ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged As Expected, Confirms QE Programme Halt

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  • #19257
    Helmholtz Watson
    Participant

    ECB interest rates on the main refinancing operations…

    [article]1249[/article]

    #19259
    Helmholtz Watson
    Participant

    [b]Draghi’s opening statement Highlights
    [/b]
    Weaker data reflects softer external demand
    Inflation will continue to converge
    Underlying strength fuels confidence in inflation
    Reinvestment and enhanced rate guidance to provide support
    Sees somewhat slower growth momentum ahead
    Business investment is benefitting from domestic demand
    Headline inflation likely to decrease in the coming months, mostly due to oil
    Measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted but domestic pressures strengthening
    Underlying inflation to increase in medium term
    Blames softer external demand and trade for softer growth outlook
    Governments need to rebuild fiscal buffers

    #19260
    Helmholtz Watson
    Participant

    [size=5][color=red][b]ECB cuts 2018 and 2019 growth forecasts, lowers 2019 inflation view
    [/b][/color][/size]
    The prior forecasts were from September

    Forecasts for GDP growth:
    2018 1.9% vs +2.0% prior
    2019 1.7% vs +1.8% prior
    2020 1.7% vs +1.7% prior
    2021 1.5% (first forecast for 2021)

    Inflation forecasts
    2018 1.8% vs +1.7% prior
    2019 1.6% vs +1.7% prior
    2020 1.7% vs +1.7% prior
    2021 1.8% (first forecast for 2021)
    2019 inflation ex food and energy seen at 1.4% vs 1.5% prior

    #19263
    Truman
    Participant

    Draghi ” Headline inflation likely to decrease in the coming months, mostly due to oil” – So what happens if oil prices rise?

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