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Highlights of Fed chair Powell press conference
US economy is doing very well
Sees 4th hike in 2018 as more likely
Fed to hold press conferences after every meeting from January 2019
The Fed Central tendencies will remain on an quarterly basis
Recent inflation data have been encouraging but too soon to declare victory
Recent rising oil prices will likely push inflation above 2% over next few months but should be transitory
Fed expects to make further gradual increases in interest rates
Over the next year or so interest rates will move close to neutral levels
The FOMC rate forecast 2.38% at end of 2018, 3.13% in 2019 and 3.38% in 2020
Balance sheet reduction is proceeding smoothlyFOMC meeting minutes from June 2018 FOMC meeting
Headlines
Gradual hikes needed amid very strong economy though.
Price moves support outlook for 2% inflation
some officials: running economy to hot risks economic downturn
Saw fiscal policy supporting economic growth
A few beneficial saw US fiscal policy as upside risk
Broad support for gradual rate hikes
Many business contacts concerned by risks from a trade war
Downside risks from emerging markets, Europe
important to watch yield curve slope
Fed policymakers discussed flattening of yield curve
Fed staff gave a presentation on recession risks based on spread between current Fed funds rate expected rate several quarters ahead
Trade worries have scaled back capital spending for some
Policymakers voted on statement said for guidance language was no longer appropriate in light of economies strength and expected rate path
A few Fed policymakers said Fed might want to discuss before long how to conduct monetary policy best when reserve balances fall appreciably
Many policymakers send gradual hikes could take Fed funds rate above the neutral level sometime next year
A few Fed policymakers said inflation temporarily about 2% could help anchor inflationary expectations
Almost all policymakers watching rate hike: 1 policymaker said postponing hike could help push inflation expectations higher
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