cap also in the mix

    #49712
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    HH Natural Gas Futures continues to break down, down another -7.76% at $5.397 -0.454
    11- to 15-day period (Dec. 30-Jan.3) trended warmer in latest #WX forecast
    Broke major supports, Option delta chase
    Reports Freeport taking gas on

    #49715
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Maxar’s updated six- to 10-day forecast, covering Christmas day through Dec. 29, showed a pattern change emerging “as a trough deepens from the northern to the eastern Pacific, effectively redirecting the air flow downstream from a warmer Pacific source region.

    “Still, the period starts with a widespread coverage of much and strong below normal temperatures in the Eastern half, with sub-zero lows in Chicago and teens in Atlanta and New York on day six,” the forecaster added. “Temperatures turn warmer from this point, with aboves expanding from West to Central and the East returning to normal late in the period.”

    #49716
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    EBW Analytics Group observed a 33 Bcf day/day decline in weather-driven demand expectations for the Dec. 30-Jan. 5 storage period based on the latest forecasts.

    “The ability of the market to see past the coming cold blast is central to the precipitous price decline,” EBW analyst Eli Rubin said. “Since Friday, the first week of January has transitioned from risks of extended, havoc-wreaking cold to a very balmy outlook” that would result in a sizable week/week drop-off in natural gas demand.

    Still, even as “seasonal risks have vastly diminished, the potential for profit-taking by shorts ahead of a still-substantial cold blast poses upside price risks ahead of the Christmas holiday weekend,” Rubin added.

    #49728
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Another brutal day for nat gas longs,
    HH Futures settled 5.3260 -0.525 -11.14%

    Reminder Do Not venture into NG if you are not aware of the risks, understand at times you are purely Punting on Weather.
    – A tip, charts create discipline.

    #49755
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Natural Gas Futures open higher $5.527 0.201 +3.77%

    #ArcticBlast headed for Rockies, Plains and & into Texas
    Risk of hard freeze over production areas, flows expected to drop several Bcf to near 95 Bcf/d
    But HDD warm for Dec. 29-Jan. 4 still

    #49502
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US benchmark HH Natural gas futures finished down 24.02% last week, this was despite the deadly arctic blast that hit America, including the Henry Hub
    [See the full post at: Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Year End Outlook]

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