Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged As Expected

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    Helmholtz Watson

    The Federal Reserve as expected left rates unchanged…


    Super Harley

    Powell and Trump won’t be enjoying the latest comments from Japan finance minister Aso, says Fed rate hikes are not a bad thing as they help to sustain economic growth


    Ahead of the Fed — US MBA mortgage applications W/E 14 December -5.8% vs +1.6% prior

    From the Mortgage Bankers Association

    Purchase index 238.6 vs 256.1 prior
    Market index 325.9 vs 346.0 prior
    Refinancing index 832.2 vs 851.6 prior
    30-year mortgage rate 4.94% vs 4.96% prior

    Helmholtz Watson

    Short covering with a little buying on hope into the #FOMC Meet and greet …

    $DJIA 23968.13 +292.49 1.24%
    #Nasdaq 6850.99 +67.08 0.99%
    $SPX 2575.46 +29.30 1.15%
    $RUT 2000 1390.46 +13.28 0.96%


    FOMC Press Conference Live December 19, 2018 Live 2.30 pm ET



    For the Fed Put Fans..

    Ex NY Fed chief Dudley says:
    “Fed doesn’t care about market prices for themselves”
    “Fed is not there to take away the markets pain”


    Fed dialed it back a little at the meeting
    The Fed may not have dialed back is much as the market wanted
    important to focus on the Fed’s outlook
    Fed continuing to tighten as it sees above trend growth
    Tighter financial conditions probably unnecessary thing
    If the economy starts to weaken, the Fed would definitely pause
    Two or three rate hikes by Fed seems most likely


    Fed’s Mester on Wharton Business Radio

    Global outlook has softened somewhat
    Economy doing quite well, very good job growth
    We’re looking at global outlook and financial market developments
    Outlook for economy fundamentally good, there are risks however
    The Fed is back to normal way of looking at policy
    Fed policy can respond to material changes in the 0utlook
    Hard to sustain 3% GDP growth in longer run
    will carefully monitor what markets saying about economy
    market seeing different outlook been visible in data
    I’ve been concerned about high leveraged lending levels
    Banking system in good shape relative to pre-crisis
    surprised by the lack of inflation but that allows patience

    Helmholtz Watson

    Minutes of the December 18-19, 2018 FOMC meeting


    Officials felt timing and extent of future hikes is less clear
    A few officials favored no hike at meeting
    Changes in statement language meant to convey that it judged ‘a relatively limited amount of additional tightening would likely be appropriate’
    Recent developments including financial market volatility and concerns about global growth made the appropriate extend and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier
    Fed should assess impact of risks that have become more pronounced in recent months
    Discussed transitioning away from use of forward guidance language in future post-meeting statements

    Keep in mind since then we have crashed, had the Powell put among other things from the Fed

    Helmholtz Watson

    Fed’s Kashkari on a moderated forum

    Wage growth hasn’t really taken off yet
    We’ve been coming up low on our inflation target
    No need to tap the brakes on economy as long as inflation low
    Monetary policy is meant to be non-political

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