How Has The US Job Situation Improved in June? What to Expect.

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    What will June show us? The US Labor…


    Helmholtz Watson

    US JOLTS May job openings 5397K vs 4500K expected

    Prior 5046K revised to 4996K (5 year low)
    Quits at 1.6% v 1.4% prior

    Largest gains in openings were in accommodation and food services (+196,000), retail trade (+147,000), and construction (+118,000), while decreased in information (-55,000), federal government (-37,000), and educational services (-27,000).

    The number of hires jumped by 2.4 million to a series high of 6.5 million, the largest monthly increase since the series began, while total separations decreased by a record 5.8 million to 4.1 million.

    Helmholtz Watson

    US weekly jobless claims 1314K v 1375K expected for the week ending July 4

    Prior 1427K (revised to 1413K)

    Continuing claims 18032K vs 18750K exp
    Prior 19290K (revised to 18760K)

    PUC claims 1,038,905 vs 996,842 a week ago (highest since week of May 22)
    32.92m on some form of aid in the week of June 20

    The latest number lifted the total reported since March 21st to 50.0 million, as record spikes in coronavirus infections forced several states to scale back or pause the reopening of their economies, sending workers home again.

    Helmholtz Watson

    [b]US wholesale inventories for May (F) -1.2% v. -1.2% estimate[/b]
    April inventories rose 0.2%

    Wholesale trade sales for May rose 5.4% vs. 4.5% estimate. In April the wholesale trade sales fell -16.4%. revised higher from -16.9% previously reported


    US initial jobless claims 1300K v 1250K estimate

    Prior week revised to 1310K from 1314K previously reported
    4 week moving average initial claims 1375K vs 1435K last week

    Continuing claims17338K v 17500K estimate.
    Prior week revised to 17760K vs 18062K
    4 week moving average continuing claims 18272.25K vs 19010K last week

    Helmholtz Watson

    Chicago Fed Pres. Charlie Evans

    controlling virus, wearing masks is important to getting consumers feeling comfortable
    his baseline outlook is for US second-quarter to shrink by 30 to 35%, with strong growth in the 2nd half
    says continuing virus is spread is likely to put a damper on consumer sentiment
    sees 9% or 9.5% unemployment at the end of the year, 6.5% next year
    if there is a 2nd wave of outbreak, would expect worse unemployment growth
    he expects US GDP to get back into prior peak by middle or late 2022
    policy needs to be positioned against downside risks
    very importantly get inflation up to Fed’s 2% goal
    it’s not hard to figure out that Fed needs to provide accommodation 1 unemployment is high and inflation is low

    Fed’s Evans is a nonvoting member this year.


    Initial jobless claims for week ending July 18 increased by 109,000 to 1.416 million v 1.3055 million expected

    The 18th straight week over one million.

    The four-week moving average for initial claims decreased by 16,500 to 1,360,250.

    Continuing claims for the week ending July 11 decreased by 1,107,000 to 16.197 million.

    Jump in initial claims is an early reflection of the adverse impact of states pausing or rolling back their reopening activity due to the rise in coronavirus cases.

    The four-week moving average for continuing claims decreased by 758,500 to 17,505,250.

    The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.2% for the week ending July 11 versus 11.9% in the prior week.

    The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 4 was 31,802,715 versus 1,725,953 in the same week a year ago.

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