Forex Weekly Outlook – Surging Global Bond yields and Acute Currency Market Instability Boost Dollar

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    Johnson prepares fightback as allies admit confidence vote now likely

    The vote will be triggered if 54 MPs in his party send letters in support of the vote. 180 votes would then be needed to remove him as PM.

    In a remarkable shift in tone, the business minister Paul Scully acknowledged on Sunday night that a vote of no confidence “might well happen”, but insisted Johnson would “face it down”. “Whatever happens, we’ve got to get back to governing, to tackle the things that people want us to do on a day-to-day basis.”

    Hours earlier, the transport secretary, Grant Shapps, had said he did not think there would be a vote this week.

    Just 18 MPs have publicly declared that they have sent a letter, but MPs who are running the numbers believe there are at least 70 who have now publicly expressed a lack of faith in the prime minister.

    Most MPs seem resigned that the dam will break, but the timing is virtually impossible to guess given the lack of coordinated effort. “It’s all about individual MPs. There’s not even any WhatsApp groups as far as I know,” said one MP who opposes Johnson.

    Most MPs are prepared to bet that a challenge is imminent. “I’d say we were already there, and when Graham Brady [the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee, who receives the letters] gets back to his office on Monday, there will be a load more,” the MP said. “I’d expect the vote on Wednesday.”

    The vote is a secret, in-person ballot held in parliament. To survive in office, a Tory leader requires the backing of a minimum of half of his MPs plus one, meaning Johnson would need the support of at least 180 of his parliamentary party.

    “Getting to 180 is a big ask, but it’s a secret ballot,” one MP said. “I think a third of the payroll could go against him. If it’s a third of them, and two-thirds of backbenchers, suddenly you’re in business.


    PBOC set onshore yuan #USDCNY reference rate for today at 6.6691 (vs. estimate at 6.6723) previous close was 6.6600.
    We saw offshore yuan #USDCNH weaken after rising all week Friday


    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: +40.0
    10 yr Note: 2.963%
    USD/JPY: 130.74 -0.09
    EUR/USD: 1.0749 +0.0030
    Europe: FTSE: 1.3% DAX: +1.1% CAC: +1.2%
    Asia: Hang Seng: +2.7% Shanghai: +1.3% Nikkei: +0.6%
    Gold (1854.00 +3.80) Silver (22.28 +0.37) Crude (119.29 +0.36)


    The global equity markets are off to a strong start to the week. S&P Futures are up about 40 points to trade around the 4148 area. The market has seen a steady bid throughout the overnight session. The low was established early at 4104.50. Spoos have just recently come off the high of 4156.50.

    In Asia, both China and Japan advanced on Monday. The Shanghai Composite took flight after Beijing loosened COVID-19 lockdowns and chatter emerged of possible tariff cuts with the US. In Japan, the Nikkei was supported by reports that the government was mulling a restart to its “Go To Travel” program. This helped names such as ANA Holdings, West Japan Railway and East Japan Railway gins 3-5%.

    In Europe, the major bourse are trading higher by over 1%. Financials are among the leaders this morning with lenders such as Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale up 3-4%. With Covid restrictions lifting in China, luxury retailers such as LVMH and Kering are advancing by 1-2%.


    Yen Continues its fall after Kuroda ‘disinterest’, #USDJPY nears 133.00.

    Japanese economy minister says “closely watching impact of FX moves on the economy BUT Wants to refrain from commenting on #Forex levels”


    Forex Weekly Analysis and Outlook – US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar,
    [See the full post at: Forex Weekly Outlook – Surging Global Bond yields and Acute Currency Market Instability Boost Dollar]

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