NY Fed Williams Expects US Jobless Rate to Rise from 3.7% to 4.5-5.0%

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    NY Fed Pres. Williams speaking:

    Debate of 50-75 basis points is right position for July meeting
    More data to come, but Fed still need to move expeditiously to more normal rate levels
    Fed funds rate at 3% to 3.5% by year end, but a lot of uncertainty after that
    Terminal level of rate hike cycle will hinge on behavior of inflation , and inflation expectations
    rising market interest rates are affecting the economy, but full effect of the Fed pivoted won’t be apparent until later in the year
    spending data is probably the 1st place where global slowdown will be seen. Jobs will lag
    expects to get some help from supply-side, but demand and supply must be aligned
    commodity price reversals could have a disinflationary impact
    recession not base case but clear the economy is slowing
    negative GDP in Q1 enter data into the spring not a signal of something fundamentally negative


    Head up Tomorrow’s #Fed dribble:

    Tuesday, 12 July 2022 –
    12.30 ET Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Rotary Club of Charlotte, in Charlotte, N.C
    Follows up Williams last week:


    The New York Fed president John Williams, who is a voting member of the FOMC was speaking at a virtual speech to the Economics Club of New York contin
    [See the full post at: NY Fed Williams Expects US Jobless Rate to Rise from 3.7% to 4.5-5.0%]

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